Faiz Oranının Kuru Dökme Yük Navlun Piyasasına Etkisinin Zamanla Değişen Nedensellik Yöntemiyle Analizi

Abstract

Faiz oranları hem gemi yatırımlarındaki maliyeti belirleyici rolü hem de dünya ekonomisindeki mallara olan talebi belirleyici rolü ile denizcilik piyasalarını da önemli ölçüde etkilemektedir. Biz bu çalışmamızda diğer denizcilik piyasalarının temeli olan ve onlara göre çok daha dinamik yapıda olan navlun piyasasına olan etkisini incelemeyi amaçladık. Faiz oranlarındaki değişimin dünya ekonomisini etkileyeceğini ancak bu etkinin tüm dönem boyunca varlığını sürdüremeyeceğinden yola çıkarak, önce doğrusal bir yaklaşımla, daha sonra ise zamana göre değişen bir yaklaşımla analizleri uyguladık. Analizlerde küresel faiz oranlarının göstergesi olarak Federal Fon Oranı, kuru dökme yük navlunlarının göstergesi olarak ise Baltık Kuru Yük Endeksi (BKYE) kullanılmıştır. 1995 ve 2020 yılları arasını kapsayan aylık 302 gözlemden oluşan veri seti kullanılarak zamana göre değişen yaklaşım ile yapılan analizler sonucunda, anlamlı ilişkinin tüm örneklem boyunca var olmadığı, sadece belli zamanlarda görüldüğü ve anlamlı ilişkinin görüldüğü dönemlerin BKYE’nin artış ve düşüş eğilimine girdiği dönemler olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Böylece faiz oranlarındaki değişimlerin yalnızca küresel ekonomiyi etkilemekle kalmayıp, kuru dökme yük navlun piyasasının eğilimini de etkilediği belirlenmiştir.

Keywords

• Faiz Oranı
• Navlun Piyasası
• Kuru Dökme Yük Taşımacılığı
• Nedensellik Analizi

Analyzing the Impact of Interest Rate on Dry Bulk Freight Market with Time-Varying Causality Method

Abstract

The interest rates significantly affect maritime markets, both with their role in determining the cost of ship investments and their role in determining the demand for goods in the world economy. We examined the impact on the freight market, which is the fundamental of other maritime markets and is much more dynamic than them. Considering that change in interest rates affects the world economy, but this effect may not survive throughout the period, we applied the analysis first with a linear approach and then with a time-varying approach. The federal funds rate is used as an indicator of global interest rates, and the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is used as an indicator of the dry bulk freight market. As a result of analysis performed using a data set consisting of 302 monthly observations covering the period between 1995 and 2020, it was determined that the significant relationship does not exist throughout the whole sample, it exists only at certain periods, and the significant effect occurs when BDI tends to increase and decrease. Thus, it was determined that changes in interest rates not only affect the global economy but also the trend of the dry bulk freight market.

Keywords

• Interest Rate
• Freight Market
• Dry Bulk Shipping
• Causality analysis

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