Türkiye’de Birincil Enerji Tüketiminde Sektör Yakınsama Analizi

Abstract

Bu çalışma, sektörlerin enerji tüketimini Phillips-Sul Kulüp Yakınsama modeli ile analiz etmeyi ve sektörlerin katma değeri, enerji tüketimi ve enerji fiyatlarındaki sapmalar arasındaki ilişkiyi Momentler Kantil Regresyonu yöntemi ile ele almayı amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmada ilk olarak, 1992-2021 dönemi için Türkiye’deki temel sektörler ve bunların alt sektörlerinin doğalgaz ve petrol ürünleri tüketimi kulüp yakınsama yöntemiyle incelenmiştir. Çalışmanın ikinci aşamasında ise sektörlerin faktör maliyetiyle katma değer verileri ele alınmış, enerji tüketimi ile enerji fiyatlarındaki sapmaların katma değere etkisi analiz edilmiştir. Analizin ilk aşamasında kulüp yakınsama yöntemi ile doğalgaz ve petrol ürünleri tüketiminde yakınsayan sektörler tespit edilmiştir. Doğalgaz tüketiminde sektörler arasında bir adet alt kulüp oluşurken, petrol tüketiminde ise üç adet alt kulüp tespit edilmiştir. Analizin ikinci aşamasında, yakınsayan sektörler için uygulanan Momentler Kantil Regresyonu sonuçlarına göre, petrol tüketiminin tüm kantillerde sektörlerin katma değerini pozitif etkilediği tespit edilmiştir. Sektörlerin doğalgaz tüketimi incelendiğinde ise sektörlerin katma değeri ile pozitif ve anlamlı bir ilişki söz konusudur.

Keywords

• Enerji Ekonomisi
• Enerji Tüketimi
• Kulüp Yakınsama Analizi
• Momentler Kantil Regresyonu

Sectoral Convergence Analysis of Primary Energy Consumption in Turkey

Abstract

This study analyzes the energy consumption of sectors using the Phillips-Sul Club Convergence model and examines the relationship between sector value added, energy consumption, and deviations in energy prices via Quantile Moments Regression. First, the consumption of natural gas and petroleum products in the main sectors and sub-sectors in Turkey for the period 1992-2021 is examined using the club convergence method. In the second stage of the study, the factor cost and value-added data of the sectors are considered, and the effect of energy consumption and deviations in energy prices on value added is analyzed. In the first stage of the analysis, one club was identified in natural gas consumption among the sectors, while three clubs were identified in petroleum consumption. In the second stage of the analysis, according to the regression results applied to the converging sectors, it was determined that petroleum consumption positively affects the value added of the sectors in all quantiles. A positive and significant relationship was observed between the value added and natural gas consumption of the sectors.

Keywords

• Energy Economics
• Energy Consumption
• Club Convergence Analysis
• Moments Quantile Regression

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