Ticari Açıklık Enerji Güvenliğini Etkiler mi? Türkiye’den Ampirik Bulgular

Year 2025, Volume: 10 Issue: 1, 44 - 57, 28.03.2025

Cem Gökce , Erdal Demirhan

https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1581224

Abstract

Açıklık, ulusal ekonomiler için avantajlı ve dezavantajlı durumlar yaratabilir. Açıklığın enerji güvenliği üzerindeki etkileri, özellikle fosil kaynaklara bağımlı ülkelerde, politika yapıcılar için hayati öneme sahiptir. Bu çalışma, ticari açıklık ile enerji güvenliği arasındaki bağlantıyı belirlemeyi ve ticaret açıklığının Türkiye ekonomisi için enerji güvenliğinin belirleyicilerinden biri olduğunu kanıtlamayı amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmada, zaman serisi analizine dayalı eşbütünleşme analizi kullanılarak uzun vadeli analiz yapılmıştır. Türkiye'nin 1980-2018 dönemine ait yıllık verileri kullanılmıştır. Ampirik bulgular, kullanılan değişkenler arasında uzun vadeli bir ilişkiye işaret etmektedir. Tahmin sonuçlarına göre, ticari açıklık enerji güvenliği riskini arttırmaktadır. Bu sonuç, ölçek etkisi nedeniyle artan ticari açıklığın enerji güvenliği riskini artırdığını göstermektedir. Türkiye için açıklık ile enerji güvenliği arasındaki ilişkide ölçek etkisi ve bileşik etkinin baskın olduğu söylenebilir. Çalışmanın ampirik sonuçlarından görüleceği üzere, Türkiye'de ticari açıklık ile enerji güvenliği arasında hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde önemli bir ilişki mevcuttur. Bu çerçevede politika yapıcıların enerji politikaları ve ticaret politikalarını eşanlı ve birbirini gözeterek yürütmesi önem arz etmektedir.

Keywords

Enerji Güvenliği, Ticari Açıklık, Enerji Politikaları, Ticaret Politikaları

Does Trade Openness Affect Energy Security? Empirical Evidence from Türkiye

Abstract

Trade openness can create advantageous and disadvantageous situations for national economies. The impacts of trade openness on energy security are also crucial for policymakers, especially in countries dependent on fossil resources. This study aims to identify the link between trade openness and energy security and to prove that trade openness is one of the determinants of energy security for the Turkish economy. In the study, long-run analysis was carried out using cointegration analysis based on time series analysis. We used Türkiye's annual data for the period 1980-2018. Empirical findings point to a long-run relationship between the variables. According to the estimation results, trade openness increases the energy security risk. This result shows that increasing trade openness increases energy security risk due to the scale effect. We can say that the scale and composition effects dominate the relationship between openness and energy security for Türkiye. As can be seen from the study's empirical results, there is a significant relationship between trade openness and energy security in Türkiye, both in the short and long run. In this context, policymakers need to implement energy policies and trade policies simultaneously and with consideration for each other.

Keywords

Energy Security, Trade Openness, Energy Policy, Trade Policy

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