Macroeconomic Factors Determining Economic Complexity: An Empirical Analysis for E7 Countries

Abstract

This study aims to examine the possible relationships between the Economic Complexity Index (ECI), which reflects the knowledge base and technology intensity in countries' production structures, and various macroeconomic variables. Economic complexity provides important insights into countries' long-term growth potential based on the diversity and sophistication levels in their production structures. The study analyzes the E-7 (Emerging-7) countries, which are among the developing countries and stand out with their high growth potential. Using an annual panel data set for the period 2000-2009, the study empirically tests the possible determinants of economic complexity. To mitigate the risk of bias in estimation results due to potential endogeneity issues among the determinants, the Instrumental Variables (IV) approach based on Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) was applied. The findings were evaluated comparatively with the Driscoll-Kraay estimator, which disregards the endogeneity assumption. The findings show that the economic growth rate, foreign direct investment, and terms of trade increase economic complexity, while low human capital levels and high dependence on natural resource rents have a reducing effect. The findings emphasize the importance of considering the endogeneity problem in policy implications.

Keywords

• Economic Complexity
• E-7 Countries
• Panel Data Endogeneity

Ekonomik Karmaşıklığı Belirleyen Makroekonomik Faktörler: E7 Ülkeleri Üzerine Ampirik Bir Analiz

Abstract

Bu çalışma, ülkelerin üretim yapılarında yer alan bilgi birikimi ve teknoloji yoğunluğunu yansıtan Ekonomik Karmaşıklık Endeksi (ECI) ile çeşitli makroekonomik değişkenler arasındaki olası ilişkileri incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Ekonomik karmaşıklık, ülkelerin üretim yapılarındaki çeşitlilik ve sofistikasyon düzeyine bağlı olarak, uzun vadeli büyüme potansiyelleri hakkında önemli bilgiler sunmaktadır. Araştırmada, gelişmekte olan ülkeler arasında yer alan ve yüksek büyüme potansiyeliyle öne çıkan E-7 (Emerging-7) ülkeleri analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada, 2000-2009 dönemine ait yıllık panel veri seti kullanılarak, ekonomik karmaşıklığın olası belirleyicileri ampirik olarak test edilmiştir. Belirleyiciler arasında ortaya çıkabilecek olası içsellik probleminin tahmin sonuçlarını saptırma riskine karşı Araç Değişkenler yaklaşımına dayalı İki Aşamalı En Küçük Kareler (IV-2SLS) yöntemi uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, içsellik varsayımını göz ardı eden Driscoll-Kraay tahmincisi ile karşılaştırmalı olarak değerlendirilmiştir. Bulgular, ekonomik büyüme oranı, doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları ve ticaret hadlerinin ekonomik karmaşıklığı artırdığını; düşük beşeri sermaye düzeyi ile doğal kaynak rantına yüksek bağımlılığın ise azaltıcı etkiler yarattığını göstermektedir. Bulgular, politika çıkarımlarında içsellik probleminin dikkate alınmasının önemini vurgulamaktadır.

Keywords

• Ekonomik Karmaşıklık
• E-7 Ülkeleri
• Panel Veri İçsellik

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