Do Sector and Resource Based Energy Uses Converge in Turkey? Panel TAR and Multiple Breaks Unit Root Findings

Abstract

Alternative solutions such as green growth, sustainable growth and increasing the share of renewable resources in energy use are proposed to eliminate the environmental pressure caused by fossil fuels. Based on this, in this study, a possible convergence relationship among the energy sources on a sectoral basis, and if so, whether this relationship is realized through fossil or renewable resources are empirically tested in the period of 1970-2017 for Turkey where sectoral transformations have taken place. Panel TAR (Threshold Autoregressive Models) data analysis findings show that there is no convergence relationship between the relevant sectors under the linear model, but there is a partial convergence under two regimes with different forms. In addition, the findings of Lumsdaine-Papell multiple structural breaks unit root analysis provide evidence that this partial convergence is realized through fossil fuels used in the relevant sectors. Renewable resources do not show convergence in any sector due to the presence of limited use areas within the sectors. This finding is considered as an indicator that the renewable energy policies and incentives in Turkey are insufficient in practice.

Keywords

• Energy Use
• Sector-Resource Analysis
• Convergence Analysis
• Panel TAR Data Analysis
• Lumsdaine-Papell Multiple Breaks Unit Root Test

Türkiye’de Sektör ve Kaynak Bazlı Enerji Kullanımları Yakınsıyor mu? Panel TAR ve Çoklu Kırılmalı Birim Kök Bulguları

Abstract

Fosil yakıtların neden olduğu çevresel baskının ortadan kaldırılması için yeşil büyüme, sürdürülebilir büyüme ve yenilenebilir kaynakların enerji kullanımındaki payının artırılması gibi alternatif çözümler ortaya atılmaktadır. Buradan hareketle bu çalışmada; sektörel dönüşümlerin yaşandığı 1970-2017 dönemi Türkiye ekonomisinde sektörel bazda enerji kaynakları arasında bir olası yakınsama ilişkisinin olup olmadığı, var ise bu ilişkinin fosil mi yoksa yenilenebilir kaynaklar yoluyla mı gerçekleştiği ampirik olarak test edilmektedir. Panel TAR (Threshold Autoregressive Model-Eşik Otoregresif Model) veri analiz bulguları; ilgili sektörler arasında doğrusal model altında bir yakınsama ilişkisi olmadığına, ancak farklı formlara sahip iki rejim altında kısmi bir yakınsama ilişkisi olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Buna ek olarak gerçekleştirilen çoklu yapısal kırılmalı Lumsdaine-Papell birim kök analiz bulguları ise bu kısmi yakınsamanın ilgili sektörlerde kullanılan fosil yakıtlar aracılığıyla gerçekleştiğini göstermektedir. Sektörler içerisinde sınırlı kullanım alanı bulunması nedeniyle yenilenebilir kaynakların hiçbir sektörde yakınsama göstermiyor oluşu, yenilenebilir (temiz) enerjiye yönelmeyi amaçlayan Türkiye’nin uyguladığı politikaların ve teşviklerin uygulamada yetersiz kaldığının bir göstergesi olarak değerlendirilmektedir.

Keywords

• Enerji Kullanımı
• Sektör-Kaynak Analizi
• Yakınsama Analizi
• Panel TAR Veri Analizi
• Lumsdaine-Papell Çoklu Kırılmalı Birim Kök Testi

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