Pearl’in Nedensel Modelinin Ampirik Araştırmadaki Rolü

Year 2024, Volume: 13 Issue: 2, 230 - 252, 11.09.2024

Fırat Bilgel

Abstract

Bu çalışma, korelasyonları tespit etmek yerine neden-sonuç ilişkilerini açıklığa kavuşturan kesin araştırma soruları formüle etmenin gerekliliğini vurgulamakta ve karmaşık nedensel sorularla baş etmede, nedensel grafikler veya yapısal nedensel modeller olmadan sadece regresyon analizi kullanmanın tehlikelerine dikkat çekmektedir. Judea Pearl'ün nedensel epistemolojisinde kullanılan, nedensel grafikler, yapısal nedensel modeller ve do-kalkülüs gibi araçları nedensel etkileri tahmin etmek için tanıtır. Çalışma aynı zamanda karıştırıcı ve çarpışma etkileriyle ilgili zorluklara, Hukuk ve Ekonomi’den basit örneklerle, do-kalkülüs uygulamalarına ve tahdit temelli algoritmalar aracılığıyla nedensel keşif yöntemlerindeki gelişmelere değinmektedir. Makale ayrıca etki tanımlama ve tahmin konusunda en iyi uygulamalar hakkında kısa bir yol haritası sunar.

Keywords

Pearl'ün Nedensel Epistemolojisi, Nedensel Keşif, Etki tanımlama

The Role of Pearl’s Causal Framework in Empirical Research

Abstract

This paper underscores the necessity of formulating precise research questions that clarify causal relationships rather than simply identifying correlations and highlights the perils of relying solely on regression analysis in tackling complex causal inquiries without causal diagrams or structural causal models. It introduces Judea Pearl's causal epistemology, including causal graphs, structural causal models, and do-calculus as vital tools for estimating causal effects. It extends to the challenges of confounding and collider effects, the application of do-calculus with basic examples from Law & Economics and the advancements in causal discovery methods through constraint-based algorithms. The paper also offers a brief roadmap on best practices for identification and estimation.

Keywords

Pearl's Causal Epistemology, Causal Discovery, Identification

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