Finansal Kapsayıcılık, Hane Halkı Tüketimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Bağlantının İncelenmesi: 3SLS Yaklaşımı

Year 2024, Volume: 9 Issue: 1, 1 - 25, 29.03.2024

İbrahim Ekmen , Yalçın Karatepe

https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1433921

Abstract

Finans ve ekonomi ilişkisi kalkınma literatüründe uzun zamandan beri tartışma konusu olmuştur. Kimi araştırmacılar finansın basitçe ekonomik gelişmeyi takip ettiğini ifade ederken, kimileri finansın ekonomik büyümenin en önemli belirleyicilerinden birisi olduğunu ifade etmişlerdir. Yapılan araştırmaların sonuçları, ülkeden ülkeye, araştırma dönemine, kullanılan verilerin içeriğine ve araştırma yönteme göre farklılık göstermektedir. Öte yandan, ekonomik büyüme ve finansal kapsayıcılık ilişkisi literatürde çok uzak geçmişe sahip olmayan bir inceleme alanıdır. Finansal kapsayıcılık konusunun önceliği, yetişkin her bireyin finansal kuruluşlara ve finansal ürünlere erişebilmesi ve bunları uygun bir maliyetle kullanabilmesidir. Bu çerçevede, finansal ürünlere erişim finansal vatandaşlık kavramı çerçevesinde ele alınmaktadır. Bu çalışma, dijital bankacılık ve finansal kapsayıcılığın ekonomik büyüme ve hane halkı tüketimi üzerindeki etkisini Türkiye örneği açısından incelenmiştir. Bu amaçla öncelikle dijital bankacılık ve finansal kapsayıcılık endeksleri oluşturulmuş ve bu endeksler ile GSYİH Endeksi ve Yerleşik Hane Halkı Tüketim Endeksi arasındaki ilişki üç aşamalı en küçük kareler (3SLS) yöntemi ve iki farklı denklem seti ile analiz edilmiştir. Sonuçlar, dijital bankacılığın ve finansal kapsayıcılığın, ekonomik büyüme ve hane halkı tüketimi üzerinde pozitif etkisi olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

Finansal Kapsayıcılık Endeksi, Dijital Bankacılık Endeksi, Ekonomik Büyüme, Dijital Finansal Kapsayıcılık, 3SLS, Hane Halkı Tüketimi, Sabit Sermaye Harcaması

Examining the Nexus of Financial Inclusion, Household Consumption, and Economic Growth: A 3SLS Approach

Abstract

The relationship between finance and economy is a long-standing debate in the development literature. While some researchers argue that finance simply follows economic development, others argue that finance is a critical determinant of economic growth. Research findings on this issue vary across countries, periods, data sets, and research methodologies. On the other hand, the relationship between economic growth and financial inclusion is a relatively new area of study in the academic literature. The primary goal of financial inclusion is to ensure that everyone can access and use financial products at an affordable cost. In this context, access to and use of financial products is seen in the context of financial citizenship. This paper examines the impact of digital banking and financial inclusion on economic growth and household consumption in Turkey. For this purpose, financial inclusion and digital banking indices have been constructed. Furthermore, the relationship of these indices with the GDP index and household consumption index is examined using the three-stage least square (3SLS) method with two separate equations. The results show that digital banking and financial inclusion have a positive impact on economic growth and household consumption in Turkey.

Keywords

Financial Inclusion Index, Digital Banking Index, Economic Growth, Digital Financial Inclusion, 3SLS, Household Consumption, Capital Expenditure

References

• Adeoye, B.W. and Alenoghena, R.O. (2019). Internet usage, financial inclusion and economic growth in Nigeria. Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, 19(2), 2-12. Retrieved from https://doaj.org/
• AFI. (2013a). Measuring financial inclusion core set of financial inclusion indicators [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://www.afi-global.org/wp-content/uploads/publications/afi%20fidwg%20report.pdf
• AFI. (2013b). Defining and measuring financial inclusion. In T. Triki and I. Faye (Eds.), Financial inclusion in Africa (pp. 31-42). Tunisia: African Development Bank.
• Ali, N., Fatima, K. and Ahmed, J. (2019). Impact of financial inclusion on economic growth in Pakistan. Journal of Managerial Sciences, 13(3), 166-174. Retrieved from https://journals.qurtuba.edu.pk/
• Allen, F., Demirguc-Kunt, A., Klapper, L. and Peria, M.S.M. (2016). The foundations of financial inclusion: Understanding ownership and use of formal accounts. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 27, 1- 30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2015.12.003
• Amidzic, G., Massara, M.A. and Mialou, A. (2014). Assessing countries’ financial inclusion standing - A new composite index (International Monetary Fund Working Paper No. 14/36). Retrieved from https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/001-overview.xml
• Andrianaivo, M. and Kpodar, K. (2011). ICT, financial inclusion, and growth: Evidence from African countries. Retrieved from https://www.afdb.org/pt/documents/document/aec-2010-ict-financial-inclusion-and-growth-evidence-from-african-countries-21771
• Atkinson, A. and Messy, F.A. (2013). Promoting financial inclusion through financial education: OECD/INFE evidence, policies and practice (OECD Working Papers on Finance, Insurance and Private Pensions No. 34). https://doi.org/10.1787/5k3xz6m88smp-en
• Avcı, B.S. (2022). Financial inclusion and economic growth: An analysis for Turkey. KMU Journal of Social and Economic Research, 24(42), 241-254. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/kmusekad
• Bagehot, W. (1873). Lombard Street: A description of the money market. London: HS King.
• Beck, T., Demirguc-Kunt, A. and Peria, M.S.M. (2007). Reaching out: Access to and use of banking services across countries. Journal of Financial Economics, 85(1), 234-266. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2006.07.002
• Bekçioğlu, S., Kaderli, Y. and Varlık, B. (2018). BİST 100 endeksinin spektral analiz yöntemiyle incelenmesi. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, 78, 87-110. https://doi.org/10.25095/mufad.412530
• Bozkurt, I. and Karakus, R. (2020). Finansal içerme-ekonomik gelişmişlik ilişkisi: Dünya geneli için ampirik bir inceleme. Third Sector Social Economic Review, 55(3), 1504-1523. https://doi.org/10.15659/3.sektor-sosyal-ekonomi.20.06.1357
• Cámara, N. and Tuesta, D. (2014). Measuring financial inclusion: A muldimensional index (BBVA Working Paper No. 14/26). Retrieved from https://www.bbvaresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/WP14-26_Financial-Inclusion.pdf
• CGAP. (2012). Better data can mean better decisions for financial inclusion. Retrieved from https://www.cgap.org/blog/better-data-can-mean-better-decisions-for-financial-inclusion
• Choong, C.K., and Chan, S.G. (2011). Financial development and economic growth: A review. African Journal of Business Management, 5(6), 2017-2027. https://doi.org/10.5897/AJBM10.772
• Çonkar, M.K., and Vergili, G. (2017). Kredi temerrüt swapları ile döviz kurları arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye için ampirik bir analiz. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 10(4), 59-66. https://doi.org/10.38057/bifd.1213894
• Demirgüç-Kunt, A. and Klapper, L. (2013). Measuring financial inclusion: Explaining variation in use of financial services across and within countries. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2013(1), 279-340. https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2013.0002
• Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Klapper, L., Singer, D. and Ansar, S. (2021). The global findex database 2021: Financial inclusion, digital payments, and resilience in the age of COVID-19. Washington, DC: World Bank.
• Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Klapper, L.F., Singer, D. and Van Oudheusden, P. (2015). The global findex database 2014: Measuring financial inclusion around the world (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 7255). Retrieved from https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/187761468179367706/pdf/%20WPS7255.pdf
• Demirgüç-Kunt, A. and Levine, R. (2008). Finance and economic opportunity. Washington, DC: World Bank.
• Devi, S.K.D. (2015). Promoting financial inclusion in rural areas through co-operative banks: With special reference to DCCB, Paderu agency. International Journal of Research in Commerce, Economics and Management, 5(1), 85-88. Retrieved from https://ijrcms.com/
• Ekmen, İ. (2023a). Finansal kapsama ve internet bankacılığının ekonomik büyüme ve hane halkı tüketimine etkisi Türkiye örneği (Yayımlanmamış doktora tezi). Ankara Üniversitesi, Ankara.
• Ekmen, İ. (2023b). Internet banking index as a measure of digital financial inclusion in banking. Journal of Human Sciences, 20(1), 1-15. Retrieved from https://www.j-humansciences.com
• Enders, W. (2004). Applied econometric time series (2. ed.). New York: University of Alabama.
• European Comission. (2008). Financial services provision and the prevention of financial exclusion report. Retrieved from https://www.bristol.ac.uk
• Goldsmith, R.W. (1969). Financial structure and development. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
• Görmüş, Ş. and Hotunluoğlu, H. (2011). Demokrasinin Türkiye’nin ihracat ve ithalatı üzerine etkisi. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 24(4), 99-111. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/trendbusecon
• Gujarati, D.N. (2004). Applied econometrics. Singapore: Mc. Graw-Hill International Editions.
• Gurley, J.G. and Shaw, E.S. (1955). Financial aspects of economic development. The American Economic Review, 45(4), 515-538. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org
• Hicks, J.R. (1969). A theory of economic history. Oxford: Clarendon Press.
• Hill, R. (2011). Hedonic price indexes for housing (OECD Working Paper No. 01). Retrieved from https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/hedonic-price-indexes-for-housing_5kghzxpt6g6f-en
• Hillebrand, E. and Koray, F. (2008). Interest rate volatility and home mortgage loans. Applied Economics, 40(18), 2381-2385. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840600949538/
• Honohan, P. (2008). Cross-country variation in household access to financial services. Journal of Banking & Finance, 32(11), 2493-2500. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2008.05.004
• Hsiao, C. (1997a). Cointegration and dynamic simultaneous equations model. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 65(3), 647-670. https://doi.org/10.2307/2171757/
• Hsiao, C. (1997b). Statistical properties of the two-stage least squares estimator under cointegration. The Review of Economic Studies, 64(3), 385-398. https://doi.org/10.2307/2971719/
• Huang, Y. (2010). Determinants of financial development. Berlin: Springer Nature.
• İçellioğlu, C.Ş. and Öztürk, M.B.E. (2018). Bitcoin ile seçili döviz kurları arasındaki ilişkinin araştırılması: 2013-2017 dönemi için Johansen testi ve Granger nedensellik testi. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, 109, 51-70. https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.343217
• Kainth, G.S. (2013). Developing an index of financial inclusion. Anvesha, 6(2), 1-10. Retrieved from https://www.proquest.com/
• Kaya, B. (2017). Türkiye’de finansal erişim ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik analizi. Düşünce Dünyasında Türkiz, 44, 139-167. Retrieved from https://www.tasav.org/
• Kempson, E., Crame, M. and Finney, A. (2007). Financial services provision and prevention of financial exclusion (Eurobarometer Report, August 2007). Retrieved from https://www.bristol.ac.uk/media- library/sites/geography/migrated/documents/pfrc0808.pdf
• Kempson, H.E. and Whyley, C.M. (1999). Understanding and combating financial exclusion. Insurance Trends, 21, 18-22. Retrieved from https://www.bristol.ac.uk/
• Khera, P., Ogawa, M.S. and Sahay, M.R. (2021). Is digital financial inclusion unlocking growth? (IMF Working Papers No. 167). Retrieved from https://0-www-elibrary-imf- org.library.svsu.edu/view/journals/001/2021/167/001.2021.issue-167-en.xml
• King, R.G. and Levine, R. (1993). Finance, entrepreneurship and growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), 513-542. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(93)90028-E
• Koç, İ. (2018). Interest rate risk in interest-free banks: An empirical research on Turkish participation banks. Turkish Journal of Islamic Economics, 5(1), 89-108. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/beuntujise
• Koç, İ., Bumin, M. and Demir, Y. (2021). Piyasa volatilitesinin konut kredi hacmine etkisi: Türk bankacılık sektörüne ilişkin bir uygulama. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 13(25), 608-622. https://doi.org/10.14784/marufacd.976616
• Levine, R. (2005). Finance and growth: Theory and evidence. In P. Aghion and S.N. Durlauf (Eds.), Handbook of Economic Growth (Volume 1, Part A) (pp. 865-934). https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0684(05)01012-9/
• Leyshon, A., and Thrift, N. (1995). Geographies of financial exclusion: Financial abandonment in Britain and the United States. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 20(3), 312-341. https://doi.org/10.2307/622654
• Li, Y., Wang, M., Liao, G. and Wang, J. (2022). Spatial spillover effect and threshold effect of digital financial inclusion on farmers’ income growth - Based on provincial data of China. Sustainability, 14(3), 1838. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14031838
• Loukoianova, E., Yang, Y., Guo, S., Hunter, L., Jahan, S., Jamaludin, F., … Wu, Y. (2018). Financial Inclusion in Asia-Pacific. International Monetary Fund (IMF Departmental Paper No. 18/17). Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Departmental-Papers-Policy-Papers/Issues/2018/09/18/Financial-Inclusion-in-Asia-Pacific-46115
• Mutlugün, B. (2014). The relationship between financial development and economic growth for Turkey. Journal of Economic Policy Researches, 1(2), 85-115. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/iuipad
• Robinson, J. (1952). The model of an expanding economy. The Economic Journal, 62(245), 42-53. https://doi.org/10.2307/2227172
• Sahay, M.R., Cihak, M., N'Diaye, M.P., Barajas, M.A., Mitra, M.S., Kyobe, … Yousefi, M.R. (2015). Financial inclusion: Can it meet multiple macroeconomic goals? (IMF Staff Discussion Note No. 15/17). Retrieved from https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/006/006-overview.xml
• Sarma, M. (2012). Index of financial inclusion–A measure of financial sector inclusiveness (Berlin Working Papers on Money, Finance, Trade and Development No. 07/2012). Retrieved from https://finance-and-trade.htw-berlin.de/fileadmin/HTW/Forschung/Money_Finance_Trade_Development/working_paper_series/wp_07_2012_Sarma_Index-of-Financial-Inclusion.pdf
• Sethy, S.K. (2016). Developing a financial inclusion index and inclusive growth in India. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 23(2), 607. Retrieved from https://www.ectap.ro/
• Sharma, D. (2016). Nexus between financial inclusion and economic growth: Evidence from the emerging Indian economy. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 8(1), 13-36. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFEP-01-2015-0004
• Shen, Y., Hu, W. and Hueng, C.J. (2018). The effects of financial literacy, digital financial product usage and internet usage on financial inclusion in China. Paper presented at the 2018 3rd International Conference on Circuits and Systems. Lisbon, Portugal. Retrieved from https://www.matec-conferences.org/articles/matecconf/abs/2018/87/matecconf_cas2018_05012/matecconf_cas2018_05012.html
• Solow, R.M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65-94. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884513
• Solow, R.M. (1957). Technical change and the aggregate production function. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 39(3), 312-320. https://doi.org/10.2307/1926047
• Soukiazis, E., Antunes, M. and Kostakis, I. (2018). The Greek economy under the twin-deficit pressure: A demand orientated growth approach. International Review of Applied Economics, 32(2), 215-236. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2017.1338678
• Soukiazis, E., Cerqueira, P.A. and Antunes, M. (2013). Growth rates constrained by internal and external imbalances and the role of relative prices: Empirical evidence from Portugal. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 36(2), 275-298. https://doi.org/10.2753/PKE0160-3477360205
• Thathsarani, U.S., Wei, J. and Samaraweera, G. (2021). Financial inclusion’s role in economic growth and human capital in South Asia: An econometric approach. Sustainability, 13(8), 4303. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13084303
• Thrift, N. and Leyshon, A. (1999). Moral geographies of money. Nation-states and money: The Past, present and future of national currencies. London: Routledge.
• Torun, N. (2015). Birim kök testlerinin performanslarının karşılaştırılması (Yayınlanmamış doktora tezi). İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İstanbul.
• World Bank. (2013). Global financial development report 2014: Financial inclusion (WB 82556). Retrieved from https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/225251468330270218/pdf/Global-financial-development-report-2014-financial-inclusion.pdf
• World Bank. (2016). Global financial development report 2016 (World Bank). Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/gfdr/gfdr-2016
• Yavuzaslan, K., Damar, Ö., Sönmez, B., Özdaş, B., Uyar N., Akılotu, E. (2017). Türkiye’de genç işsizliğinin, işsizlik histerisi hipotezi çerçevesinde yapısal kırılmalar testi ile analizi. Aydın İktisat Fakültesi Dergisi, 2(2), 21-32. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/aifd/
• Yurdakul, F. (2000). Yapısal kırılmaların varlığı durumunda geliştirilen birim-kök testleri. Gazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 2(2), 21-34. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/gaziuiibfd/