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Dünyada Yaşanan 1980- 2008 Yılı Krizlerinde Para Politikası Uygulaması, Finansal Riskler ve Uluslararası Rezervlerin Durumu

Year 2020, Volume: 9 Issue: 3, 129 - 159, 01.09.2020

Abstract

Özellikle 1980-2008 arasında ortaya çıkan krizlerin büyük ölçüde, gelişen ve gelişmekte ülkelerin para piyasalarında ortaya çıkması, bununla birlikte rezervlerdeki ani artışların bu dönemlere rastlaması, merkez bankalarının bu rezervleri krizlere karşı kalkan olarak kullanma isteklerinin bir sonucu olarak görülmesine neden olmuştur.
Merkez bankası yabacı para rezerv seviyesini kısa dönemli finans piyasasına giren yabancı sermayenin ani çıkışlarında ortaya çıkabilecek döviz kuru risklerinden kurtulmak amacıyla tutuyorsa, ihtiyaç duyabileceği rezerv ne seviyede olmalıdır?
Rezervlerin oluşması başka risklerin oluşmasına neden olabilir mi? Uygulamada her işlemin piyasaya ciddi etkileri olacağından ekonomide ortaya çıkan bu durum nasıl giderilecektir? Makroekonomik dengeler nasıl korunacak bu işlemler sırasındaki para politikası nasıl yönlendirilecektir?
Merkez bankalarının fiyat ve finansal istikrar hedeflerini sağlama faaliyetleri sonunda bilançolarında oluşan rezervlerin makroekonomik dengeler üzerinde nasıl etki oluşturduğu bilinmektedir. Bu doğrultuda merkez bankasının para politikası uygulaması tanımlarına açıklık getirilmelidir. Bu doğrultuda para politikası araçlarından, operasyonel hedeflere ve para politikası ara hedeflerine uygun tanımlar bulunmalıdır.

References

  • Aizenman J., M. Chinn ve H. Ito (2010-2011), “Surfing the Waves of Globalization, Asia and Financial Globalization in the Context of Trilemma,” National Bureau of Economic Research. Working Paper No. 15876 Issued in April 2010.
  • Aizenman, J. (2009), “Hoarding International Reserves versus a Pigovian Tax scheme: Reflections on the Deleveraging Crisis of 2008-9, and a Cost Benefit Analysis,” NBER Working Paper # 15484.
  • Aizenman, J. ve J. Lee (2007), “International Reserves: Precautionary versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence,” Open Economies Review, 18(2): 191-214.
  • Aizenman, J. ve J. Lee (2008), “Financial Versus Monetary Mercantilism -- Long-Run View of Large International Reserves Hoarding,” The World Economy, 31(5): 593-611.
  • Aizenman, J ve Y. Sun (2009), “The Financial Crisis and Sizable International Reserves Depletion: From 'Fear of Floating' to the 'Fear of Losing International Reserves'?” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 15308. http://www.nber.org/papers/w1530
  • Bardhan A. ve D. Jaffee (2007), “The Impact of Global Capital Flows and Foreign Financing on US Mortgage and Treasury Interest Rates,” Special Report, Research Institute for Housing America.
  • Bardhan, P. (2001), “The Impact of Globalization on the Poor,” University of California at Berkeley.
  • Bensaid B. ve O. Jeanne (1997), “The Instability of Fixed Exchange Rate Systems When Raising the Nominal Interest Rate is Costly”, European Economic Review, 41(8): 1461-1478.
  • Blackburn, K. ve M. Sola (1993), “Speculative Currency Attacks and Balance of Payments Crises,” Journal of Economic Surveys, 7(2): 119-144.
  • Blanchard, O. (2004), “Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Brazil,” (No. w10389). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Burki, S. J. ve S. Edwards (1995), “Latin America After Mexico: Quickening the Pace,” World Bank Latin American and Caribbean Studies; Viewpoints Washington, D.C. World Bank Group.
  • Calvo, G. A. ve C. M. Reinhart (2002), “Fear of floating,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(2): 379-408.
  • Calvo, G. A., L. Leiderman, ve C. M. Reinhart (1993), “Capital Flows and the Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors,” FMI, Staff Papers, 40(1): 108-151.
  • Calvo, G. A. ve C.M. Reinhart (1996), “Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?” G.A. Calvo, M.Goldstein, ve E. Hochreitter, eds. içinde, Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets, (Washington DC: Institute for International Economics.).
  • Calvo, G. A. (1996), “Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Management: Tequila Lessons,” University of Maryland. Unpublished manuscript.
  • Calvo, G.A. (1998), “Capital Market Contagion and Recession: An Explanation of the Russian Virus,” College Park, Maryland, University of Maryland.
  • Claessens, Stijn (1991), “Balance of Payments Crises in an Optimal Portfolio Model,” European Economic Review, 35: 81-101.
  • De Kock, G. ve Grilli, V. (1993), “Fiscal Policies and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime,” Economic Journal 103: 347-356.
  • Dooley, M. P., D. Folkerts-Landau, ve P. Garber (2003), “An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System,” NBER Working Paper No. 9971 September.
  • Drazen, A. ve P. R. Masson (1994), “Credibility of Policies versus Credibility of Policymakers,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109(3): 735-754.
  • Eichengreen, B., A. K. Rose ve C. Wyplosz (1994), “Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System,” Matthew Canzoneri, Paul Masson ve Vittorio Grilli, eds. içinde, The New Transatlantic Economy, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Eichengreen, B., A. K. Rose ve C. Wyplosz (1995) “Exchange Market Mayhem: The Antecedents and Aftermath of Speculative Attacks,” Economic Policy, 21: 249-312.
  • Eichengreen, B., A. K. Rose ve C. Wyplosz (1996), “Contagious Currency Crises,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 5681.
  • Feldstein, M. (1999), “Self-Help Guide for Emerging Markets,” Foreign Affairs, 78(2): 93-109.
  • Fisunoğlu, H. M. ve D. M. Akyüz, (2018), “Finansal Krizler ve Rezerv Yönetimi,” İktisat ve Toplum, 96: 75-86.
  • Flood, R. ve P.Garber, (1984a), “Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: Some Linear Examples,” Journal of International Economics, 17(1-2): 1-13.
  • Flood, R. ve P. Garber (1984b), “Gold Monetization and Gold Discipline,” Journal of Political Economy 92(1): 90-107.
  • Frankel, J. A. ve S. Schmukler (1998), “Crisis Contagion, and Country Funds,” R. Glick, ed. içinde, Managing Capital Flows and Exchange Rates, Cambridge University Press.
  • Gerlach, S. ve F. Smets (1995), “Contagious Speculative Attacks,” European Journal of Political Economy, 11(1): 45-63.
  • Ghosh, A. R., J. D. Ostry ve M. Chamon (2016), “Two Targets, Two Instruments: Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies in Emerging Market Economies,” Journal of International Money and Finance, 60(February): 172-196.
  • Glick, R. ve A. Rose (1998), Contagion and Trade: Why Are Currency Crises Regional? Berkeley, University of California.
  • Goldberg, L. (1993), “Predicting Exchange Rate Crises: Mexico Revisited,” NBER Working Paper, No. 3320.
  • Goldfajn, I. ve R. Valdés, (1995), “Balance of Payments Crises and Capital Flows: The Role of Liquidity,” unpublished manuscript, MIT.
  • Krugman, P. (1979), “A Model of Balance of Payments Crises.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 11(3): 311-325.
  • Krugman, P. (1996), “Are Currency Crises Self-Fulfilling?” NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 11: 345-407.
  • Kaminsky, G. L ve C. M. Reinhart (2000), “On Crises, Contagion and Confusion,” Journal of International Economics, 51(1): 145-168.
  • Kaminsky, G. L ve C. M. Reinhart (1996), “The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance of Payments Problems,” The American Economic Review, 89(3): 473-500 Meltzer, A. H. (1998), “Asian Problems and the IMF,” Cato Journal, 17(3): 264-274.
  • Meltzer, A. H. (2009), “Reflections on the Financial Crises,” Cato Journal, 29(1): 2009.
  • Meltzer, A. H. ve J. D. Sachs (2000), “Reforming The IMF and The World Bank,” http://www.cursos.vexternado.edu.co/aco2fin/Lectures..., :1-3.
  • Minsky, H. P. (2008), Stabilizing an Unstable Economy, New York, Macmillan.
  • Moreno, R. (1995), “Macroeconomic Behavior During Periods of Speculative Pressure or Realignment: Evidence from Pacific Basin Economies,” Economic Review - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 3: 3-16.
  • Obstfeld, M. (1986), “Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance of Payments Crises,” American Economic Review, 76(1): 72-81.
  • Obstfeld, M. (1991), “Destabilizing Effects of Exchange Rate Escape Clauses,” NBER Working Paper No. 2603.
  • Obstfeld, M. (1995), “International Currency Experience: New Lessons and Lessons Relearned,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1995(1): 119-220.
  • Obstfeld M., J. C. Shambaugh ve A. M. Taylor (2010), “Financial Instability, Reserves, and Central Bank Swap Lines in the Panic of 2008,” National Bureau of Economic Research. Working Paper 14826. http://www.nber.org/papers/w14826
  • Ozkan, G. ve A. Sutherland, (1995), “Policy Measures to Avoid a Currency Crisis,” Economic Journal, 105 (429): 510-519.
  • Sachs, J., A. Tornell ve A. Velasco (1996), “Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995,” NBER Discussion Paper 5576.
  • Valdés, R. O. (1996), “Emerging Markets Contagion: Evidence and Theory,” SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=69093 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.69093
  • Willman A. (1988), “Balance of Payments Crises and Monetary Policy Reactions in a Model with Imperfect Substitutability Between Domestic and Foreign Bonds,” Economic Letters, 26(1): 77-81.

Monetary Policy Implementation for Crises Between 1980-2008 in The World, Financial Risks and Statement on International Reserves

Year 2020, Volume: 9 Issue: 3, 129 - 159, 01.09.2020

Abstract

Between 1980 and 2008, the crises which emerged in the financial market occurred among developed and emerging economy countries and sudden increases in their reserves coincided with these periods, subsequently causing the central banks to see the reserves as a shield against the crises and use them as such.
If a central bank uses the accumulated foreign currency reserve level in order to avoid the exchange rate risks that may arise in the sudden outflows of foreign capital entering the short-term financial market, what should be the optimal level of the reserve in that case? Could the creation of reserves cause other risks? Since every monetary policy implementation has serious effects on the market, how could this situation be avoided? How should macroeconomic balances be maintained, and the monetary policy be guided during these implementations?
Central banks as a result of trying to achieve price and financial stability create reserves in the balance sheets which in turn affects macroeconomic balances. Accordingly, the definition of the central bank's monetary policy implementation should be clarified, therefore, definitions of monetary policy tools, operational targets and monetary policy intermediate targets should be determined.

References

  • Aizenman J., M. Chinn ve H. Ito (2010-2011), “Surfing the Waves of Globalization, Asia and Financial Globalization in the Context of Trilemma,” National Bureau of Economic Research. Working Paper No. 15876 Issued in April 2010.
  • Aizenman, J. (2009), “Hoarding International Reserves versus a Pigovian Tax scheme: Reflections on the Deleveraging Crisis of 2008-9, and a Cost Benefit Analysis,” NBER Working Paper # 15484.
  • Aizenman, J. ve J. Lee (2007), “International Reserves: Precautionary versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence,” Open Economies Review, 18(2): 191-214.
  • Aizenman, J. ve J. Lee (2008), “Financial Versus Monetary Mercantilism -- Long-Run View of Large International Reserves Hoarding,” The World Economy, 31(5): 593-611.
  • Aizenman, J ve Y. Sun (2009), “The Financial Crisis and Sizable International Reserves Depletion: From 'Fear of Floating' to the 'Fear of Losing International Reserves'?” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 15308. http://www.nber.org/papers/w1530
  • Bardhan A. ve D. Jaffee (2007), “The Impact of Global Capital Flows and Foreign Financing on US Mortgage and Treasury Interest Rates,” Special Report, Research Institute for Housing America.
  • Bardhan, P. (2001), “The Impact of Globalization on the Poor,” University of California at Berkeley.
  • Bensaid B. ve O. Jeanne (1997), “The Instability of Fixed Exchange Rate Systems When Raising the Nominal Interest Rate is Costly”, European Economic Review, 41(8): 1461-1478.
  • Blackburn, K. ve M. Sola (1993), “Speculative Currency Attacks and Balance of Payments Crises,” Journal of Economic Surveys, 7(2): 119-144.
  • Blanchard, O. (2004), “Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Brazil,” (No. w10389). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Burki, S. J. ve S. Edwards (1995), “Latin America After Mexico: Quickening the Pace,” World Bank Latin American and Caribbean Studies; Viewpoints Washington, D.C. World Bank Group.
  • Calvo, G. A. ve C. M. Reinhart (2002), “Fear of floating,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(2): 379-408.
  • Calvo, G. A., L. Leiderman, ve C. M. Reinhart (1993), “Capital Flows and the Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors,” FMI, Staff Papers, 40(1): 108-151.
  • Calvo, G. A. ve C.M. Reinhart (1996), “Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?” G.A. Calvo, M.Goldstein, ve E. Hochreitter, eds. içinde, Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets, (Washington DC: Institute for International Economics.).
  • Calvo, G. A. (1996), “Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Management: Tequila Lessons,” University of Maryland. Unpublished manuscript.
  • Calvo, G.A. (1998), “Capital Market Contagion and Recession: An Explanation of the Russian Virus,” College Park, Maryland, University of Maryland.
  • Claessens, Stijn (1991), “Balance of Payments Crises in an Optimal Portfolio Model,” European Economic Review, 35: 81-101.
  • De Kock, G. ve Grilli, V. (1993), “Fiscal Policies and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime,” Economic Journal 103: 347-356.
  • Dooley, M. P., D. Folkerts-Landau, ve P. Garber (2003), “An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System,” NBER Working Paper No. 9971 September.
  • Drazen, A. ve P. R. Masson (1994), “Credibility of Policies versus Credibility of Policymakers,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109(3): 735-754.
  • Eichengreen, B., A. K. Rose ve C. Wyplosz (1994), “Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System,” Matthew Canzoneri, Paul Masson ve Vittorio Grilli, eds. içinde, The New Transatlantic Economy, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Eichengreen, B., A. K. Rose ve C. Wyplosz (1995) “Exchange Market Mayhem: The Antecedents and Aftermath of Speculative Attacks,” Economic Policy, 21: 249-312.
  • Eichengreen, B., A. K. Rose ve C. Wyplosz (1996), “Contagious Currency Crises,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 5681.
  • Feldstein, M. (1999), “Self-Help Guide for Emerging Markets,” Foreign Affairs, 78(2): 93-109.
  • Fisunoğlu, H. M. ve D. M. Akyüz, (2018), “Finansal Krizler ve Rezerv Yönetimi,” İktisat ve Toplum, 96: 75-86.
  • Flood, R. ve P.Garber, (1984a), “Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: Some Linear Examples,” Journal of International Economics, 17(1-2): 1-13.
  • Flood, R. ve P. Garber (1984b), “Gold Monetization and Gold Discipline,” Journal of Political Economy 92(1): 90-107.
  • Frankel, J. A. ve S. Schmukler (1998), “Crisis Contagion, and Country Funds,” R. Glick, ed. içinde, Managing Capital Flows and Exchange Rates, Cambridge University Press.
  • Gerlach, S. ve F. Smets (1995), “Contagious Speculative Attacks,” European Journal of Political Economy, 11(1): 45-63.
  • Ghosh, A. R., J. D. Ostry ve M. Chamon (2016), “Two Targets, Two Instruments: Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies in Emerging Market Economies,” Journal of International Money and Finance, 60(February): 172-196.
  • Glick, R. ve A. Rose (1998), Contagion and Trade: Why Are Currency Crises Regional? Berkeley, University of California.
  • Goldberg, L. (1993), “Predicting Exchange Rate Crises: Mexico Revisited,” NBER Working Paper, No. 3320.
  • Goldfajn, I. ve R. Valdés, (1995), “Balance of Payments Crises and Capital Flows: The Role of Liquidity,” unpublished manuscript, MIT.
  • Krugman, P. (1979), “A Model of Balance of Payments Crises.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 11(3): 311-325.
  • Krugman, P. (1996), “Are Currency Crises Self-Fulfilling?” NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 11: 345-407.
  • Kaminsky, G. L ve C. M. Reinhart (2000), “On Crises, Contagion and Confusion,” Journal of International Economics, 51(1): 145-168.
  • Kaminsky, G. L ve C. M. Reinhart (1996), “The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance of Payments Problems,” The American Economic Review, 89(3): 473-500 Meltzer, A. H. (1998), “Asian Problems and the IMF,” Cato Journal, 17(3): 264-274.
  • Meltzer, A. H. (2009), “Reflections on the Financial Crises,” Cato Journal, 29(1): 2009.
  • Meltzer, A. H. ve J. D. Sachs (2000), “Reforming The IMF and The World Bank,” http://www.cursos.vexternado.edu.co/aco2fin/Lectures..., :1-3.
  • Minsky, H. P. (2008), Stabilizing an Unstable Economy, New York, Macmillan.
  • Moreno, R. (1995), “Macroeconomic Behavior During Periods of Speculative Pressure or Realignment: Evidence from Pacific Basin Economies,” Economic Review - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 3: 3-16.
  • Obstfeld, M. (1986), “Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance of Payments Crises,” American Economic Review, 76(1): 72-81.
  • Obstfeld, M. (1991), “Destabilizing Effects of Exchange Rate Escape Clauses,” NBER Working Paper No. 2603.
  • Obstfeld, M. (1995), “International Currency Experience: New Lessons and Lessons Relearned,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1995(1): 119-220.
  • Obstfeld M., J. C. Shambaugh ve A. M. Taylor (2010), “Financial Instability, Reserves, and Central Bank Swap Lines in the Panic of 2008,” National Bureau of Economic Research. Working Paper 14826. http://www.nber.org/papers/w14826
  • Ozkan, G. ve A. Sutherland, (1995), “Policy Measures to Avoid a Currency Crisis,” Economic Journal, 105 (429): 510-519.
  • Sachs, J., A. Tornell ve A. Velasco (1996), “Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995,” NBER Discussion Paper 5576.
  • Valdés, R. O. (1996), “Emerging Markets Contagion: Evidence and Theory,” SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=69093 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.69093
  • Willman A. (1988), “Balance of Payments Crises and Monetary Policy Reactions in a Model with Imperfect Substitutability Between Domestic and Foreign Bonds,” Economic Letters, 26(1): 77-81.
There are 49 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Metin D. Akyüz This is me

Hüseyin Mahir Fisunoğlu

Publication Date September 1, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 9 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Akyüz, M. D., & Fisunoğlu, H. M. (2020). Dünyada Yaşanan 1980- 2008 Yılı Krizlerinde Para Politikası Uygulaması, Finansal Riskler ve Uluslararası Rezervlerin Durumu. Ekonomi-Tek, 9(3), 129-159.