The Effects of Inflation on the Performance and Premium Production of Insurance Companies in Turkey

Abstract

In this study, it has been investigated how extent the performances and premium production of insurance companies are affected by inflation in Turkey, where inflation rates gradually accelerate. The effects of inflation were examined using two samples covering the periods 2006:1-2022:3 for profitability ratios and 2008:4-2022:3 for premium production. In the analyses, short and long-term causality between inflation and profitability rates were investigated with alternative time series techniques. In addition, the effects of inflation on the performance and premium production of insurance companies are examined with autoregression models in which the main explanatory variable is the inflation rate. For some insurance companies, short-term and long-term causality relationships with inflation have been determined in terms of certain performance criteria and premium production. These relations are generally unidirectional from inflation to premium production. Profitability measures and premium production are either not affected by inflation at all or are positively affected. It can be said that insurance companies have somehow managed to protect themselves from the effects of inflation. This may be due to the premiums being updated according to the changes in the inflation rate. Another reason may be that insurance companies increase their financial profitability with an effective fund management.

Keywords

• Insurance Companies
• Performance
• Premium Production
• Time Series Analysis
• Autoregression

Türkiye’de Enflasyonun Sigorta Şirketlerinin Performansına ve Prim Üretimlerine Etkileri

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, enflasyon oranlarının giderek hız kazandığı Türkiye’de, sigorta şirketlerinin performanslarının ve prim üretimlerinin enflasyondan nasıl etkilendiği araştırılmıştır. Karlılık oranları için 2006:1-2022:3 ve prim üretimi için de 2008:4-2022:3 dönemlerini kapsayan iki örneklem kullanılarak enflasyonun etkileri incelenmiştir. Analizlerde alternatif zaman serisi teknikleriyle, enflasyon ile karlılık oranları arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönemli nedensellikler araştırılmıştır. Buna ek olarak, başlıca açıklayıcı değişkenin enflasyon oranı olduğu ardışık bağlanımlı regresyon modelleriyle enflasyonun sigorta şirketlerinin performansları ve prim üretimleri üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. Bazı sigorta şirketleri için kimi performans ölçütleri ve prim üretimi açısından enflasyon ile kısa ve uzun dönemli nedensellik ilişkileri belirlenmiştir. Bu ilişkiler genelde enflasyondan prim üretimine doğru tek yönlüdür. Karlılık ölçütleri ve prim üretimi, enflasyondan ya hiç etkilenmemekte ya da pozitif etkilenmektedir. Sigorta şirketlerinin, bir şekilde enflasyonun etkilerinden korunmayı başardığı söylenebilir. Bu durum primlerin enflasyon oranındaki değişmelere göre güncellenmesinden ileri gelebilir. Bir diğer neden de sigorta şirketlerinin etkin bir fon yönetimi ile mali karlılıklarını yükseltmeleri olabilir.

Keywords

• Sigorta Şirketleri
• Performans
• Prim Üretimi
• Zaman Serisi Analizi
• Ardışık Bağlanımlı Regresyon

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