Türkiye’de Enflasyon İstikrarsızlığı Çevre Kirliliğine Neden Olur mu? Fourier-Wavelet Nedensellik Testinden Kanıtlar

Abstract

Türkiye ekonomisi GSYH'nın istikrarı, enflasyon istikrarı, büyüme oranı ve döviz kuru konusunda birçok makroekonomik sorunla karşı karşıya kalmıştır. Bu durum son dönemlerde özellikle Covid 19 salgını ve Rusya- Ukrayna savaşı gibi olumsuzluklarla daha da hissedilir hale gelmiştir. Böylelikle Türkiye’de enflasyon artmış ve daha istikrarsız bir görünüme sahip olmuştur. Bununla birlikte çevresel sorunları da giderek artmıştır. Bu bilgiler ışığında çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de büyüme, enerji tüketimi ve finansal gelişmeyi kontrol değişkeni olarak dikkate alarak enflasyon istikrarsızlığı bağlamında CO2 emisyonları arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini 1990-2021 dönemi için incelemektedir. Bu amaç için öncelikle seriler dalgacık dönüşümüne tabi tutulmuştur. Sonrasında dönüştürülmüş seriler Fourier TY ve Fractional Fourier TY nedensellik testleri ile kısa, orta ve uzun vadeli olarak analiz edilmiştir. Fourier nedensellik testinden elde edilen bulgular, enflasyon istikrarsızlığının kısa, orta ve uzun vadede çevre kirliliğini teşvik ettiğini göstermektedir. Şokların kalıcı olup olmadığını test etmek için kullanılan Kesirli Fourier nedensellik testine göre ise sadece orta vadede, enflasyon istikrarsızlığından çevre kirliliğine kalıcılık söz konusudur. Bu çalışma Türkiye örneğinde konuyu ele alan ilk çalışmadır.

Keywords

• Enflasyon Istikrarsızlığı
• Çevresel Kalite
• Fourier TY Nedensellik Analizi
• Türkiye

Does Inflation Instability Cause Environmental Pollution in Türkiye? Evidence from the Fourier-Wavelet Causality Test

Abstract

The Turkish economy has faced many macroeconomic problems in terms of GDP stability, inflation stability, growth rate, and exchange rate. This situation has become even more noticeable in recent times, especially with the negative effects of the Covid 19 epidemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. Thus, inflation in Turkiye has increased and has a more unstable outlook. However, environmental problems have also increased. In light of this information, the aim of the study is to examine the causality relationship between inflation instability and environmental pollution for the period 1990-2021 by considering growth, energy consumption, and financial development as control variables in Turkiye. For this purpose, firstly, the series was subjected to wavelet transform. Afterwards, the transformed series were analyzed with the Fourier TY and Fractional Fourier TY causality tests as short, medium, and long term. Findings from the Fourier causality test show that inflation instability promotes environmental pollution in the short, medium, and long term. According to the Fractional Fourier causality test, which I used to test whether the shocks are permanent, there is persistence from inflation instability to environmental pollution only in the medium term. This study is the first to examine the subject in the case of Türkiye.

Keywords

• Inflation Instability
• Environmental Quality
• Fourier TY Causality Analysis
• Turkiye

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