Türkiye'de Hanehalkı Tüketim Harcamaları: Sosyo-Ekonomik Belirleyiciler, Harcama Desenleri ve Politika Perspektifleri

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 2005–2019 yılları arasında Türkiye’de hanehalkı tüketimini belirleyen sosyo-ekonomik faktörleri incelemekte; veri aşırı yayılımını dikkate alarak Marshallgil talep fonksiyonu ve negatif binominal regresyon modeli kullanmaktadır. Hanehalkı Bütçe Anketleri ile bölgesel Tüketici Fiyat Endeksi verilerinin birleştirilmesiyle oluşturulan özgün veri seti, gelir, eğitim, hanehalkı büyüklüğü ve demografik yapının çeşitli harcama kategorileri üzerindeki etkilerini analiz etmektedir. Bulgular, yüksek gelirli hanelerin ihtiyari harcamalara daha fazla pay ayırırken, düşük gelirli grupların zorunlu harcamalara odaklandığını göstermektedir. Eğitim, konut ve beşeri sermaye harcamalarının belirleyicisi olarak doğrusal olmayan bir etki göstermektedir. Tüketim, yaş ve hane büyüklüğüyle birlikte artmakta ancak zamanla azalma eğilimi göstermektedir; bu durum yaşam döngüsü ve ölçek ekonomilerine işaret etmektedir. Ayni transferler doğrudan harcamaları azaltmakta, ipotek kredileri tüketimi sınırlamakta ve tek ebeveynli haneler daha fazla mali baskı yaşarken, geniş aileler maliyet paylaşımından fayda sağlamaktadır. Bulgular, sosyo-ekonomik faktörlerle tüketim davranışı arasındaki karmaşık ilişkiyi ortaya koyarak hane refahı ve eşitsizlik politikaları açısından önemli çıkarımlar sunmaktadır.

Keywords

• Hanehalkı Tüketim Harcaması
• Sosyo-ekonomik Belirleyiciler
• Talep Fonksiyonu
• Negatif Binominal Regresyon
• Tüketici Davranışı

Household Consumption Expenditures in Türkiye: Socio-Economic Determinants, Spending Patterns, and Policy Perspectives

Abstract

This study investigates the socio-economic determinants of household consumption in Türkiye from 2005 to 2019, using the Marshallian demand function and a negative binomial regression model to address data overdispersion. Based on a uniquely constructed dataset combining Household Budget Surveys and regional Consumer Price Index, the analysis examines how income, education, household size, and demographic structure influence spending across expenditure categories. Results show that higher-income households allocate more to discretionary goods, while lower-income groups focus on necessities. Education is a key driver of spending on housing and human capital, with a nonlinear effect. Consumption rises with age and size but later declines, reflecting life-cycle and scale effects. In-kind transfers reduce direct spending, mortgage debt limits consumption, and single-parent households face greater financial pressure, unlike extended families who benefit from economies of scale. These findings underscore the complex relationship between socio-economic factors and consumption, offering policy insights into household welfare and inequality.

Keywords

• Household Consumption Expenditures
• Socio-economic Determinants
• Demand Function
• Negative Binominal Regression
• Consumer Behavior

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