OECD Ülkeleri Örnekleminde Kamu Harcamaları ve Makroekonomik Performans İlişkisi

Abstract

İktisat yazınında maliye politikalarının etkinliği çokça tartışılan bir konudur. Klasik teori kamu kesiminin özel sektörü dışlayacağını savunurken, Keynesyen teori talep yetersizliği sorununun çözümü için kamu harcamalarının artırılmasını önermektedir. Literatürde kamu harcamalarının işsizlik ve büyüme gibi ekonominin makroekonomik performansının göstergesi kabul edilen büyüklüklerle ilişkisini inceleyen çok sayıda çalışma vardır. Ancak bu göstergelerin tek başına bir ekonominin performansının göstergesi olmadığı da sıklıkla dile getirilmektedir. Bu nedenle makroekonomik performansın ölçülmesi adına yeni göstergeler geliştirilmektedir. Bu çalışmada 2002-2019 döneminde 28 OECD ülkesi için kamu harcamaları ve makroekonomik performans arasındaki ilişki panel veri analizi ile incelenmiştir. Analizde makroekonomik performans göstergesi olarak Barro Endeksi kullanılmıştır. Panel veri analizinde uygun modelin seçiminde F testi, LM testi ve Hausman testi uygulanmıştır. Söz konusu testler sonucunda sabit etkiler modeli uygun model olarak belirlenmiştir. Daha sonra temel varsayımların sınanmasında uygulanan testler sonucunda regresyon analizi için uygun olan Driscoll-Kraay standart hata tahmincisi testi kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre kamu harcamalarındaki artış ülkelerin makroekonomik performansını olumlu etkilemektedir.

Keywords

• Kamu Harcamaları
• Makroekonomik Performans
• Panel Veri Analizi

The Relationship of Public Expenditure and Macroeconomic Performance in the Sample of OECD Countries

Abstract

The effectiveness of fiscal policies is a widely debated issue in the economics literature. While the classical theory argues that government expenditures crowd out the private sector, the Keynesian theory proposes to increase government expenditures to solve the problem of demand insufficiency. Many previous studies examine the relationship between government expenditures and macroeconomic performance indicators, such as unemployment and growth. However, it is frequently stated that these indicators are not alone an indicator of the performance of an economy. Therefore, new indicators are being developed to measure macroeconomic performance behalf. This study investigates the relationship between expenditures and macroeconomic performance over the period 2002-2019 by applying panel data analysis in 28 OECD countries. The Barro Index is used as a macroeconomic performance indicator. F test, LM test, and Hausman test were applied to select the model. As a result of these tests, the fixed effects model was determined as the model. After testing the basic assumptions, the Driscoll-Kraay standard error estimator was used as a method. According to the results, an increase in government expenditures positively affects the macroeconomic performance of countries.

Keywords

• Government Expenditures
• Macroeconomic Performance
• Panel Data Analysis

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