The Relationship between Inflation and Money Supply in Turkey: ARDL Boundary Testing Approach

Abstract

The relationship between money supply and inflation is one of the most popular and widely researched topics in economic theory. The aim of this paper is to investigate the hypothesis that there is a close relationship between money supply, inflation rate, interest rate and exchange rate, by using 2006:Q4-2018:Q4 quarterly data for Turkey. The ARDL boundary testing approach is used to test this hypothesis, since the interest variable is I(1) and the others are I(0). According to the analysis results, a significant and positive relationship is found between interest rate and inflation in the long run, but this relationship is very weak. On the other hand, there is no statistically significant relationship between exchange rate and inflation. Our analysis results also show that there is a statistically significant and positive relationship between M2 money supply and inflation in the long run. However, this relationship is not a strong one as stated in the quantity theory of money. Therefore, it is necessary to make emphasis on the supply-side factors for the determinants of inflation in Turkey.

Keywords

• Inflation
• Money Supply
• Interest
• Exchange Rate
• Turkey
• ARDL

Türkiye’de Para Arzı İle Enflasyon Arasındaki İlişki: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

Abstract

Para arzı ve enflasyon arasındaki ilişki iktisat teorisinde büyük ilgi gören ve yaygın bir şekilde araştırılan konulardan biridir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, para arzı, faiz oranı ve döviz kuru ile enflasyon oranı arasında yakın ilişki bulunabileceği hipotezini, 2006:Q4-2018:Q4 dönemine ait üç aylık Türkiye verileri ile test etmektir. Bu hipotezin test edilmesi için kullanılan değişkenlerin durağanlık analizlerinde faiz değişkeninin I(0) olması diğerlerinin I(1) olması nedeniyle ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, faiz oranı ile enflasyon arasında uzun dönemde anlamlı ve pozitif yönde bir ilişki bulunmuştur, fakat bu ilişki çok zayıftır. Diğer yandan döviz kuru ile enflasyon arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmamıştır. Analiz sonuçları ayrıca M2 para arzı büyüklüğü ile enflasyon oranı arasında uzun dönemde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif yönlü bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Ancak bu ilişki de paranın miktar teorisinde belirtildiği gibi güçlü bir ilişki değildir. Dolayısıyla Türkiye’deki enflasyonun belirleyicileri arasında maliyet itişli ve yapısal faktörlere vurgu yapmak gereklidir.

Keywords

• Enflasyon
• Para Arzı
• Faiz
• Döviz Kuru
• Türkiye
• ARDL

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