2008 Krizi ve İşsizliğe Etkisi Üzerine Bir Uygulama: N-11 Ülkeleri

Year 2018, Volume: 3 Issue: 2, 195 - 207, 11.09.2018

Tuğba Koyuncu

https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.401255

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Küresel
finansal kriz tüm dünya ekonomilerini olumsuz etkilemiştir. 2008’de meydana
gelen küresel finansal kriz nedeniyle sadece ekonomik sistem olumsuz
etkilenmemiş, aynı zamanda sosyal ve kültürel hayatta da son derece yıkıcı
etkiler oluştuğu gözlemlenmiştir. Bu çalışmada büyük durgunluğa neden olan
küresel finansal krizin işsizlik üzerine etkileri ve büyük durgunluk döneminden
sonra işsizlik histerisi etkisi araştırılmıştır. Bu
çalışmanın amacı gelecekte dünya ekonomisinde önemli bir paya sahip olacağı
düşünülen N-11 ülkelerinde büyük durgunluk öncesi ve sonrası işsizlik
oranlarındaki değişimi incelemektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda Bangladeş, Mısır,
Endonezya, İran, Güney Kore, Meksika, Pakistan, Nijerya, Filipinler, Vietnam ve
Türkiye’nin de aralarında bulunduğu onbir ülke için 1991-2017 yılları işsizlik
verileri kullanılarak Kırılmalı Genişletilmiş Dickey Fuller (ADF) testi
yapılmıştır. Araştırmada uygulanan testler sonucunda İran, Pakistan, Filipinler
ve Nijerya’nın işsizlik oranlarının durağan olduğu, söz konusu ülkeler için
büyük durgunluktan sonra işsizlik oranlarındaki artışın kalıcı etkisini
koruduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Bangladeş, Meksika ve Güney Kore’nin işsizlik
oranlarının ise durağan olmadığı, serilerin birim kök içerdiği tespit
edilmiştir.

Keywords

Büyük Durgunluk, Kırılmalı Birim Kök Testi, İşsizlik, 2008 Krizi

An Application on the Impact of 2008 Crisis and Unemployment: N-11 Countries

Abstract

The
global financial crisis has adversely affected all world economies. Due to the
global financial crisis that took place in 2008, not only did the economic
system not be adversely affected, but at the same time it was observed to have
had extremely devastating effects on social and culturel life. The effects of
the global financial crisis on the Unemployment and the unemployment hysteria
effect after the great recession were investigated in this study. The aim of
this study is to examine the change in before and after
the great Recession were unemployment rates in the N-11 countries, which are
expected to have a significant share in the world economy in the future. For
this purpose Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, South Korea, Mexico, Pakistan,
Nigeria, Philippines, Vietnam and Turkey among them  found found to be broken using the 1991-2017
year of Unemployment data for eleven countries Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF)
test was applied. As a result of the carried out in the research, it has been
found that the Unemployment rates of Iran, Pakistan, Philippines and Nigeria
are stable and that the increase in Unemployment rates after the great
Recession for countries has a lasting effect. Bangladesh,
Mexico and South Korea have Unemployment rates that are not stationary, and
that the series contain unit roots.

Keywords

Great Recession, Break Unit Root Test, Unemployment, 2008 Crisis

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