U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS AND REAL PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT IN TÜRKİYE: TIME-VARYING ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY

Mehmet Aslan; Ayşe Nur Şahinler

doi:10.46737/emid.2015504

EN TR

U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS AND REAL PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT IN TÜRKİYE: TIME-VARYING ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine whether the direction of the causal relationship between U.S. 10-year Treasury yields and real loans extended by commercial banks in Turkey to the private sector varies depending on the type of shock and over time. The analysis was conducted using monthly data from January 2003 to March 2026, employing the Hatemi-J (2012) static asymmetric causality test and the Hatemi-J (2022) time-varying asymmetric causality method. The static results indicate that there is no causality among positive shocks, whereas there is bidirectional causality among negative shocks. The time-varying results reveal that causality from U.S. interest rates to real loans in Turkey became evident particularly during the 2008–2012 period for negative shocks, and in sub-periods following November 2021 for positive shocks. While no causality was detected from real loans in Turkey to U.S. interest rates during positive shocks, a relationship was found during negative shocks only in specific sub-periods. The findings indicate that the forecasting relationship between the two variables is neither constant nor symmetric across the sample but varies depending on the direction of the shock and the sub-period. This result underscores the importance of evaluating movements in U.S. long-term interest rates in conjunction with global and domestic financial conditions from the perspective of financial stability.

Keywords

Global financial cycle, United States long-term interest rates, real private sector credit, asymmetric causality, time-varying causality

ABD 10 YILLIK TAHVİL FAİZLERİ VE TÜRKİYE’DE REEL ÖZEL SEKTÖR KREDİLERİ: ZAMANLA DEĞİŞEN ASİMETRİK NEDENSELLİK

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri on yıllık Hazine tahvili faizleri ile Türkiye’de mevduat bankalarının özel sektöre kullandırdığı reel krediler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin şok yönüne ve zamana göre değişip değişmediğini incelemektir. Analiz, 2003 Ocak–2026 Mart dönemine ait aylık veriler kullanılarak Hatemi-J (2012) statik asimetrik nedensellik testi ve Hatemi-J (2022) zamanla değişen asimetrik nedensellik yöntemiyle yürütülmüştür. Statik sonuçlar, pozitif şoklar arasında nedensellik bulunmadığını, negatif şoklarda ise iki yönlü nedensellik olduğunu göstermektedir. Zamanla değişen sonuçlar, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri faizlerinden Türkiye’deki reel kredilere doğru nedenselliğin özellikle 2008–2012 döneminde negatif şoklarda, Kasım 2021 sonrasındaki alt dönemlerde ise pozitif şoklarda belirginleştiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Türkiye’deki reel kredilerden Amerika Birleşik Devletleri faizlerine doğru pozitif şoklarda nedensellik saptanmazken, negatif şoklarda yalnızca belirli alt dönemlerde ilişki bulunmuştur. Bulgular, iki değişken arasındaki öngörü ilişkisinin örneklem boyunca sabit ve simetrik olmadığını, şok yönüne ve alt döneme göre değiştiğini göstermektedir. Bu sonuç, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri uzun vadeli faiz hareketlerinin finansal istikrar açısından gerçekleştiği küresel ve yurt içi finansal koşullarla birlikte değerlendirilmesinin önemine işaret etmektedir.

Keywords

Küresel Finansal Döngü, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri Uzun Vadeli Faizleri, Reel Özel Sektör Kredileri, Asimetrik Nedensellik, Zamanla Değişen Nedensellik

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Monetary-Banking

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Mehmet Aslan ^*
0000-0002-7455-5354
Türkiye

Ayşe Nur Şahinler
0000-0001-8724-8444
Türkiye

Publication Date

October 29, 2026

Submission Date

August 11, 2026

Acceptance Date

September 15, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 9 Number: Prof. Dr. İlker Parasız Özel Sayısı

DOI

https://doi.org/10.46737/emid.2015504

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA59WG92XG

APA

Aslan, M., & Şahinler, A. N. (2026). U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS AND REAL PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT IN TÜRKİYE: TIME-VARYING ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY. Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi, 9(Prof. Dr. İlker Parasız Özel Sayısı), 214-240. https://doi.org/10.46737/emid.2015504

AMA

1.Aslan M, Şahinler AN. U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS AND REAL PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT IN TÜRKİYE: TIME-VARYING ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY. Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi. 2026;9(Prof. Dr. İlker Parasız Özel Sayısı):214-240. doi:10.46737/emid.2015504

Chicago

Aslan, Mehmet, and Ayşe Nur Şahinler. 2026. “U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS AND REAL PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT IN TÜRKİYE: TIME-VARYING ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY”. Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi 9 (Prof. Dr. İlker Parasız Özel Sayısı): 214-40. https://doi.org/10.46737/emid.2015504.

EndNote

Aslan M, Şahinler AN (October 1, 2026) U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS AND REAL PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT IN TÜRKİYE: TIME-VARYING ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY. Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi 9 Prof. Dr. İlker Parasız Özel Sayısı 214–240.

IEEE

[1]M. Aslan and A. N. Şahinler, “U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS AND REAL PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT IN TÜRKİYE: TIME-VARYING ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY”, Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi, vol. 9, no. Prof. Dr. İlker Parasız Özel Sayısı, pp. 214–240, Oct. 2026, doi: 10.46737/emid.2015504.

ISNAD

Aslan, Mehmet - Şahinler, Ayşe Nur. “U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS AND REAL PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT IN TÜRKİYE: TIME-VARYING ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY”. Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi 9/Prof. Dr. İlker Parasız Özel Sayısı (October 1, 2026): 214-240. https://doi.org/10.46737/emid.2015504.

JAMA

1.Aslan M, Şahinler AN. U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS AND REAL PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT IN TÜRKİYE: TIME-VARYING ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY. Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi. 2026;9:214–240.

MLA

Aslan, Mehmet, and Ayşe Nur Şahinler. “U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS AND REAL PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT IN TÜRKİYE: TIME-VARYING ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY”. Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi, vol. 9, no. Prof. Dr. İlker Parasız Özel Sayısı, Oct. 2026, pp. 214-40, doi:10.46737/emid.2015504.

Vancouver

1.Mehmet Aslan, Ayşe Nur Şahinler. U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS AND REAL PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT IN TÜRKİYE: TIME-VARYING ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY. Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi. 2026 Oct. 1;9(Prof. Dr. İlker Parasız Özel Sayısı):214-40. doi:10.46737/emid.2015504

U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS AND REAL PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT IN TÜRKİYE: TIME-VARYING ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY

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ABD 10 YILLIK TAHVİL FAİZLERİ VE TÜRKİYE’DE REEL ÖZEL SEKTÖR KREDİLERİ: ZAMANLA DEĞİŞEN ASİMETRİK NEDENSELLİK

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