MEVDUAT DOLARİZASYONUNUN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: KANTİL REGRESYON YAKLAŞIMI (2012-2024)

Serap Dursun; Buse Topaloğlu

doi:10.46737/emid.1838500

TR EN

MEVDUAT DOLARİZASYONUNUN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: KANTİL REGRESYON YAKLAŞIMI (2012-2024)

Abstract

Dolarizasyon, ulusal paranın temel işlevlerini tam veya kısmen yerine getirememesi sonucunda ekonomik aktörlerin yabancı para birimlerini tercih etmeleri şeklinde tanımlanmaktadır. Uzun yıllardır yüksek dolarizasyon eğilimi gösteren Türkiye’de mevduat dolarizasyonunun belirleyicilerinin incelendiği bu çalışmada 2012–2024 dönemine ait aylık veriler kullanılmıştır. Finansal dolarizasyon göstergesi olarak Döviz Tevdiat Hesaplarının (DTH) Toplam Mevduatlar (TM) içindeki payı esas alınarak hesaplanan mevduat dolarizasyonu (DOLM) kullanılmıştır. Mevduat dolarizasyonunun belirleyicileri olarak enflasyon, ekonomik beklentiler, para politikası, işgücü piyasası ve döviz piyasası koşullarını temsil eden Tüketici Fiyat Endeksi (TÜFE), Tüketici Güven Endeksi (TGE), Merkez Bankası Ağırlıklı Ortalama Fonlama Maliyeti (MFF), İşsizlik Oranı (İŞZ) ve Sepet Kur Oynaklığı (LNSEPET) değişkenleri analize dahil edilmiştir. DOLM ile bu değişkenler arasındaki ilişki Kantil Regresyon Analizi ile incelenmiş, katsayıların kantiller arasında farklılaşıp farklılaşmadığı Quantile Slope Equality Test ile test edilmiştir. Bulgular, işsizlik oranı ve kur oynaklığının mevduat dolarizasyonunu artırdığını; tüketici güveni ve ağırlıklı ortalama fonlama maliyetinin ise azalttığını, enflasyonun ise genel olarak pozitif etkide bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca değişken etkilerinin dolarizasyon düzeylerine göre heterojenlik gösterdiği belirlenmiş olup, sonuçlar mevduat dolarizasyonunun yalnızca fiyat istikrarıyla değil, beklenti kanalı ve para politikası uygulamalarıyla da yakından ilişkili olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır

Keywords

Dolarizasyon, Tüketici Güven Endeksi, CDS, İşsizlik Oranı

Dollarization

Abstract

Dollarization refers to the preference of economic agents for foreign currencies when the domestic currency fails to fully or partially perform its fundamental functions. This study examines the determinants of deposit dollarization in Türkiye using monthly data for the period 2012–2024. Deposit dollarization (DOLM), measured as the ratio of Foreign Currency Deposit Accounts (FCDA) to Total Deposits (TD), is analyzed using the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), Central Bank Weighted Average Funding Cost (WAFC), Unemployment Rate (UR), and Basket Exchange Rate Volatility (LNBASKET) as explanatory variables. Quantile Regression Analysis is employed, and coefficient heterogeneity across quantiles is examined using the Quantile Slope Equality Test. The findings indicate that unemployment and exchange rate volatility increase deposit dollarization, whereas consumer confidence and the weighted average funding cost reduce it, while inflation generally has a positive effect. Moreover, the effects of the explanatory variables vary across dollarization levels, suggesting that deposit dollarization is shaped not only by price stability but also by expectations and monetary policy. The results support the existing literature.

Keywords

Dollarization, Consumer Confidence Index, CDS, Unemployment Rate

References

Akçay, O. C., Alper, C. E., & Özatay, F. (2008). “Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Turkey”. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 44(6): 38–51.
Akkaya, M. (2023). “Türkiye Ekonomisinin Kronik Sorunu Dolarizasyon”. Tesam Akademi Dergisi, 10(2): 613–637.
Bannister, G., Gardberg, M., & Turunen, J. (2018). Dollarization and Financial Development (IMF Working Paper No. WP/18/200). Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
Belaisch, A. A., Collyns, C., De Masi, P., Meredith, G. M., Singh, A., Krieger, R., & Rennhack, R. (2005). Stabilization and Reform in Latin America: A Macroeconomic Perspective of the Experience since the 1990s. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
Buchinsky, M. (1998). “Recent Advances in Quantile Regression Models: A Practical Guideline for Empirical Research”. Journal of Human Resources, 33(1): 88–126.
Calvo, G. A., & Végh, C. A. (1992). Currency Substitution in Developing Countries: An Introduction (IMF Working Paper No. WP/92/40). Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
Chang, R., & Velasco, A. (2005). “Endogenous Financial Dollarization and Exchange Rate Policy”. Journal of Policy Reform, 8(4): 263–280.
Corrales, J.-S., & Imam, P. A. (2021). “Financial Dollarization of Households and Firms: How Does It Differ by Level of Economic Development?”. Review of International Economics, 29: 927–978.
Court, E., Özsöz, E., & Rengifo, E. W. (2012). “The Impact of Deposit Dollarization on Financial Deepening”. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 48(6): 39–52.
Çağlayan, M., Pham, T., & Talavera, O. (2021). “Dollarization, Pass-Through, and Domestic Lending: Evidence from Turkish Banking”. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 57(11): 3190–3201.

De Nicolo, G., Honohan, P., & Ize, A. (2005). “Dollarization of the Banking System: Good or Bad? Journal of Banking & Finance”, 29(7): 1697–1727.
Demir, F., & Sezgin, A. (2023). “The Effect of Inflation on Currency Substitution (Dollarization) An Analysis: On Türkiye NUTS2 Regions”. Politik Ekonomik Kuram, 7(Özel Sayı): 121-137.
Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366): 427–431.
Drenik, A. & Perez, D. J. (2021). “Domestic Price Dollarization in Emerging Economies”. Journal of Monetary Economics”, 122: 38–55.
Ferrante, F., & Gornemann, N. (2022). Devaluations, Deposit Dollarization, and Household Heterogeneity (International Finance Discussion Paper No. 1336). Washington, DC: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
García, M., & Restrepo, J. P. (2025). “Dollarization and the International Bank Lending Channel: Evidence from Latin America”. Journal of International Money and Finance, 139: 102982.
Gençay, O. (2007). Finansal Dolarizasyon ve Finansal İstikrar Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Değerlendirmesi (Uzmanlık yeterlilik tezi). Ankara: Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası.
Ghosh, A. R., Ostry, J. D., & Qureshi, M. S. (2015). “Exchange Rate Management and Crisis Susceptibility”. Journal of International Money and Finance, 52: 1–20.
Gil, H. G. (2025). “Dollarization Hysteresis, Inflation Jumps, and Fear of Inflation”. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 167:105986.
Granger, C. W., & Newbold, P. (1974). “Spurious Regressions in Econometrics”. Journal of Econometrics, 2(2): 111–120.
Gujarati, D. (2015). “Econometrics by Example” (2nd ed.). London: Palgrave Macmillan.
Hay, C. (2021). “Real Dollarization in Phnom Penh: Evidence from Two Surveys”. Japan and the World Economy, 60: 1–16.
Honig, A. (2009). “Dollarization, Exchange Rate Regimes and Government Quality”. Journal of International Money and Finance, 28: 198–214.
Ize, A. (2013). Financial Dollarization. In G. Caprio Jr. (Ed.), The Evidence and Impact of Financial Globalization (pp. 463–481). Amsterdam: Elsevier.
Ize, A., & Levy-Yeyati, E. (2003). “Financial Dollarization”. Journal of International Economics, 59(2): 323–347.
Ize, A., & Levy-Yeyati, E. (2006). “Financial de-Dollarization: Is it for Real?” In A. Armas, A. Ize, & E. Levy-Yeyati (Eds.), Financial Dollarization: The policy agenda (pp. 38–60). New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Kaya, E., & Açdoyuran, B. (2017). “Finansal Dolarizasyon Unsurları Olarak Kredi Dolarizasyonu ve Mevduat Dolarizasyonu İle Hisse Senedi Getirileri Arasındaki İlişki”. Dicle Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 7(14): 325–344.
Khabibullin, R., & Ponomarenko, A. (2022). “An Empirical Behavioral Model of Households’ Deposit Dollarization”. Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, 17(3): 827–847.
Koenker, R. (2005). Quantile Regression. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Koenker, R., & Bassett, G. (1978). “Regression Quantiles”. Econometrica, 46(1): 33–50.
Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P., & Shin, Y. (1992). “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root”. Journal of Econometrics, 54: 159–178.
Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2003). “Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks”. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4): 1082–1089.
Levy-Yeyati, E. (2021). Financial Dollarization and de-Dollarization in the New Millennium (Working Paper No. wp_gob_2021_02). Buenos Aires: Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
Levy-Yeyati, E., & Sturzenegger, F. (2003). Dollarization: A Primer. In E. Levy-Yeyati & F. Sturzenegger (Eds.), Dollarization (pp. 1–51). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Marcelin, I., & Mathur, I. (2016). “Financial Sector Development and Dollarization in Emerging Economies”. International Review of Financial Analysis, 46: 20–32.
Neanidis, K. C., & Savva, C. S. (2009). “Financial Dollarization: Short-Run Determinants in Transition Economies”. Journal of Banking & Finance, 33: 1860–1873.
Notz, S., & Rosenkranz, P. (2021). “Business Cycles in Emerging Markets: The Role of Liability Dollarization and Valuation Effects”. International Review of Economics and Finance, 76: 424–450.
Öz, S. (2021). Mevduat Dolarizasyonu: Sebepleri ve Sonuçları, Ekonomik Araştırma Forumu Araştırma Notu 21, (02.07.2021)
Ozgur, O. (2024). “Financial Dollarization and Its Effects on Inflation and Output in Turkey: A Machine Learning Approach”. Quality & Quantity, 58(6): 5777–5804.
Park, H., & Son, J. C. (2021). “The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Instruments under Dollarization: A Cross-Country Analysis”. Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, 30(4): 1029 – 1046.
Park, H., & Son, J. C. (2022). “Dollarization, Inflation and Foreign Exchange Markets: A Cross-Country Analysis”. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 27: 2724–2736.
Ponomarenko, A., Solovyeva, A., & Vasilieva, E. (2013). “Financial Dollarization in Russia: Causes and Consequences”. Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, 6(2): 221–243.
Reinhart, C. M., Rogoff, K. S., & Savastano, M. A. (2003). Addicted to dollars. NBER Working, Paper, No. 10015.
Rennhack, R., & Nozaki, M. (2006). “Financial Dollarization in Latin America. In A. Armas” A. Ize, & E. Levy-Yeyati (Eds.). Financial Dollarization: The Policy Agenda (pp. 64–89). New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Saamoi, S. (2011). Dollarization: A Literature Review of Developing Countries (Master’s thesis). The Hague: International Institute of Social Studies.
Sarıgül, H. (2023). “The Impacts of Dollarization on the Profitability of Turkish State-Owned Deposit Banks”. Sosyoekonomi, 31(57): 255–282.
Schlitzer, Giuseppe, 1995. "Testing The Stationarity of Economic Time Series: Further Monte Carlo Evidence", Ricerche Economiche, 49(2): 125-144
Tarı, R. (2012). Ekonometri. Kocaeli: Umuttepe Yayınları.
Thaariq, R. M., & Wahyuni, H. (2019). “Financial Dollarisation Hysteresis: The Case of Indonesia”. Economic Papers, 38(4): 286–298.
Urošević, B., & Rajković, I. (2016). “Dollarization of Deposits in the Short and Long Run: Evidence from CESE Countries (CESifo Working Paper No. 5745)”. Munich: CESifo.
Vargas, M., & Sanchez, J. (2023). Taming Financial Dollarization: Determinants and Effective Policies – The Case of Uruguay (IMF Working Paper No. 23/244). International Monetary
Vidal, J. A., Hoyle, D. F., Vargas, K. L., & Vásquez, V. M. (2021). “Policies for Transactional De-Dollarization: A Laboratory Study”. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 200: 31–54.
Vieira, F. A. C., Holland, M., & Resende, M. F. (2012). “Financial Dollarization and Systemic Risks: New Empirical Evidence”. Journal of International Money and Finance, 31: 1695–1714.
Wooldridge, J. M. (2013). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (5th ed.). South-Western Cengage Learning.
Yalta, A. Y., & Yalta, A. T. (2024). “Dynamics of Deposit Dollarization in Turkey”. Journal of Economic Analysis, 3(2): 52-64.
Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. W. K. (1992). “Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis”. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3): 251–270.

Details

Primary Language

Turkish

Subjects

Macroeconomic Theory

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Serap Dursun
0000-0001-8683-0854
Türkiye

Buse Topaloğlu ^*
0000-0002-9167-155X
Türkiye

Publication Date

June 30, 2026

Submission Date

December 9, 2025

Acceptance Date

June 4, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 9 Number: 1

DOI

https://doi.org/10.46737/emid.1838500

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA87WP77RX

APA

Dursun, S., & Topaloğlu, B. (2026). MEVDUAT DOLARİZASYONUNUN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: KANTİL REGRESYON YAKLAŞIMI (2012-2024). Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi, 9(1), 51-69. https://doi.org/10.46737/emid.1838500

AMA

1.Dursun S, Topaloğlu B. MEVDUAT DOLARİZASYONUNUN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: KANTİL REGRESYON YAKLAŞIMI (2012-2024). Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi. 2026;9(1):51-69. doi:10.46737/emid.1838500

Chicago

Dursun, Serap, and Buse Topaloğlu. 2026. “MEVDUAT DOLARİZASYONUNUN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: KANTİL REGRESYON YAKLAŞIMI (2012-2024)”. Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi 9 (1): 51-69. https://doi.org/10.46737/emid.1838500.

EndNote

Dursun S, Topaloğlu B (June 1, 2026) MEVDUAT DOLARİZASYONUNUN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: KANTİL REGRESYON YAKLAŞIMI (2012-2024). Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi 9 1 51–69.

IEEE

[1]S. Dursun and B. Topaloğlu, “MEVDUAT DOLARİZASYONUNUN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: KANTİL REGRESYON YAKLAŞIMI (2012-2024)”, Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 51–69, June 2026, doi: 10.46737/emid.1838500.

ISNAD

Dursun, Serap - Topaloğlu, Buse. “MEVDUAT DOLARİZASYONUNUN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: KANTİL REGRESYON YAKLAŞIMI (2012-2024)”. Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi 9/1 (June 1, 2026): 51-69. https://doi.org/10.46737/emid.1838500.

JAMA

1.Dursun S, Topaloğlu B. MEVDUAT DOLARİZASYONUNUN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: KANTİL REGRESYON YAKLAŞIMI (2012-2024). Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi. 2026;9:51–69.

MLA

Dursun, Serap, and Buse Topaloğlu. “MEVDUAT DOLARİZASYONUNUN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: KANTİL REGRESYON YAKLAŞIMI (2012-2024)”. Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi, vol. 9, no. 1, June 2026, pp. 51-69, doi:10.46737/emid.1838500.

Vancouver

1.Serap Dursun, Buse Topaloğlu. MEVDUAT DOLARİZASYONUNUN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: KANTİL REGRESYON YAKLAŞIMI (2012-2024). Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi. 2026 Jun. 1;9(1):51-69. doi:10.46737/emid.1838500

MEVDUAT DOLARİZASYONUNUN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: KANTİL REGRESYON YAKLAŞIMI (2012-2024)

Abstract

Keywords

Dollarization

Abstract

Keywords

References

Details

Primary Language

Subjects

Journal Section

Authors

Publication Date

Submission Date

Acceptance Date

Published in Issue

DOI

IZ

Cite