The Effects of Coronavirus (Covid-19) Epidemic on the Stock Market: The Case of BIST 100

Abstract

The coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak that emerged from central China in late December has spread all over the World. In addition to the negative consequences and threats of the epidemic on public health, its economic effects have also emerged rapidly. The policies implemented by the governments to prevent the spread of the epidemic and the necessary changes in people's lifestyles have affected all economic activities from production to consumption. The unexpected and rapid adversities show their economic effects on the stock markets initially. In the study, the effects of the Covid-19 outbreak on BIST 100 are examined. In analyzing the data, event study and time series (GARCH) method are used. According to the event study results, on March 10, 2020 the first day the Covid-19 pandemic emerged in Turkey, BIST 100 has an abnormal return. According to the sector index returns used in the analysis, all sectors (service, industry, finance, technology) have abnormal returns and were adversely affected during the epidemic period. Thus, it is revealed that the markets react quickly to unexpected events and are negatively affected. On the other hand, according to the time series analysis results, it is observed that the epidemic caused volatility and is effective on BIST 100.

Keywords

• Covid-19
• Stock Exchange
• Event Study

Koronavirüs (Covid-19) Salgınının Hisse Senedi Piyasasına Etkisi: BIST 100 Örneği

Abstract

Çin’de aralık ayı sonlarında ortaya çıkan korona virüs (Covid-19) salgını, bütün dünyaya yayılmıştır. Salgının toplum sağlığı üzerindeki olumsuz sonuçları ve tehditlerine ek olarak, ekonomik etkileri de hızla ortaya çıkmıştır. Yönetimlerin salgının yayılmasını engellemek için uyguladığı politikalar ve insanların yaşam şekillerinde meydana gelen zorunlu değişiklikler, üretimden tüketime bütün ekonomik faaliyetleri etkilemiştir. Beklenmedik ve hızlı bir şekilde ortaya çıkan olumsuzluklar ekonomik etkilerini ilk olarak borsalarda göstermektedir. Çalışmada, Covid-19 salgınının BIST 100 üzerindeki etkileri incelenmektedir. Verilerin analizinde, olay çalışması ve zaman serisi (GARCH) yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Olay çalışması sonuçlarına göre Türkiye'de Covid-19 salgınının ortaya çıktığı ilk gün olan 10 Mart 2020'de BIST 100 anormal getiriye sahiptir. Analizde kullanılan sektör endeks getirilerine göre, bütün sektörler (hizmet, sınai, mali, teknoloji) anormal getirilere sahiptir ve salgın döneminde olumsuz etkilenmişlerdir. Böylece, piyasaların beklenmeyen olaylara hızlı tepki verdiği ve olumsuz etkilendiği ortaya koyulmaktadır. Öte yandan, zaman serisi analiz sonuçlarına göre, salgının BIST 100 üzerinde oynaklığa yol açtığı ve etkili olduğu anlaşılmaktadır.

Keywords

• Covid-19
• Borsa
• Olay Çalışması

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