How Does Deglobalization Affect Economic Growth?

Abstract

The current global landscape has been marked by a series of factors, such as the US-China trade war, disintegration in the European Union (EU), the refugee crisis, and the pandemic, which have impeded the process of globalization. However, similar situations have been experienced in the past, such as colonization, the Great Depression, and the Cold War. The world has experienced periods of globalization (Globalization I, II, and III) as well as periods of deglobalization (Deglobalization I and II). There have been discussions about whether the current decade is experiencing deglobalization and its effects. In this context, the present study aims to investigate the effects of deglobalization on economic growth in 34 OECD countries during the period 2000-2019, in various dimensions. Using panel data analysis, the results indicate that trade and social deglobalization have a negative impact on economic growth, while financial deglobalization and the subdimensions of social deglobalization have a positive influence on growth. Additionally, the study reveals that political globalization is not significantly associated with economic growth. These findings contribute to the ongoing debate on the current state of globalization and its effects on economic development.

Keywords

• Deglobalization
• KOF Index
• Economic Growth

Küreselleşmeden Uzaklaşma Ekonomik Büyümeyi Nasıl Etkiler?

Abstract

Mevcut küresel düzen, ABD-Çin ticaret savaşı, Avrupa Birliği’ndeki dağılma, mülteci krizi ve son olarak pandemi gibi bir dizi faktör ile küreselleşme sürecinin yavaşladığını göstermektedir. Ancak bu durum geçmişte de yaşanmıştır (örneğin sömürgeleştirme, Büyük Buhran, Soğuk Savaş). Dünya bazı dönemlerde küreselleşirken (Küreselleşme I, II ve III), bazı dönemlerde küreselleşmeden uzaklaşmıştır (Küreselleşmeden Uzaklaşma I ve II). İçinde bulunduğumuz on yılın küreselleşmeden çıkıp çıkmadığı ve bunun etkileri üzerine tartışmalar bulunmaktadır. Bu argümanlar ışığında bu çalışma, 2000-2019 dönemi için 34 OECD ülkesinde küreselleşmeden uzaklaşmanın ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini çeşitli boyutlarıyla incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Panel veri analizi sonuçları, ticari ve sosyal küreselleşmeden uzaklaşmanın ekonomik büyümeyi olumsuz yönde etkilediğini, finansal küreselleşmeden uzaklaşmanın ve sosyal küreselleşmeden uzaklaşmanın alt boyutlarının ise olumlu yönde etkilediğini göstermektedir. Ek olarak, çalışma, politik küreselleşmenin ekonomik büyüme ile anlamlı bir şekilde ilişkili olmadığını ortaya koymakta ve ulaşılan bulgular, küreselleşmenin mevcut durumu ve bunun ekonomik kalkınma üzerindeki etkileri hakkında devam eden tartışmalara katkıda bulunmaktadır.

Keywords

• Küreselleşmeden Uzaklaşma
• KOF Endeksi
• Ekonomik Büyüme

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