G7 Ülkelerinde İşsizlik Histerisi: Doğrusal ve Doğrusal Olmayan Kanıtlar

Abstract

İşsizlik histerisi hipotezi, makroekonomik şokların işsizlik oranları üzerinde kalıcı etkiler yaratabileceğini ileri sürmektedir. Bu çalışma, G7 ülkelerinde işsizlik histerisinin geçerliliğini doğrusal ve doğrusal olmayan birim kök testleri kullanarak incelemektedir. Analizde, Ocak 2000–Aralık 2024 dönemine ait aylık ve mevsimsellikten arındırılmış işsizlik oranları kullanılmıştır. Öncelikle Harvey vd. (2008) doğrusal olmayanlık testi uygulanmıştır. Sonuçlara göre Kanada ve İtalya doğrusal olmayan dinamikler sergilerken, diğer G7 ülkelerinde doğrusal yapı hakimdir. Doğrusal seriler için Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF), Phillips–Perron (PP) ve Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) birim kök testleri uygulanmış; ayrıca yapısal kırılmaya izin veren Perron (1989) ve Zivot–Andrews (1992) testlerinden yararlanılmıştır. Doğrusal olmayan serilerde ise Kapetanios–Shin–Snell (KSS), Kruse (2011) ve Hepsag (2021) testleri kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, doğrusal yapı gösteren ülkelerde yapısal kırılmalar dikkate alındığında dahi işsizlik oranlarının durağan olmadığını ve şokların kalıcı etkiler yarattığını göstermektedir. Doğrusal olmayan ülkelerden Kanada’da ortalamaya dönüş gözlenirken, İtalya’da işsizlik oranı durağanlık göstermemekte ve histerisi hipotezini desteklemektedir. Genel olarak sonuçlar, işsizlik histerisinin G7 ülkelerinde ülkeye özgü kurumsal yapı ve uyum mekanizmalarına bağlı olarak farklılaştığını ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

• İşsizlik Histerisi
• NAIRU
• Yapısal Kırılmalar

Unemployment Hysteresis in G7 Countries: Linear and Nonlinear Evidence

Abstract

The unemployment hysteresis hypothesis suggests that macroeconomic shocks may generate persistent effects on unemployment rates. This study investigates the validity of unemployment hysteresis in G7 countries by accounting for linearity, structural breaks, and nonlinear adjustment dynamics. Monthly, seasonally adjusted unemployment rates covering January 2000–December 2024 are analyzed. Linearity is first examined using the Harvey et al. (2008) test, which identifies nonlinear dynamics in Canada and Italy, while unemployment series in the remaining G7 countries display linear behavior. For linear cases, stationarity is assessed using the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF), Phillips–Perron (PP), and Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) tests, together with Perron (1989) and Zivot–Andrews (1992) tests allowing for structural break. Nonlinear series are analyzed using the Kapetanios–Shin–Snell (KSS), Kruse (2011), and Hepsag (2021) tests. The results indicate persistent unemployment in linear economies, nonlinear mean reversion in Canada, and strong hysteresis in Italy, highlighting heterogeneous unemployment dynamics across G7 countries.

Keywords

• Unemployment Hysteresis
• NAIRU
• Structural Breaks

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