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2008 Krizi ve İşsizliğe Etkisi Üzerine Bir Uygulama: N-11 Ülkeleri

Year 2018, Volume: 3 Issue: 2, 195 - 207, 11.09.2018
https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.401255

Abstract

Küresel
finansal kriz tüm dünya ekonomilerini olumsuz etkilemiştir. 2008’de meydana
gelen küresel finansal kriz nedeniyle sadece ekonomik sistem olumsuz
etkilenmemiş, aynı zamanda sosyal ve kültürel hayatta da son derece yıkıcı
etkiler oluştuğu gözlemlenmiştir. Bu çalışmada büyük durgunluğa neden olan
küresel finansal krizin işsizlik üzerine etkileri ve büyük durgunluk döneminden
sonra işsizlik histerisi etkisi araştırılmıştır. Bu
çalışmanın amacı gelecekte dünya ekonomisinde önemli bir paya sahip olacağı
düşünülen N-11 ülkelerinde büyük durgunluk öncesi ve sonrası işsizlik
oranlarındaki değişimi incelemektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda Bangladeş, Mısır,
Endonezya, İran, Güney Kore, Meksika, Pakistan, Nijerya, Filipinler, Vietnam ve
Türkiye’nin de aralarında bulunduğu onbir ülke için 1991-2017 yılları işsizlik
verileri kullanılarak Kırılmalı Genişletilmiş Dickey Fuller (ADF) testi
yapılmıştır. Araştırmada uygulanan testler sonucunda İran, Pakistan, Filipinler
ve Nijerya’nın işsizlik oranlarının durağan olduğu, söz konusu ülkeler için
büyük durgunluktan sonra işsizlik oranlarındaki artışın kalıcı etkisini
koruduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Bangladeş, Meksika ve Güney Kore’nin işsizlik
oranlarının ise durağan olmadığı, serilerin birim kök içerdiği tespit
edilmiştir.

References

  • Bakas, D., Paragiotidis, T., & Pelloni, G. (2016). On the significance of labour real-location for European unemployment: Evidence from a panel of 15 countries. Journal of Empirical Finance, 39(B), 229-240. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2016.05.003
  • Bertola, G. (2017). European unemployment revisited: Shock, institutions integration. Research in Economics, 71(3), 588-612. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rie.2017.06.002
  • Bhattrai, K. (2016). Unemployment-inflation trade off in OECD countries. Economic Modelling, 58, 93-103. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.05.007
  • Bianco, S. D., Bruno, R. L., & Signorelli, M. (2015). The joint impact of labour policies and the “Great Recession” on unemployment in Europe. Economic Systems, 39(1), 3-26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2014.06.002
  • Boeri, T., & Jimeno, J. F. (2016). Learning from the great divergence in unemployment in Europe during the crisis. Labour Economics, 41, 32-46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016 /j.labeco.2016.05.022
  • Caggiano, G., Castelnuova, E., & Groshenny, N. (2014). Uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics in U.S recessions. Journal of Monetary Economics, 67, 78-92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2014.07.006
  • Casares, M., Moreno A., & Vazquez, J. (2014). An estimated New-Keynesian model with unemployment as excess supply of labour. Journal of Macroeconomics, 40, 338-359. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2014.01.010
  • Chai, S., & Loungani, P. (2015). Uncertainty and unemployment: The effects of aggregate and sectoral channels. Journal of Macroeconomics, 46, 344-358. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2015.10.007
  • Cheng, K. M., Durmaz, N., & Stern, M. L. (2012). Hysteresis vs. natural of U.S unemployment. Economic Modelling, 29(2), 428-434. doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2011.11.012
  • Cuestas, J. C., Gil-Alana, L. A., & Staehr, K. (2011). A further investigation of unemployment persistence in European transition economies. Journal of Comparative Economics, 39(4), 514-532. doi: 10.1016/j.jce.2011.09.002
  • Dolado, J. J., & Jimeno, J. F. (1997). The causes of Spanish unemployment: A structural VAR approach. European Economic Review, 41(7), 1281-1307. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/S0014-2921(97)00058-5
  • Donayre, L., & Panovska, I. (2017). U.S wage growth and nonlinearities: The roles of inflation and unemployment. Economic Modelling, 68, 273-292. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.07.019
  • Ferrara, L., Marcellino, M., & Mogliani, M. (2015). Macroeconomic forecasting during The Great Recession: The return of nonlinearity. International Journal of Forecasting, 31(3), 664-679. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.11.005
  • Ghoshray, A., Ordonez, J., & Sala, H. (2016). Euro, crisis and unemployment: Youth patterns, youth policies?. Economic Modelling, 58, 442-453. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/ j.econmod.2016.05.017
  • Gorcia-Cintado, A., Avila, D. R., & Usabiaga, C. (2015). Can the hysteresis in Spanish regional unemployment be beaten? New evidence from unit root tests with breaks. Economic Modelling, 47, 244-252. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.02.035
  • Grant, A. L. (2017). The Great Recession and Okun’s Law. Economic Modelling, 69, 291-300. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.10.002
  • Güloğlu, B. ve İspir, M. S. (2011). Doğal İşsizlik Oranı Mı? İşsizlik Histerisi Mi? Türkiye İçin Sektörel Panel Birim Kök Sınaması Analizi. Ege Akademik Bakış, 11(2), 205-215. Erişim adresi: http://www.onlinedergi.com/eab/
  • Holmes, M. J., Otero, J., & Panagiotidis, T. (2013). Modelling the behaviour of unemployment rates in the U.S over time and across space. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 392(22), 5711-5722. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2013.07.023
  • Lee, C. C., & Chang, C. P. (2008). Unemployment hysteresis in OECD countries: Centurial time series evidence with structural breaks. Economic Modelling, 25(2), 312-325. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2007.06.002
  • Lee, C. F., Hu, T. C, Li, P. C., & Tsong, C. C. (2013). Asymmetric behaviour of unemployment rates: Evidence from the quantile covariate unit root test. Japan and the World Economy, 28, 72-84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2013.08.002
  • Lipsey, R. G. (1960). The relation between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates: A further analysis. Economica, 27(105), 1-31. doi: 10.2307/2551424
  • Louis, R. J., & Balli, F. (2013). Low-inflation-targeting monetary policy and differential unemployment rate: Is monetary policy to be blamed for the financial crisis? Evidence from major OECD countries. Economic Modelling, 30, 546-564. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.09.042
  • Marques, A. M., Lima, G. T., & Troster, V. (2017). Unemployment persistence in OECD countries after the great recession. Economic Modelling, 64, 105-106. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.03.014
  • Mondschean, T., & Oppenheimer, M. (2011). Regional long-term and short-term unemployment and education in transition: The case of Poland. The Journal of Econometrics Asymmetries, 8(2), 23-47. https://doi.org /10.1016/j.jeca.2011.02.004
  • Song, F. M., & Mu, Y. (1998). Hysteresis in unemployment: Evidence from OECD countries. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 38(2), 181-192. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1062-9769(99)80111-2
  • Parent, D. (2015). Performance pay and unemployment during the great recession. Economics Letter, 126, 31-34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2014.11.011
  • Phillips, A. W. (1958). The relation between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates in the United Kingdom 1861-1957. Economica, 25(100), 283-299. doi: 10.2307/2550759
  • Pissarides, C. A. (2013). Unemployment in The Great Recession. Economica, 80, 385-403. doi:10.1111/ecca.12026
  • Watson, P., & Deller, S. (2017). Economic diversity, unemployment and The Great Recession. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 64, 1-11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2016.12.003
  • Yılancı, V. (2009). Yapısal kırılmalar altında Türkiye için işsizlik histerisinin sınanması. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 10(2) , 324-335.
  • http://databank.worldbank.org/data/home.aspx

An Application on the Impact of 2008 Crisis and Unemployment: N-11 Countries

Year 2018, Volume: 3 Issue: 2, 195 - 207, 11.09.2018
https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.401255

Abstract

The
global financial crisis has adversely affected all world economies. Due to the
global financial crisis that took place in 2008, not only did the economic
system not be adversely affected, but at the same time it was observed to have
had extremely devastating effects on social and culturel life. The effects of
the global financial crisis on the Unemployment and the unemployment hysteria
effect after the great recession were investigated in this study. The aim of
this study is to examine the change in before and after
the great Recession were unemployment rates in the N-11 countries, which are
expected to have a significant share in the world economy in the future. For
this purpose Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, South Korea, Mexico, Pakistan,
Nigeria, Philippines, Vietnam and Turkey among them  found found to be broken using the 1991-2017
year of Unemployment data for eleven countries Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF)
test was applied. As a result of the carried out in the research, it has been
found that the Unemployment rates of Iran, Pakistan, Philippines and Nigeria
are stable and that the increase in Unemployment rates after the great
Recession for countries has a lasting effect. Bangladesh,
Mexico and South Korea have Unemployment rates that are not stationary, and
that the series contain unit roots.

References

  • Bakas, D., Paragiotidis, T., & Pelloni, G. (2016). On the significance of labour real-location for European unemployment: Evidence from a panel of 15 countries. Journal of Empirical Finance, 39(B), 229-240. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2016.05.003
  • Bertola, G. (2017). European unemployment revisited: Shock, institutions integration. Research in Economics, 71(3), 588-612. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rie.2017.06.002
  • Bhattrai, K. (2016). Unemployment-inflation trade off in OECD countries. Economic Modelling, 58, 93-103. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.05.007
  • Bianco, S. D., Bruno, R. L., & Signorelli, M. (2015). The joint impact of labour policies and the “Great Recession” on unemployment in Europe. Economic Systems, 39(1), 3-26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2014.06.002
  • Boeri, T., & Jimeno, J. F. (2016). Learning from the great divergence in unemployment in Europe during the crisis. Labour Economics, 41, 32-46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016 /j.labeco.2016.05.022
  • Caggiano, G., Castelnuova, E., & Groshenny, N. (2014). Uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics in U.S recessions. Journal of Monetary Economics, 67, 78-92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2014.07.006
  • Casares, M., Moreno A., & Vazquez, J. (2014). An estimated New-Keynesian model with unemployment as excess supply of labour. Journal of Macroeconomics, 40, 338-359. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2014.01.010
  • Chai, S., & Loungani, P. (2015). Uncertainty and unemployment: The effects of aggregate and sectoral channels. Journal of Macroeconomics, 46, 344-358. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2015.10.007
  • Cheng, K. M., Durmaz, N., & Stern, M. L. (2012). Hysteresis vs. natural of U.S unemployment. Economic Modelling, 29(2), 428-434. doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2011.11.012
  • Cuestas, J. C., Gil-Alana, L. A., & Staehr, K. (2011). A further investigation of unemployment persistence in European transition economies. Journal of Comparative Economics, 39(4), 514-532. doi: 10.1016/j.jce.2011.09.002
  • Dolado, J. J., & Jimeno, J. F. (1997). The causes of Spanish unemployment: A structural VAR approach. European Economic Review, 41(7), 1281-1307. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/S0014-2921(97)00058-5
  • Donayre, L., & Panovska, I. (2017). U.S wage growth and nonlinearities: The roles of inflation and unemployment. Economic Modelling, 68, 273-292. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.07.019
  • Ferrara, L., Marcellino, M., & Mogliani, M. (2015). Macroeconomic forecasting during The Great Recession: The return of nonlinearity. International Journal of Forecasting, 31(3), 664-679. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.11.005
  • Ghoshray, A., Ordonez, J., & Sala, H. (2016). Euro, crisis and unemployment: Youth patterns, youth policies?. Economic Modelling, 58, 442-453. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/ j.econmod.2016.05.017
  • Gorcia-Cintado, A., Avila, D. R., & Usabiaga, C. (2015). Can the hysteresis in Spanish regional unemployment be beaten? New evidence from unit root tests with breaks. Economic Modelling, 47, 244-252. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.02.035
  • Grant, A. L. (2017). The Great Recession and Okun’s Law. Economic Modelling, 69, 291-300. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.10.002
  • Güloğlu, B. ve İspir, M. S. (2011). Doğal İşsizlik Oranı Mı? İşsizlik Histerisi Mi? Türkiye İçin Sektörel Panel Birim Kök Sınaması Analizi. Ege Akademik Bakış, 11(2), 205-215. Erişim adresi: http://www.onlinedergi.com/eab/
  • Holmes, M. J., Otero, J., & Panagiotidis, T. (2013). Modelling the behaviour of unemployment rates in the U.S over time and across space. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 392(22), 5711-5722. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2013.07.023
  • Lee, C. C., & Chang, C. P. (2008). Unemployment hysteresis in OECD countries: Centurial time series evidence with structural breaks. Economic Modelling, 25(2), 312-325. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2007.06.002
  • Lee, C. F., Hu, T. C, Li, P. C., & Tsong, C. C. (2013). Asymmetric behaviour of unemployment rates: Evidence from the quantile covariate unit root test. Japan and the World Economy, 28, 72-84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2013.08.002
  • Lipsey, R. G. (1960). The relation between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates: A further analysis. Economica, 27(105), 1-31. doi: 10.2307/2551424
  • Louis, R. J., & Balli, F. (2013). Low-inflation-targeting monetary policy and differential unemployment rate: Is monetary policy to be blamed for the financial crisis? Evidence from major OECD countries. Economic Modelling, 30, 546-564. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.09.042
  • Marques, A. M., Lima, G. T., & Troster, V. (2017). Unemployment persistence in OECD countries after the great recession. Economic Modelling, 64, 105-106. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.03.014
  • Mondschean, T., & Oppenheimer, M. (2011). Regional long-term and short-term unemployment and education in transition: The case of Poland. The Journal of Econometrics Asymmetries, 8(2), 23-47. https://doi.org /10.1016/j.jeca.2011.02.004
  • Song, F. M., & Mu, Y. (1998). Hysteresis in unemployment: Evidence from OECD countries. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 38(2), 181-192. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1062-9769(99)80111-2
  • Parent, D. (2015). Performance pay and unemployment during the great recession. Economics Letter, 126, 31-34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2014.11.011
  • Phillips, A. W. (1958). The relation between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates in the United Kingdom 1861-1957. Economica, 25(100), 283-299. doi: 10.2307/2550759
  • Pissarides, C. A. (2013). Unemployment in The Great Recession. Economica, 80, 385-403. doi:10.1111/ecca.12026
  • Watson, P., & Deller, S. (2017). Economic diversity, unemployment and The Great Recession. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 64, 1-11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2016.12.003
  • Yılancı, V. (2009). Yapısal kırılmalar altında Türkiye için işsizlik histerisinin sınanması. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 10(2) , 324-335.
  • http://databank.worldbank.org/data/home.aspx
There are 31 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics, Business Administration
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Tuğba Koyuncu

Publication Date September 11, 2018
Acceptance Date September 5, 2018
Published in Issue Year 2018 Volume: 3 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Koyuncu, T. (2018). 2008 Krizi ve İşsizliğe Etkisi Üzerine Bir Uygulama: N-11 Ülkeleri. Ekonomi Politika Ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 3(2), 195-207. https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.401255