Start-up Valuation: A New Method Proposal

Abstract

This research aims to develop a concrete new method for the valuation of start-ups that have just been initiated or are still in their infancy period. In other words, this study aims to develop a new valuation method for a business idea or companies that are at the seed stage or prototype/ trial production stage by testing some variables such as the scalability of the project, the qualification of the leading and research team, the number of the founders, the degrees of the team members, the industry in which the investment is made, etc. In this study, cross-section panel data and Augmented Cobb-Douglas production function for start-ups, which were sold through crowdfunding platforms or purchased by venture capital investment funds in Turkey in the period of 2022-2023, are used. The values of these start-ups were estimated with the ordinary least squares regression analysis and it is shown that the high-tech projects and the project team's education degrees have an important impact on the values of the start-ups funded through crowdfunding platforms; while the valuations made by venture capital funds show that start-ups with high technology and scalability characteristics have relatively higher values. This study also shows that start-up models like Berkus, scorecard valuation, or risk factors summation methods developed for high-income countries like the USA might not be suitable for valuation of the start-ups in developing countries like Turkey.

Keywords

• Start-up Valuation
• Innovation
• Scalability
• Cobb-Douglas Production Function
• Regression

Start-up Değerlemesi: Yeni bir Yöntem Önerisi

Abstract

Bu araştırma, Türkiye’de yeni kurulan teknoloji ve yenilik odaklı fikir aşamasındaki girişimlerin (start-up’ların) değerlemesinde kullanılacak yeni bir yöntem geliştirmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu çalışma, start-up’ların fikir veya projelerinin ölçeklenebilirliği, ekibinin niteliği, kurucuların sayısı, ekibin eğitim dereceleri, yatırımının içinde bulunduğu endüstri gibi bazı değişkenleri test etmek suretiyle, değerlerini etkileyen etmenlerin neler olduğunu; bulunan bu etmenlerin değeri ne kadar etkilediğini ve değerlemede işe yarayacak yeni bir yöntem geliştirmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Türkiye’de 2022-2023 döneminde kitle fonlama platformları (KFP) üzerinden tohum aşamasında satılan ya da girişim sermayesi yatırım fonları (GSYF) tarafından birinci turda payı satın alınan start-up’ların yataykesit verilerinin ve Cobb-Douglas üretim modelinin kullanıldığı bu çalışmada, normal en küçük kareler regresyon analiziyle söz konusu start-up’ların değerleri tahmin edilmiştir. Araştırma sonuçları, Türkiye’deki KFP’lerce fonlanan tohum işletmelerin hisselerinin değerleri için yüksek teknolojinin ve proje ekibinin eğitim derecelerinin önemli bir etkiye sahip olduğunu; GSYF’lerin satın aldığı start-up’lar için yapılan değerlemelerde ise, start-up’ların yüksek teknolojiye ve ölçeklenebilirlik özelliklerine sahip projelerinin nispeten daha yüksek etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Araştırma sonucu, ABD gibi gelişmiş ülkelerdeki start-up değerlemesinde kullanılan Berkus, puankartı değerleme yöntemi veya risk faktörlerini toplama yöntemi gibi değerleme yöntemlerindeki değer katsayılarının Türkiye’ye uygulanması halinde, çok gerçekçi sonuçlar alınmayacağını; her ülkedeki şirketlerin değer katsayılarının farklı olabileceğini göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Start-up Değerlemesi
• İnovasyon
• Ölçeklenebilme
• Cobb-Douglas Üretim Fonksiyonu
• Regresyon

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