The Asymmetric Effects of Capital Flows on Economic Growth in Turkey

Year 2019, , 1 - 16, 19.03.2019

Şükrü Apaydın

https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.525223

Abstract

Globalization
is one of the most fundamental phenomena that characterize the twentieth
century. Economically, the liberalization of national economies both in
commercial and especially in financial terms within the framework of the
globalization process, in other words, liberalization of capital flows has been
the most important applications. The liberalization of capital flows and the
opening of national economies to world markets are expected to ensure stable
economic growth and resource distribution efficiency, and increase the
competitiveness of the country's economy. In
this study, the asymmetric effects of capital flows on economic growth are
investigated. The reason for this is the idea of the existence of
nonlinear relationships between the variables that cannot be determined linear
relationships. In the empirical analysis
conducted using data the period of 1970-2016, the nonlinear autoregressive
distributed lag (NARDL) model was used. According to the findings, capital
flows have asymmetric effects on economic growth. Accordingly, while capital inflows lead to an increase
in economic growth, capital outflows reduce economic growth. The most important
result of the findings is that the positive effect of capital inflows on growth
is smaller than the negative effect of capital inflows. In other words, the devastating impact of capital
outflows has been observed to be greater in the Turkish economy.

Keywords

Capital Flows, Economic Growth, ARDL, NARDL, Turkey

Türkiye’de Sermaye Akımlarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Asimetrik Etkileri

Abstract

Yirminci yüzyılı
karakterize eden en temel olguların başında küreselleşme gelmektedir. İktisadi
açıdan, küreselleşme süreci çerçevesinde ulusal ekonomilerin hem ticari hem de
özellikle finansal anlamda serbestleştirilmesi, yani sermaye akımlarının
liberalizasyonu ortaya çıkan en önemli uygulamalar olmuştur. Sermaye
akımlarının serbestleştirilmesi ve ulusal ekonomilerin dünya piyasalarına
açılmasından beklenen, istikrarlı bir ekonomik büyüme ve kaynak dağılım
etkinliğinin sağlanması, ülke ekonomisinin rekabet gücünün artırılmasıdır. Bu
çalışmada sermaye akımlarının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki asimetrik etkileri
araştırılmaktadır. Bunun nedeni, doğrusal ilişkiler tespit edilemeyen
değişkenler arasında doğrusal olmayan ilişkilerin var olabilmesi düşüncesidir.
Türkiye’nin 1970-2016 dönemine ilişkin verileri kullanılarak yapılan ampirik
analizde, doğrusal olmayan gecikmesi dağıtılmış otoregresif model
kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre sermaye akımları, ekonomik büyüme üzerinde
asimetrik etkilere sahiptir. Buna göre, sermaye girişleri ekonomik büyümenin
artmasına neden olurken, sermaye çıkışları
ekonomik büyümenin azalmasına neden olmaktadır. Bulguların ortaya koyduğu en
önemli sonuç, sermaye girişlerinin büyüme üzerindeki pozitif etkisinin, sermaye
çıkışlarının negatif etkisinden daha küçük olmasıdır. Bir diğer ifade ile
sermaye çıkışlarının yıkıcı etkisinin, Türkiye ekonomisinde daha büyük olduğu
gözlenmiştir.

Keywords

Sermaye Akımları, Ekonomik Büyüme, ARDL, NARDL, Türkiye

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