Türkiye İlleri Arasında Gelir Yakınsaması: Bir Gelir Eşitsizliği Yaklaşımı

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’nin 81 ili arasındaki gelir yakınsamasını, gelir dağılımı perspektifinden incelemektedir. 1992-2019 döneminde, beta ve sigma gelir yakınsamalarını araştırmak için yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testleri, OLS zaman serisi regresyonu, varyans ve varyasyon katsayısı araçları kullanılmıştır. Ampirik sonuçlar, nispeten yüksek gelirli iller için ülkenin ortalama kişi başı gelirine doğru güçlü bir yakınsamayı ve nispeten düşük gelirli iller için ortalama kişi başı gelirden güçlü bir ıraksamayı göstermektedir. Buna ek olarak; 1993-1994, 2001-2002, 2008-2009 ekonomik yavaşlama dönemlerinde iller arasındaki gelir açığının kapandığı; yüksek büyüme dönemlerinde ise iller arasındaki gelir dağılımının bozulduğu gözlemlenmiştir. Türkiye ekonomisinde, 2013 yılından itibaren görülen yavaşlamaya paralel olarak, iller arasındaki gelir farklılıklarında görülen azalma devam etmektedir. Bu çalışma literatürdeki diğer çalışmalardan üç noktada ayrışmaktadır. Birincisi, beta ve sigma gelir yakınsaması yaklaşımlarının beraber kullanılması, gelir eşitsizliği kavramı ile ilgili analiz yapmayı sağlayan alternatif bir araç yaratmıştır. İkincisi, yeni kullanılan veri setindeki gözlem sayısının yaklaşık iki katına çıkması, ampirik çalışmanın sonuçlarının doğruluğu açısından olumlu katkı sağlamıştır. Üçüncüsü, 1992-2019 döneminde ekonomide yapısal kırılmalara neden olabilecek olayların analize dahil edilmesi, çalışmanın çıktılarının güvenirliliğini artırmıştır.   

Keywords

• Gelir yakınsaması
• Gelir dağılımı
• Yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testleri
• EKK
• Varyans

Income Convergence Among Turkish Provinces: An Income Inequality Approach

Abstract

This study examines the income convergence among the 81 provinces of Turkey from the perspective of the income distribution. Unit root tests with a structural break, OLS time-series regression, variance, and coefficient of variation analysis are employed to investigate the beta and sigma income convergences over the 1992-2019 period. The empirical results indicate strong convergence to the average for the relatively high-income provinces and strong divergence from the average for the relatively low-income provinces. In addition, a closing income gap among provinces is observed in the economic slowdown periods 1993-1994, 2001-2002, 2008-2009 while the income distribution gets worse in the high-growth periods. In the Turkish economy, income differences between provinces have been decreasing in parallel with the slowing economic growth since 2013. This study differs from other studies in the literature on three points. First, the combined use of beta and sigma income convergence approaches has created an alternative tool to analyze the income inequality concept. Secondly, approximately doubling the number of observations in the newly used data set contributed positively to the accuracy of the results of the empirical study. Third, the inclusion of events that may cause structural breaks in the economy over the period 1992-2019, increased the reliability of the outputs of the study.

Keywords

• Income convergence
• Income distribution
• Unit root test with structural breaks
• OLS
• Variance

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