Türkiye'de Elektrik Tüketimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Bölgesel Analizi

Abstract

Elektrik tüketimi ülkelerin gelişmişlik düzeyini ölçmede önemli bir gösterge olarak kabul edilmektedir. Ekonomik büyüme, kentleşme, beşerî sermaye gibi pek çok unsur elektrik tüketimi ile ilişkilidir. Literatürde elektrik tüketimi ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki saklama hipotezi, enerji odaklı büyüme hipotezi, geri bildirim hipotezi, tarafsızlık hipotezi ve koruma hipotezi olmak üzere beş farklı hipotez ile açıklanmaktadır. Bu çalışma Türkiye’de bölgesel bazda elektrik tüketimi ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini test etmektedir. Bu amaçla, 81 il için 2008-2021 dönemini kapsayan yıllık veriler kullanılarak Juodis, Karavias ve Sarafidis'in (2021) tarafından geliştirilen Granger nedensellik analizi uygulanmaktadır. Bu yöntem hem tek değişkenli hem de çok değişkenli nedensellik analizlerine olanak tanımaktadır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre Türkiye’deki iller için elektrik tüketiminden ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi gözlenmektedir. Bu sonuç Türkiye’de enerji odaklı büyüme hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir. Çalışmanın diğer bulgularına göre nüfus yoğunluğu ile ekonomik büyüme arasında tek yönlü, beşerî sermaye ile ekonomik büyüme arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu gözlenmektedir.

Keywords

• Elektrik Tüketimi
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Nüfus Yoğunluğu
• Beşerî Sermaye
• Nedensellik Analizi

Regional Analysis of the Relationship between Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Türkiye

Abstract

Electricity consumption is considered an important indicator for measuring the development level of countries. Various factors, such as economic growth, urbanization, and human capital, are associated with electricity consumption. In the literature, the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth is explained through five different hypotheses: the conservation hypothesis, the energy-focused growth hypothesis, the feedback hypothesis, the neutrality hypothesis, and the preservation hypothesis. This study examines the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth on a regional level in Türkiye. To do so, we apply the Granger causality analysis developed by Juodis, Karavias, and Sarafidis (2021) for 81 provinces over the 2008–2021 period. This method allows for both univariate and multivariate causality analyses. The findings indicate a unidirectional causality relationship from electricity consumption to economic growth for provinces in Türkiye. This result suggests that the energy-focused growth hypothesis is valid for Türkiye. Furthermore, the study reveals a unidirectional causality from population density to economic growth and a bidirectional causality between human capital and economic growth.

Keywords

• Electricity Consumption
• Economic Growth
• Population Density
• Human Capital
• Causality Analysis

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