The Effect of Covid-19 Crisis on Oil Prices

Year 2021, Volume: 6 Issue: 3, 710 - 727, 30.12.2021

Ayhan Kuloğlu

https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.996706

Cited By: 4

Abstract

The pandemic, which emerged in Wuhan, China in December 2019, has deeply affected the economies of countries at the global level. This study aims to investigate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on oil prices. The model is built on two separate periods as the shock period (23 January 2020- 31 December 2020) and the vaccination period (4 January 2021- 31 August 2021). The study was developed on the basis of Salisu, Ebuh and Usman’s (2020) study examining the causality relationship between oil prices and stock returns in the pre- and post-pandemic period of Covid-19. In the study, Johansen Cointegration test was applied using oil prices (LOIL), global daily confirmed Covid-19 case numbers (LCOV) and US dollar index (LDXY) variables. It has been seen that the series have unit roots and are cointegrated in the long run. FMOLS and CCR tests were applied to determine the degree and direction of the long-term effect among the variables. In conclusion, the effect of the pandemic on oil prices seems to have a more moderate negative effect in the vaccination period compared to the shock period. Countries should accelerate their vaccination efforts to reduce the effects of the pandemic.

Keywords

Covid-19, Oil Price, Dollar Index

Covıd-19 Krizinin Petrol Fiyatları Üzerine Etkisi

Abstract

Çin’in Wuhan şehrinde Aralık 2019’da ortaya çıkan pandemi küresel düzeyde ülkelerin ekonomilerini derinden etkilemiştir. Bu çalışma, Covid-19 pandemisinin petrol fiyatları üzerine etkisini araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Model, şok dönemi (23 Ocak 2020- 31 Aralık 2020) ve aşılama dönemi (4 Ocak 2021- 31 Ağustos 2021) olarak iki ayrı dönem üzerinde kurgulanmıştır. Çalışma, Salisu, Ebuh ve Usman’nın (2020) Covid-19’un pandemi ilanı öncesi ve sonrası dönemde petrol fiyatları ile hisse senedi getirileri arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini inceleyen çalışması temel alınarak geliştirilmiştir. Çalışmada petrol fiyatları (LOIL), küresel günlük teyit edilmiş Covid-19 vaka sayıları (LCOV) ve ABD dolar endeksi (LDXY) değişenleri kullanılarak Johansen Eşbütünleşme testi uygulanmıştır. Serilerin birim köke sahip olduğu ve uzun dönemde eşbütünleşik olduğu görülmüştür. Değişkenler arasında uzun dönem etkinin derecesi ve yönünü belirlemek için FMOLS ve CCR testleri uygulanmıştır. Sonuç olarak, pandeminin petrol fiyatlarına etkisi aşılama döneminde şok dönemine kıyasla daha ılımlı negatif etkiye sahip olduğu görülmektedir. Ülkeler pandeminin etkilerini azaltmak için aşılama çalışmalarına hız vermelidirler.

Keywords

Covid-19, Petrol Fiyatları, Dolar Endeksi

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