Estimating Global Solar Radiation from Empirical Models: An Application

Abstract

Solar radiation data are required for many applications and many areas of research. In order to achieve this, several empirical models have been suggested to predict the global solar radiation in Turkey and other countries. The different meteorological data as the global solar radiation, the sunshine duration, the temperature, the atmospheric pressure, the wind speed and the relative humidity were measured by Eskisehir Osmangazi University during the period between 01 January 2011 and 31 December 2014. These data were used to develop the empirical models in order to estimate the monthly average daily global solar radiation on the horizontal surface over Eskisehir City of Turkey. The developed empirical models were analyzed with the widely used nine statistical methods, namely; the relative percentage error (E), the mean percentage error (MPE), the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), the sum of squares of relative errors (SSRE), the relative standard error (RSE), the mean bias error (MBE), the root mean square error (RMSE), the t-statistic method (t-stat) and coefficient of determination (R2). It is expected that the new model will be beneficial to everyone who is the solar engineers, architects, agriculturists, and hydrologists involved or interested in the design and study of solar energy applications such as solar furnaces, wood drying, stoves, concentrating collectors, interior illumination and thermal load analyzing of buildings, and photovoltaics, agricultural and meteorological forecasting.

Keywords

• Global solar radiation
• empirical models
• statistical analysis
• Eskisehir city

References

1. Teke, A., Yıldırım, H.B., Celik, O., (2015). Evaluation and performance comparison of different models for the estimation of solar radiation. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 50:1097–1107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.05.049
2. Behar, O., Khellaf, A., Mohammedi, K., (2015). Comparison of solar radiation models and their validation under Algerian climate-The case of direct irradiance. Energy Conversion and Management. 98:236–251. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2015.03.067
3. Gueymard, C.A., (2014). A review of validation methodologies and statistical performance indicators for modeled solar radiation data: Towards a better bankability of solar projects. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 39:1024-34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.07.117
4. Gueymard, C.A., (2009). Direct and indirect uncertainties in the prediction of tilted irradiance for solar engineering applications. Solar Energy. 83:432-444. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2008.11.004
5. Ulgen, K., Hepbasli, A., (2009). Diffuse solar radiation estimation models for Turkey’s big cities. Energy Conversion and Management. 50: 149-156. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2008.08.013
6. Khorasanizadeh, H., Mohammadi, K., (2013). Introducing the best model for predicting the monthly mean global solar radiation over six major cities of Iran. Energy. 51:257-266. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2012.11.007
7. Yaiche, M.R., Bouhanik, A., Bekkouche, S.M.A., Malek, A., Benouaz, T., (2014). Revised solar maps of Algeria based on sunshine duration. Energy Conversion Management. 82:114-123. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2014.02.063
8. Robaa, S.M., (2009). Validation of the existing models for estimating global solar radiation over Egypt. Energy Conversion and Management. 50:184-193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2008.07.005

9. Manzano, A., Martin, M.L., Valeroa, F., Armenta, C., (2015). A single method to estimate the daily global solar radiation from monthly data. Atmospheric Research. 166:70-82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.06.017
10. Yao, W., Li, Z., Xiu, T., Lu, Y., Li, X., (2015). New decomposition models to estimate hourly global solar radiation from the daily value. Solar Energy. 120: 87-99. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2015.05.038
11. Mesri, M., (2015). Numerical methods to calculate solar radiation, validation through a new Graphic User Interface design. Energy Conversion and Management. 90: 436-445. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2014.11.037
12. Mohammadi, K., Shamshirband, S., Tong, C.W., Alam, K.A., Petkovic, D., (2015). Potential of adaptive neuro-fuzzy system for prediction of daily global solar radiation by day of the year. Energy Conversion and Management. 93: 406-413. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2015.01.021
13. Linares-Rodríguez, A., Ruiz-Arias, J.A., Pozo-Vázquez, D., Tovar-Pescador, J., (2011). Generation of synthetic daily global solar radiation data based on ERA-Interim reanalysis and artificial neural networks. Energy. 36: 5356-5365. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2011.06.044
14. Benghanem, M., Mellit, A., Alamri, S.N., (2009). ANN-based modelling and estimation of daily global solar radiation data: A case study. Energy Conversion and Management. 50: 1644-1655. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2009.03.035
15. Sahin, M., Kaya, Y., Uyar, M., (2013). Comparison of ANN and MLR models for estimating solar radiation in Turkey using NOAA/AVHRR data. Advances in Space Research. 5:891-904. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2012.10.010
16. Koca, A., Oztop, H.F., Varol, Y., Koca, G.O., (2011). Estimation of solar radiation using artificial neural networks with different input parameters for Mediterranean region of Anatolia in Turkey. Expert Systems with Applications. 38: 8756-8762. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2011.01.085
17. Qazi, A., Fayaz, H., Wadi, A., Raj, R.G., Rahim, N.A., Khan, W.A., (2015). The artificial neural network for solar radiation prediction and designing solar systems: a systematic literature review. Journal of Cleaner Production. 104:1-12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.04.041
18. Park, J.K., Das , A., Park, J.H., (2015). A new approach to estimate the spatial distribution of solar radiation using topographic factor and sunshine duration in South Korea. Energy Conversion and Management. 101: 30-39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2015.04.021
19. Hassan, G.E., Youssef, M.E., Mohamed, Z.E., Ali, M.A., Hanafy, A.A., (2016). New temperature-based models for predicting global solar radiation. Applied Energy. 179: 437-450. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.07.006
20. Yıldızay, H.D., (2015). Eskişehir ve yöresinde enerji üretimi amaçlı güneş ışınımı ve rüzgar hızı değerlerinin tespiti ve kullanılabilirliğini analizi. Determination of solar radiation and wind speed values for energy generation and availability analysis in Eskisehir region. Doctoral Thesis. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi.
21. Zang, H., Cheng, L., Ding, T., Cheung, K.W., Wang, M., Wei, Z., Sun, G., (2019). Estimation and validation of daily global solar radiation by day of the year-based models for different climates in China. Renewable Energy. 135: 984-1003. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2018.12.065
22. Jamil, B., Siddiqui, A.T., (2017). Generalized models for estimating of diffuse solar radiation based on clearness index and sunshine duration in India: Applicability under different climatic zones. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics. 157-158:16-34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2017.03.013
23. Behar, O., Khellaf, A., Mohammedi, K., (2015). Comparison of solar radiation models and their validation under Algerian climate- The case of direct irradiance. Energy Conversion and Management. 98: 236–251. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2015.03.067
24. Duffie, J.A., Beckman, W.A., (2006). Solar engineering of thermal processes. 3rd ed. New York: John Wiley & Son.
25. Angstrom, A., (1924). Solar and Terrestrial Radiation Report to the International Commission for Solar Research on Actinometric Investigations of Solar and Atmospheric Radiation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.,50: 121–126.
26. Prescott, J.A., (1940). Evaporation from water surface in relation to solar radiation. Trans Roy Soc Austr. 46:114-118.
27. Page, J.K., (1961). The estimation of monthly mean values of daily total short wave radiation on vertical and inclined surface from sunshine records for latitudes 40N-40S. Proceedings of UN Conference on New Sources of Energy. 4: 378-390.
28. Chang, K., Zhang, Q., (2019). Improvement of the hourly global solar model and solar radiation for air-conditioning design in China. Renewable Energy. 138: 1232-1238. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.02.069
29. Tarhan, S., Sari, A., (2005). Model selection for global and diffuse radiation over the Central Black Sea (CBS) region of Turkey. Energy Conversion and Management. 46(4): 605-613. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2004.04.004
30. Bakirci, K., (2009). Correlations for estimation of daily global solar radiation with hours of bright sunshine in Turkey. Energy. 34:485-501. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2009.02.005
31. Katiyar, A.K., Pandey, C.K., (2010). Simple correlation for estimating the global solar radiation on horizontal surfaces in India. Energy. 35:5043-5048. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2010.08.014
32. Li, H., Ma, W., Lian, Y., Wang, X., Zhao, L., (2011). Global solar radiation estimation with sunshine duration in Tibet. China. Renewable Energy. 36:3141-3145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2011.03.019
33. Behrang, M.A., Assareh, E., Noghrehabadi, A.R., Ghanbarzadeh, A., (2011). New sunshine-based models for predicting global solar radiation using PSO (particle swarm optimization) technique. Energy. 36:3036-3049. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2011.02.048
34. Duzen, H., Aydin, H., (2012). Sunshine-based estimation of global solar radiation on horizontal surface at Lake Van region (Turkey). Energy Conversion and Management. 58: 35-46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2011.11.028
35. Teke, A., Yıldırım, H.B., (2014). Estimating the monthly global solar radiation for Eastern Mediterranean Region. Energy Conversion and Management. 87:628-635. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2014.07.052
36. Chelbi, M., Gagnon, Y., Waewsak, J., (2015). Solar radiation mapping using sunshine duration based models and interpolation techniques: application to Tunisia. Energy Conversion and Management. 101: 203-215. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2015.04.052
37. Dincer, I., Dilmac, S., Ture, I.E., Edin M., (1996). A simple technique for estimating solar radiation parameters and its application for Gebze. Energy Conversion and Management. 37 (2):183-198. https://doi.org/10.1016/0196-8904(95)00168-D
38. Dumas, A., Andrisani, A., Bonnici, M., Graditi, G., Leanza, G., Madonia, M., Trancossi, M., (2015). A new correlation between global solar energy radiation and daily temperature variations. Solar Energy. 116: 117–124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2015.04.002
39. Trabea, A.A., Shaltout, M.A.M., (2000). Correlation of global solar radiation with meteorological parameters over Egypt. Renewable Energy. 21:297-308. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0960-1481(99)00127-5
40. Annandale, J., Jovanovic, N., Benadé, N., Allen, R., (2002). Software for missing data error analysis of Penman–Monteith reference evapotranspiration. Irrigation Science. 21:57-67. https://doi.org/10.1007/s002710100047
41. Allen, R.G., (1997). Self-calibrating method for estimating solar radiation from air temperature. J Hydrolic Engineering. 2(2):56-67. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(1997)2:2(56)
42. Goodin, D., Hutchinson, J., Vanderlip, R.L., Knapp, M.C., (1999). Estimating solar irradiance for crop modeling using daily air temperature data. Acronomy Journal. 91(5): 845-851. https://doi.org/10.2134/agronj1999.915845x
43. Tapakis, R., Michaelides, S., Charalambides, A.G., (2016). Computations of diffuse fraction of global irradiance: Part 1– Analytical modelling. Solar Energy. 139:711-722. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2014.10.005
44. Kurtz, B., Kleissl, J. (2017). Measuring diffuse, direct, and global irradiance using a sky imager. Energy. 141: 311-322. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2016.11.032
45. Mghouchi, Y.E., Bouardi, A.E., Choulli, Z., Ajzoul, T., (2016). Models for obtaining the Daily direct, diffuse and global solar radiations. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 56: 87-99. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.11.044
46. Yorukoglu, M., Celik, A.N., (2006). A critical review on the estimation of daily global solar radiation from sunshine duration. Energy Conversion and Management. 47 (15):2441-2450. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2005.11.002