Türkiye’de Suriyeli Mültecilerin ve Bölgesel Dışa Açıklığın İşgücü Piyasasına Etkileri

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de 2011 yılında başlayan ve sayıları hızla artan Suriyeli mültecilerin işgücü piyasası üzerindeki etkilerini analiz etmektedir. Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu’nun 2009-2015 dönemine ait mikro düzey Hanehalkı İşgücü Anketi verileri kullanılarak mülteci nüfusundaki artışın istihdam üzerindeki etkisi Farkların Farkı yöntemiyle tahmin edilmiştir. Yöntemden elde edilen tahminlerin geçerliliğini güçlendirmek ve tedavi ile kontrol grupları arasındaki karşılaştırılabilirliği sağlamak amacıyla Eğilim Puanı Eşleştirmesi yöntemi uygulanmış ve böylece gözlemlenebilir yapısal farklılıkların etkisi dengelenerek tahminlerin içsel tutarlılığı güçlendirilmiştir. Ayrıca, küresel üretim ağlarına entegrasyonun bir göstergesi olan ticari dışa açıklık bölgesel düzeyde modele dahil edilerek çalışmanın kapsamı genişletilmiştir. Sonuçlar, Suriyeli mülteci nüfusundaki artışlar ile yerli işgücünün istihdam edilme olasılığı arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı negatif bir ilişkinin varlığıyla tutarlı kanıtlar sunmaktadır. Bu olumsuz etkinin özellikle kadın ve düşük vasıflı yerli işçiler arasında daha belirgin olduğu görülmektedir. Ayrıca, bölgesel dışa açıklık düzeyinin artması istihdam üzerinde pozitif bir etki yaratmakta, bu etki özellikle düşük vasıflı yerli işçiler açısından daha güçlü ortaya çıkmaktadır. Bulgular özellikle mülteci yoğun bölgelerde yerli işgücünü destekleyici politika önlemlerinin önemine işaret etmektedir.

Keywords

• Suriyeli Mülteciler
• İşgücü Piyasası
• İstihdam
• Ticari Dışa Açıklık
• Farkların Farkı Yöntemi

The Effects of Syrian Refugees and Regional Trade Openness on Türkiye’s Labor Market

Abstract

This study analyzes the labor market effects of the rapid influx of Syrian refugees into Türkiye beginning in 2011. Using micro-level Household Labor Force Survey data from the Turkish Statistical Institute for the period 2009–2015, the employment effects of the increase in the Syrian refugee population are estimated with a Difference-in-Differences method. Propensity Score Matching is implemented to strengthen the validity of the Difference-in-Differences estimates and ensure comparability between the treatment and control groups. This approach balances observable structural differences and, in turn, improves the internal consistency of the estimates. In addition, the empirical framework is further extended by incorporating regional trade openness into the model, a proxy for integration into global production networks.  The results provide evidence consistent with a statistically significant negative association between increases in the Syrian refugee population and the probability of employment among native workers, particularly among female and low-skilled native workers. Moreover, higher levels of regional trade openness have a positive effect on employment, especially for low-skilled native workers. These findings highlight the importance of policy measures aimed at supporting native workers in regions facing high refugee inflows.

Keywords

• Syrian Refugees
• Labor Market
• Employment
• Trade Openness
• Difference-in-Differences

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