Türkiye’de Sağlık Enflasyonunun Belirleyicileri ve Bölgesel Etkileşimleri: Mekansal Panel Veri Analizi Bulguları

Year 2026, Volume: 11 Issue: 1 , 21 - 39 , 31.03.2026

Nazife Zeynep Çakır

https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1777387

https://izlik.org/JA56SE89LM

Abstract

Sağlık sektöründe meydana gelen mal ve hizmet fiyatlarındaki artış olarak tanımlanan sağlık enflasyonu, bireylerin sağlık hizmetlerine olan erişimini riske atmaktadır. Kamu bütçesi üzerinde baskı yaratan sağlık enflasyonu, Türkiye’de özellikle son yıllarda artış eğilimi göstermektedir. Bu doğrultuda çalışmanın temel amacı, 2011-2021 döneminde Türkiye’de Düzey-2 bölgelerindeki sağlık enflasyonunun belirleyicilerini, mekansal panel veri analizi yöntemiyle incelemektir. İlgili çalışma, literatürde yeterince ele alınmamış bir konu olan sağlık enflasyonunu araştırma konusu edinmesi ve mekansal veri analizi sürecinde uygun mekansal ağırlık matrisinin seçimine vurgu yapmasıyla diğer çalışmalardan ayrılmaktadır. Mekansal panel veri analizi neticesinde, queen komşuluk kriteri ile oluşturulan mekansal ağırlık matrisi kullanılarak tahmin edilen, sabit etkiler içeren mekansal gecikme modelinin uygun model olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Modele alınan açıklayıcı değişkenlerden genel enflasyon, üniversite mezun ve doğum oranları sağlık enflasyonunu artırmakta, sağlık alanındaki girişim sayısı, 100.000 kişi başına düşen hastane yatak sayısı ve genç nüfus oranı ise azaltmaktadır. Analizden elde edilen pozitif mekansal bağımlılık bulgusu ise sağlık enflasyonu konusunda Düzey-2 bölgelerindeki bölgesel etkileşimi vurgulamaktadır.

Keywords

Sağlık Enflasyonu , Bölgesel Etkileşim , Mekansal Panel Veri Analizi , Mekansal Ağırlık Matris Seçimi

Determinants and Regional Interactions of Health Inflation: Evidence from Spatial Panel Data Analysis in Turkey

https://izlik.org/JA56SE89LM

Abstract

Health inflation, which refers to the persistent rise in the costs of healthcare goods and services, constitutes a substantial barrier to access to medical care. By exerting pressure on the public budget, health inflation has shown an upward trend in Turkey, particularly in recent years. This study aims to examine the factors influencing health inflation in Turkey’s NUTS-2 regions over the period 2011–2021 through the application of spatial panel data analysis. The study differentiates itself from previous research by addressing health inflation, which has received limited attention in the literature, and by emphasizing the selection of an appropriate spatial weight matrix in the spatial data analysis process. The analysis identified the fixed-effects spatial lag model with a queen contiguity weight matrix as the appropriate model. Among the explanatory variables included in the model, general inflation, the proportion of university graduates, and birth rates were found to increase health inflation, whereas the number of enterprises in the health sector, the number of hospital beds per 100.000 population, and the share of the young population were found to reduce it. Finally, evidence of positive spatial dependence points to regional interaction in relation to health inflation among Turkey’s NUTS-2 regions.

Keywords

Health Inflation , Regional Interaction , Spatial Panel Data Analysis , Spatial Weight Matrix Selection

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