A Decision Tree-Based Dynamic Maintenance Interval Model Incorporating Driver Behavior and Traffic Congestion: An Application to an Electric Bus Fleet

Yunus Emre Ekici

doi:10.64808/engineeringperspective.1904906

A Decision Tree-Based Dynamic Maintenance Interval Model Incorporating Driver Behavior and Traffic Congestion: An Application to an Electric Bus Fleet

Abstract

In The increasing electrification of urban bus fleets necessitates maintenance strategies that reflect real-world operational variability rather than relying on fixed mileage intervals. This study proposes a Decision Tree (DT)-based dynamic maintenance interval model developed using approximately 58,343 high-resolution operational records collected from 20 drivers operating the same electric bus route under comparable boundary conditions. The dataset includes energy consumption, vehicle speed, vehicle mass, ambient temperature, road slope, acceleration, regenerative braking power, and traffic congestion indicators. Correlation analysis revealed strong associations between operational variables and failure indicators, with coefficients reaching up to 0.94. Among the evaluated regression techniques, the Decision Tree model demonstrated superior predictive performance (R² = 0.95, RMSE = 0.314, MSE = 0.1523, MAE = 0.343), outperforming Support Vector Machine (R² = 0.93) and Gaussian Process Regression (R² = 0.92). The optimal operating profile identified by the DT-based estimation indicated an energy consumption level of 501 kW, an average vehicle speed of 47 km/h, acceleration of 0.27 m/s², slope of 3.45%, and recuperation power of 612 kW under 23.5% traffic congestion. Driver-level comparisons showed that deviations from these optimal parameters resulted in measurable shifts in projected maintenance intervals, particularly for drivers exhibiting higher acceleration (≥0.35 m/s²) and elevated energy consumption (>540 kW). The findings demonstrate that maintenance thresholds in electric bus systems are strongly influenced by operational behavior and can be dynamically adjusted through data-driven modeling. The proposed framework offers a quantitative basis for predictive maintenance scheduling, enabling fleet operators to reduce premature servicing and mitigate failure risk while improving operational efficiency.

Keywords

References

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Hybrid and Electric Vehicles and Powertrains

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Yunus Emre Ekici ^*
0000-0001-7791-0473
Türkiye

Publication Date

May 21, 2026

Submission Date

March 7, 2026

Acceptance Date

May 18, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 6 Number: 3

DOI

https://doi.org/10.64808/engineeringperspective.1904906

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA48LR78DK

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Ekici, Y. E. (2026). A Decision Tree-Based Dynamic Maintenance Interval Model Incorporating Driver Behavior and Traffic Congestion: An Application to an Electric Bus Fleet. Engineering Perspective, 6(3), 415-427. https://doi.org/10.64808/engineeringperspective.1904906

AMA

1.Ekici YE. A Decision Tree-Based Dynamic Maintenance Interval Model Incorporating Driver Behavior and Traffic Congestion: An Application to an Electric Bus Fleet. engineeringperspective. 2026;6(3):415-427. doi:10.64808/engineeringperspective.1904906

Chicago

Ekici, Yunus Emre. 2026. “A Decision Tree-Based Dynamic Maintenance Interval Model Incorporating Driver Behavior and Traffic Congestion: An Application to an Electric Bus Fleet”. Engineering Perspective 6 (3): 415-27. https://doi.org/10.64808/engineeringperspective.1904906.

EndNote

Ekici YE (May 1, 2026) A Decision Tree-Based Dynamic Maintenance Interval Model Incorporating Driver Behavior and Traffic Congestion: An Application to an Electric Bus Fleet. Engineering Perspective 6 3 415–427.

IEEE

[1]Y. E. Ekici, “A Decision Tree-Based Dynamic Maintenance Interval Model Incorporating Driver Behavior and Traffic Congestion: An Application to an Electric Bus Fleet”, engineeringperspective, vol. 6, no. 3, pp. 415–427, May 2026, doi: 10.64808/engineeringperspective.1904906.

ISNAD

Ekici, Yunus Emre. “A Decision Tree-Based Dynamic Maintenance Interval Model Incorporating Driver Behavior and Traffic Congestion: An Application to an Electric Bus Fleet”. Engineering Perspective 6/3 (May 1, 2026): 415-427. https://doi.org/10.64808/engineeringperspective.1904906.

JAMA

1.Ekici YE. A Decision Tree-Based Dynamic Maintenance Interval Model Incorporating Driver Behavior and Traffic Congestion: An Application to an Electric Bus Fleet. engineeringperspective. 2026;6:415–427.

MLA

Ekici, Yunus Emre. “A Decision Tree-Based Dynamic Maintenance Interval Model Incorporating Driver Behavior and Traffic Congestion: An Application to an Electric Bus Fleet”. Engineering Perspective, vol. 6, no. 3, May 2026, pp. 415-27, doi:10.64808/engineeringperspective.1904906.

Vancouver

1.Yunus Emre Ekici. A Decision Tree-Based Dynamic Maintenance Interval Model Incorporating Driver Behavior and Traffic Congestion: An Application to an Electric Bus Fleet. engineeringperspective. 2026 May 1;6(3):415-27. doi:10.64808/engineeringperspective.1904906