Bitcoin Volatilitesinin COVID-19 Pandemisi Döneminde Analizi: ARCH ve GARCH Modelleriyle Bir İnceleme

Abstract

COVID-19 pandemi süreci küresel ekonomi ve finansal piyasalar üzerinde derin etkiler bırakmış olup bu durum kripto para piyasalarını da önemli ölçüde etkilemiştir. Bu çalışmada COVID-19 sürecinin Bitcoin fiyat hareketleri üzerindeki etkileri analiz edilmiştir. Araştırmada, Bitcoin'in 01/03/2020- 01/04/2022 tarihleri arasındaki günlük fiyat verileri incelenmiş ve ARCH ve GARCH modelleri kullanılarak volatilite tahmini yapılmıştır. Bulgular pandeminin başlangıç döneminde Bitcoin’in volatilitesinde belirgin bir artış olduğunu göstermektedir. Pandemi dönemi finansal piyasalardaki belirsizlikleri artırmakla birlikte yatırımcıların kripto paraları ilgisinin de yükseldiği bir dönemi yansıtmaktadır. Çalışmada kullanılan ARCH modeli, volatilitenin kısa vadeli dinamiklerini analiz etmede sınırlı bir başarı gösterirken, GARCH modeli sonuçları volatilitenin uzun vadeli eğilimlerini daha etkili bir şekilde yakalamıştır. Bununla birlikte her iki model de pandemi gibi kriz dönemlerinde gözlemlenen ani ve ekstrem volatilite artışlarını tam anlamıyla öngörmekte yetersiz kalmıştır. Çalışma, yalnızca pandeminin kripto para piyasalarındaki etkilerini analiz etmekle kalmayıp, yatırımcı davranışları ve volatilite yönetimi konularında da önemli çıkarımlar sağlamaktadır. Aynı zamanda kripto para piyasalarında risk yönetimi ve düzenleyici çerçevelerin geliştirilmesinin önemine işaret etmektedir.

Keywords

• Bitcoin
• GARCH
• ARCH
• Volatilite
• COVID-19

Analysis of Bitcoin Volatility during the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Examination Using ARCH and GARCH Models

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound effect on the global economy and financial markets, including a significant impact on the cryptocurrency markets. This study analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 process on bitcoin price movements. The study examines the daily price data of bitcoin between 01/03/2020 and 01/04/2022 and uses ARCH and GARCH models to estimate volatility. The results show that there was a significant increase in bitcoin volatility during the initial period of the pandemic. This reflects a period when the pandemic increased uncertainty in financial markets and spurred investor interest in cryptocurrencies. While the ARCH model showed limited success in analyzing the short-term dynamics of volatility, the GARCH model captured the long-term trends in volatility more effectively. However, both models were insufficient to fully predict the sudden and extreme increases in volatility observed during crisis periods such as the pandemic. In addition to analyzing the impact of the pandemic on cryptocurrency markets, the study provides important implications for investor behavior and volatility management. In this context, it highlights the importance of developing risk management and regulatory frameworks in cryptocurrency markets.

Keywords

• Bitcoin
• Volatility
• GARCH
• ARCH
• COVID-19

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