The Asymmetric Effects of Capital Flows on Economic Growth in Turkey

Abstract

Globalization is one of the most fundamental phenomena that characterize the twentieth century. Economically, the liberalization of national economies both in commercial and especially in financial terms within the framework of the globalization process, in other words, liberalization of capital flows has been the most important applications. The liberalization of capital flows and the opening of national economies to world markets are expected to ensure stable economic growth and resource distribution efficiency, and increase the competitiveness of the country's economy. In this study, the asymmetric effects of capital flows on economic growth are investigated. The reason for this is the idea of the existence of nonlinear relationships between the variables that cannot be determined linear relationships. In the empirical analysis conducted using data the period of 1970-2016, the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model was used. According to the findings, capital flows have asymmetric effects on economic growth. Accordingly, while capital inflows lead to an increase in economic growth, capital outflows reduce economic growth. The most important result of the findings is that the positive effect of capital inflows on growth is smaller than the negative effect of capital inflows. In other words, the devastating impact of capital outflows has been observed to be greater in the Turkish economy.

Keywords

• Capital Flows,Economic Growth,ARDL,NARDL,Turkey

Türkiye’de Sermaye Akımlarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Asimetrik Etkileri

Abstract

Yirminci yüzyılı karakterize eden en temel olguların başında küreselleşme gelmektedir. İktisadi açıdan, küreselleşme süreci çerçevesinde ulusal ekonomilerin hem ticari hem de özellikle finansal anlamda serbestleştirilmesi, yani sermaye akımlarının liberalizasyonu ortaya çıkan en önemli uygulamalar olmuştur. Sermaye akımlarının serbestleştirilmesi ve ulusal ekonomilerin dünya piyasalarına açılmasından beklenen, istikrarlı bir ekonomik büyüme ve kaynak dağılım etkinliğinin sağlanması, ülke ekonomisinin rekabet gücünün artırılmasıdır. Bu çalışmada sermaye akımlarının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki asimetrik etkileri araştırılmaktadır. Bunun nedeni, doğrusal ilişkiler tespit edilemeyen değişkenler arasında doğrusal olmayan ilişkilerin var olabilmesi düşüncesidir. Türkiye’nin 1970-2016 dönemine ilişkin verileri kullanılarak yapılan ampirik analizde, doğrusal olmayan gecikmesi dağıtılmış otoregresif model kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre sermaye akımları, ekonomik büyüme üzerinde asimetrik etkilere sahiptir. Buna göre, sermaye girişleri ekonomik büyümenin artmasına neden olurken, sermaye çıkışları ekonomik büyümenin azalmasına neden olmaktadır. Bulguların ortaya koyduğu en önemli sonuç, sermaye girişlerinin büyüme üzerindeki pozitif etkisinin, sermaye çıkışlarının negatif etkisinden daha küçük olmasıdır. Bir diğer ifade ile sermaye çıkışlarının yıkıcı etkisinin, Türkiye ekonomisinde daha büyük olduğu gözlenmiştir.

Keywords

• Sermaye Akımları,Ekonomik Büyüme,ARDL,NARDL,Türkiye

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