İklim Riski Kurumsal Finansal Performansı Etkiliyor mu? Türkiye’den Kanıtlar

Abstract

İklim riski sadece canlıları ve doğayı değil aynı zamanda giderek artan oranda işletmeleri de etkilemektedir. Dolayısıyla iklim riskinin işletmeler üzerindeki etkilerinin nicelleştirilmesi ve finansal performansları üzerindeki etkilerinin analiz edilmesi önemli bir araştırma sahası oluşturmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, bu çalışmanın amacı, iklim riskinin kurumsal finansal performans üzerindeki etkilerini araştırmaktır. Çalışmada iklim değişikliği risk ölçüsü olarak Bua vd. (2024) tarafından geliştirilmiş iklim risk endeksleri kullanılmaktadır. Araştırma kapsamında firma verileri olarak ise BIST Sürdürülebilirlik 25 Endeksi’nde yer alan finansal olmayan firmalara ait 2005–2023 dönemini kapsayan panel veri seti kullanılmaktadır. Bu doğrultuda, iklim risklerinin firma performansı üzerindeki etkilerini değerlendirebilmek amacıyla dinamik panel veri analiz tekniklerinden biri olan Sistem Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Yöntemi (System GMM) uygulanmıştır. Çalışma sonuçları hem fiziksel riskin hem de geçiş riskinin kurumsal finansal performans üzerinde olumsuz etkileri olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu çalışma iklim riski ve kurumsal finansal performans açısından politika yapıcılar ve işletmeler için önemli çıkarımlar sunmaktadır.

Keywords

• Finansal Performans
• İklim Riski
• Sürdürülebilirlik

Does Climate Risk Affect Corporate Financial Performance: Evidence from Türkiye

Abstract

Climate risk affects not only living things and nature but also, increasingly, firms. Therefore, quantifying the impacts of climate risk on firms and analyzing their impact on financial performance constitutes an important area of research. In this context, the objective of this study is to investigate the effects of climate risk on corporate financial performance. The research applies climate risk indices developed by Bua et al. (2024) as a proxy for climate change risk. For the purpose of this study, firm data for the BIST Sustainability 25 Index, listed non-financial companies, consisting of a panel data set between 2005 and 2023, is applied. In pursuit of this goal, the System Generalized Method of Moments (System GMM) was used, as it is considered a suitable estimator of dynamic panel data in measuring climate hazard impacts on financial performance. The results of the study show that both physical risk and transition risk have negative effects on corporate financial performance. This study provides important insights for policymakers and enterprises in terms of climate risk and corporate financial performance.

Keywords

• Financial Performance
• Climate Risk
• Sustainability

References

1. Abd-Elhaleim, A.H.M., Elawadly, H.S.H., Hikal, H.M.M. and Srour, A.A.-E.I. (2025). The moderating effect of corporate characteristics on the relationship between climate change risk disclosure and corporate value: Evidence from Egypt. Journal of Financial Reporting and Accounting, Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFRA-08-2024-0505
2. Abdulla, Y. and Jawad, A. (2024). Do MENA firms consider climate risks? Evidence from the relationship between ESG and firm performance. Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, 14(4), 870–888. https://doi.org/10.1080/20430795.2024.2334256
3. Adediran, I.A., Bewaji, P.N. and Oyadeyi, O.O. (2024). Climate risk and stock markets: Implications for market efficiency and return predictability. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 60(9), 1908–1928. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2023.2298251
4. Afzali, M., Colak, G. and Vähämaa, S. (2025). Climate change denial and corporate environmental responsibility. Journal of Business Ethics, 196, 31–59. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10551-024-05625-y
5. Arellano, M. and Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277-297. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297968
6. Arellano, M. and Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29-51. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01642-D
7. Arian, A. and Naeem, M.A. (2025). Climate risk and corporate investment behavior in emerging economies. Emerging Markets Review, 65, 101257. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101257
8. Aytürk, Y. and Yanik, S. (2015). How does working capital management affect the profitability of Turkish SMEs? The Journal of Accounting and Finance, (68), 157-168. https://doi.org/10.25095/mufad.396631

9. Barbu, T.C., Cepoi, C.O., Petrescu, C.R. and Vuță, M. (2022). The assessment of climate risk impact on the economy: A panel data approach. Amfiteatru Economic, 24(61), 597-612. https://doi.org/10.24818/EA/2022/61/597
10. Bauri, S., Mondal, A. and Fatma, U. (2025). Impact of climate risk on financial performance – evidence from select energy companies from select G-20 countries. International Journal of Energy Sector Management, 19(2), 241-268. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJESM-11-2023-0018
11. Blundell, R. and Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115-143. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8
12. Bua, G., Kapp, D., Ramella, F. and Rognone, L. (2024). Transition versus physical climate risk pricing in European financial markets: A text-based approach. The European Journal of Finance, 30(17), 2076–2110. https://doi.org/10.1080/1351847X.2024.2355103
13. Bun, M.J. and Windmeijer, F. (2010). The weak instrument problem of the system GMM estimator in dynamic panel data models. The Econometrics Journal, 13(1), 95-126. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1368-423X.2009.00299.x
14. Cavlak, H., Cebeci, Y., Güneş, N. and Tan, Ö.F. (2021). Global climate risk index and firm performance: Evidence from Turkish firms. In Çalıyurt K.T. (Eds.), Ethics and sustainability in accounting and finance, volume III. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-33-6636-7_13
15. Chen, M.-C., Cheng, S.-J. and Hwang, Y. (2005). An empirical investigation of the relationship between intellectual capital and firms’ market value and financial performance. Journal of Intellectual Capital, 6(2), 159–176. https://doi.org/10.1108/14691930510592771
16. Chen, S. and Wang, Z. (2025). Climate change and listed agricultural companies’ risk-taking. International Review of Economics and Finance, 99, 103961. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2025.103961
17. Chen, W. and Zhang Q. (2025). Can corporate climate risk drive digital transformation? Evidence from Chinese heavy-polluting enterprises. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 212, 123990. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2025.123990
18. Coşkun, E. and Kök, D. (2011). Effect of working capital policies on profitability: A dynamic panel analysis. Ege Academic Review, 11(5), 75-85. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/eab/
19. Cutcu, I., Keser, A. and Eren, M.V. (2023). Causation between energy consumption and climate change in the countries with the highest global climate risk. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30, 15585–15598. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-23181-8
20. D’Orazio, P. (2025). Climate risks and financial stability: Evidence on the effectiveness of climate-related financial policies. International Review of Financial Analysis, 105, 104304. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104304
21. Damodaran, A. (2012). Investment valuation: Tools and techniques for determining the value of any asset (3rd ed.). New Jersey: Wiley.
22. Dinh, T.T.H., Nguyen, T.H. and Nguyen, T.P. (2024). Climate-related risks, firm performance and role of risk reserve funds: empirical evidence in Vietnam. Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, 1–38. https://doi.org/10.1080/20430795.2024.2390953
23. Farzana, A., Samsudin, S. and Hasan, J. (2024). Drivers of economic growth: A dynamic short panel data analysis using system GMM. Discover Sustainability, 5(1), 393. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-024-00612-9
24. Fazil, S., Mubarik, F. and Gul, F. (2024). Intellectual capital, climate risk and financial performance: firm level analysis. International Journal of Social Science Archives, 7(1), 382–394. Retrieved from https://research.ebsco.com/c/iqvnmx/viewer/pdf/ux6soqny2z
25. Gahramanova, G. and Furtuna, Ö.K. (2023). Corporate climate change disclosures and capital structure strategies: evidence from Türkiye. Journal of Capital Markets Studies, 7(2), 140-155. https://doi.org/10.1108/JCMS-10-2023-0039
26. Gitman, L.J. and Zutter, C.J. (2015). Principles of managerial finance (14th ed.). Boston, MA: Pearson Education.
27. Gulaydin, O. and Mourshed, M. (2025). Net-zero Turkey: Renewable energy potential and implementation challenges. Energy for Sustainable Development, 87, 101744. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esd.2025.101744
28. Habib, A., Khan, M.A., Chuluunbaatar, E. and Oláh, J. (2025). Does mandatory CSR reporting help combat climate risk in the presence of green finance and green innovation? Amfiteatru Economic, 27(68), 163-179. https://doi.org/10.24818/EA/2025/68/163
29. Hansen, L.P. (1982). Large sample properties of generalized method of moments estimators. Econometrica, 1029-1054. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912775
30. He, F., Hao, J. and Lucey, B. (2024). Effects of climate risk on corporate green innovation cycles. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 205, 123447. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123447
31. Higgins, R.C. (2012). International financial statements and analysis. New York: McGraw-Hill.
32. Houari, O., Bennani, H. and de Comères, Q.B. (2025). Climate risks and economic activity in France: Evidence from media coverage. Journal of International Money and Finance, 155, 103340. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103340
33. Hu, Z. and Borjigin, S. (2024). The amplifying role of geopolitical Risks, economic policy Uncertainty, and climate risks on Energy-Stock market volatility spillover across economic cycles. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 71, 102114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2024.102114
34. Huang, H.H., Kerstein, J. and Wang, C. (2018). The impact of climate risk on firm performance and financing choices: An international comparison. Journal of International Business Studies, 49, 633–656. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41267-017-0125-5
35. Huang, X., Khan, Y.A., Arshed, N., Salem, S., Shabeer, M.G. and Hanif, U. (2023), Increasing social resilience against climate change risks: a case of extreme climate affected countries. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, 15(3), 412-431. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-04-2022-0051
36. IPCC. (2022). Climate change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Retrieved from https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/
37. Islam, M.N. and Wheatley, C.M. (2020). Impact of climate risk on firms’ use of trade credit: International evidence. The International Trade Journal, 35(1), 40–59. https://doi.org/10.1080/08853908.2020.1847217
38. Jin, Z. and Cairang, A. (2025). Impact of climate risk on airline stock price volatility. Finance Research Letters, 73, 106648. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2024.106648
39. Ke, X., Lin, J.Y., Fu, C. and Wang, Y. (2020). Transport infrastructure development and economic growth in China: recent evidence from dynamic panel system-GMM analysis. Sustainability, 12(14), 5618. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12145618
40. Khalid, F., Sun, J., Guo, J. and Srivastava, M. (2024). Green corporate image: Assessing the effects of climate change management practices on corporate reputation. Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, 31(3), 1786–1801. https://doi.org/10.1002/csr.2663
41. Khemiri, M.A. (2025). Climate risk and bank profitability in the MENA region: The Moderating role of financial development. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 15(3), 647–660. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.18864
42. Khemiri, M.A., Saidi, H. and Hakimi, A. (2025). Climate risk and bank performance: What role does corporate social responsibility play? International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 15(4), 73–82. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.19879
43. Kılıç, E., Puig, R., Zengin, G., Adıgüzel Z., C. and Fullana-i-Palmer, P. (2018). Corporate carbon footprint for country Climate Change mitigation: A case study of a tannery in Turkey. Science of The Total Environment, 635, 60-69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.111
44. Kılıç, M. and Kuzey, C. (2019a). Determinants of climate change disclosures in the Turkish banking industry. International Journal of Bank Marketing, 37(3), 901-926. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJBM-08-2018-0206
45. Kılıç, M. and Kuzey, C. (2019b). The effect of corporate governance on carbon emission disclosures: Evidence from Turkey. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, 11(1), 35-53. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-07-2017-0144
46. Kolsuz, G. and Yeldan, A.E. (2017). Economics of climate change and green employment: A general equilibrium investigation for Turkey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 70, 1240-1250. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.12.025
47. Lepore, C. and Fernando, R. (2023). Global economic impacts of physical climate risks (IMF Working Paper No. 2023/183). https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400254147.001
48. Li, B., Zhao, Q., Shahab, Y. and Lu, X. (2024). Preparing for climate volatility: exploring the impact of climate risk on excess cash holdings. Applied Economics Letters, 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2024.2363292
49. Li, C., Tang, W., Liang, F. and Wang, Z. (2024). The impact of climate change on corporate ESG performance: The role of resource misallocation in enterprises. Journal of Cleaner Production, 445, 141263. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.141263
50. Li, M. and Zha, H. (2025). Physical climate risk and corporate debt. Applied Economics Letters, 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2025.2495172
51. Lu, X., Hou, X. and Zeng, W. (2024). Effects of climate change on firm credit risk: Evidence from China. Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, 1–25. https://doi.org/10.1080/16081625.2024.2405498
52. Mhadhbi, K. (2014). Financial development and economic growth: A dynamic panel data analysis. International Journal of Econometrics and Financial Management, 2(2), 48-58. doi:10.12691/ijefm-2-2-1
53. Mondal, A. and Bauri, S. (2022). Climate risk and financial performance of energy companies – A Cross-Country Analysis. International Journal of Financial Management, 12(1), 11-22. Retrieved from https://openurl.ebsco.com/
54. Mondal, A. and Bauri, S. (2024), The impact of climate transition risk on firms’ value – evidence from select Indian-listed companies. Asian Journal of Accounting Research, 9(3), 257-274. https://doi.org/10.1108/AJAR-08-2023-0264
55. NASA, https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/what-is-climate-change/
56. NGFS. (2020). Climate scenarios for central banks and supervisors. Retrieved from https://www.ngfs.net/en/publications-and-statistics/publications/ngfs-climate-scenarios-central-banks-and-supervisors-0
57. Niu, M. and Li, G. (2022). The Impact of climate change risks on residential consumption in China: Evidence from ARMAX modeling and Granger Causality Analysis. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19, 12088. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191912088
58. Öncel, A.G. and Akbulut, D.H. (2024). Insights on climate change and sustainability reporting: Turkey case. In Çalıyurt K.T. (Eds.), New approaches to CSR, sustainability and accountability, Volume V. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-9145-7_6
59. Ozkan, A., Temiz, H. and Yildiz, Y. (2023). Climate risk, corporate social responsibility, and firm performance. British Journal of Management, 34, 1791–1810. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8551.12665
60. Penman, S. H. (2013). Financial statement analysis and security valuation (5th ed.). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill/Irwin.
61. Qi, C., Ma, Y., Du, M., Ma, X., Xu, Y. and Zhou, X. (2025). Impacts of climate change on inflation: An analysis based on long and short term effects and pass-through mechanisms. International Review of Economics and Finance, 98, 103846. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2025.103846
62. Qiu, X., Zhuang, Y. and Liu, X. (2025). Climate risk and corporate debt financing: Evidence from Chinese A-Share-Listed Firms. Sustainability, 17, 3870. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17093870
63. Roodman, D. (2009a). How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata. The Stata Journal, 9(1), 86-136. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X0900900106
64. Roodman, D. (2009b). A note on the theme of too many instruments. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 71(1), 135-158. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2008.00542.x
65. Sun, Y., Yang, Y., Huang, N. and Zou, X. (2020). The impacts of climate change risks on financial performance of mining industry: Evidence from listed companies in China. Resources Policy, 69, 101828. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101828
66. Sun, Y., Zou, Y., Jiang, J. and Yang, Y. (2023). Climate change risks and financial performance of the electric power sector: Evidence from listed companies in China. Climate Risk Management, 39, 100474. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2022.100474
67. Thai, H.M., Nguyen Thuc Huong, G., Nguyen, T.T., Pham, H.T., Nguyen, H.T.K. and Vu, T.H. (2024). Impacts of climate change risks on financial performance of listed firms in agriculture industries in Vietnam. Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies, 14(5), 937-957. https://doi.org/10.1108/JADEE-07-2022-0137
68. Windmeijer, F. (2005). A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators. Journal of Econometrics, 126(1), 25-51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2004.02.005
69. WMO. (2025). Global annual to decadal climate update (2025-2029). Retrieved from https://wmo.int/files/wmo-global-annual-decadal-climate-update-2025-2029
70. World Bank. (2022). Türkiye country climate and development report. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37521
71. Wright, C. and Nyberg, D. (2024). Corporations and climate change: An overview. WIREs Climate Change, 15(6), e919. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.919
72. Xing, X., Ouyang, W., Deng, J. and Lin, Z. (2024). The impact of climate change factors on financial markets: Evidence from China. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 61(4), 858–874. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2024.2399540
73. Yao, J. and Yang, C. (2025). Financial technology and climate risks in the financial market. International Review of Financial Analysis, 99, 103920. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2025.103920
74. Yin, Z., Deng, R., Xia, J. and Zhao, L. (2024). Climate risk and corporate ESG performance: Evidence from China. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 74, 102245. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2024.102245
75. Zhang, X., Zhang, M. and Fang, Z. (2023). Impact of climate risk on the financial performance and financial policies of enterprises. Sustainability, 15, 14833. https://doi.org/10.3390/su152014833
76. Zhao, L. and Parhizgari, A.M. (2024). Climate change, technological innovation, and firm performance. International Review of Economics and Finance, 93, 189–203. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2024.04.025