Dijitalleşmenin Bankacılık Üzerindeki İkili Etkisi: Türkiye ve AB'den Kanıtlar

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 2004-2024 yılları arasında dijital altyapı ve internet penetrasyonunun Türkiye ve 24 AB üyesi ülkedeki bankacılık sektöründeki yapısal değişimi nasıl şekillendirdiğini incelenmektedir. İnternet kullanımı, mobil abonelikler ve genişbant erişiminin istihdam, şube ağları, ATM’ler (Otomatik Para Çekme Makineleri) ve POS (Satış Noktası) terminalleri gibi temel bankacılık göstergelerini nasıl etkilediğini değerlendirmek için geniş bir panel veri seti ile sabit ve rassal etkiler modellerini içeren ikinci nesil ekonometrik teknikler kullanılmıştır. Bulgularımız, dijitalleşmenin çift yönlü bir etkisini ortaya koymaktadır. Daha fazla kişi internet ve genişbant erişimine kavuştukça, belirgin bir ikame etkisi fiziksel bankacılık altyapısını (şubeler ve ATM’ler) azaltmakta ve istihdamda hafif bir düşüşe yol açmaktadır. Mobil ağ genişlemesi ise, ATM’lerin şubeleri tamamlayıcı rolüne rağmen, yeni dijital roller yaratarak istihdamla olumlu bir bağlantı kurmaktadır. Bu çalışma, çelişen bu etkileri tek bir analitik çerçevede ayıran sağlam ve ülkeler arası kanıtlar sunarak literatüre katkıda bulunmaktadır. Bulgularımız, 20 yıllık bir panel içinde en güncel verilerle ikame ve tamamlayıcılık dinamiklerini eşzamanlı inceleyen çığır açıcı bir analiz sunarak, dijital geçiş sürecindeki politika yapıcılar ve finansal kurumlar için hayati önemde içgörüler sağlamaktadır.

Keywords

• Finans
• Bankacılık
• Finansal Teknolojiler

Digitalization's Dual Impact on Banking: Evidence from Türkiye and the EU

Abstract

This study examines how digital infrastructure and internet penetration shape structural change in the banking industry in Türkiye and 24 EU member states between 2004 and 2024. We use a large panel dataset and second-generation econometric techniques, including both fixed- and random-effects models, to assess how internet usage, mobile subscriptions, and broadband access affect key banking indicators, such as employment, branch networks, ATMs (Automated Teller Machines), and POS (Point of Sale) terminals. Our findings reveal a dual nature of digitalization's impact. As more people gain internet and broadband access, a clear substitution effect reduces physical banking infrastructure (branches and ATMs) and leads to a slight drop in employment. Mobile network expansion creates new digital roles, linking it positively to employment, even as ATMs supplement branches. By offering solid, cross-national evidence that separates these conflicting effects within a single analytical framework, this study adds to the body of knowledge. Our findings provide crucial insights for policymakers and financial institutions navigating the digital transition, as they present a groundbreaking analysis that simultaneously examines substitution and complementarity dynamics using the most recent data within a 20-year panel.

Keywords

• Finance
• Banking
• Financial Technologies

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