Evaluation of Electricity Consumption in Turkey via Cubic Regression Analysis and One Way Anova Test

Abstract

In the globalizing world, the importance of energy is increasing day by day. Countries can make investment plans within the analysis of production and consumption data for electrical energy. In this study, sectoral electricity consumption data (State Agency, Industrial Enterprise, Business, Residence, Agricultural Irrigation, Street Lighting) in Turkey were analyzed with statistical techniques. Using the sectoral data between 2000 and 2020, the consumption data for the next 5 years was estimated via Cubic Regression Analysis. The success of the Cubic Regression models was evaluated with the success criteria of MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error), RMSE (Square Root Mean Errors), and R2 (Coefficient of Determination). In addition, the OneWay ANOVA technique was used in the study to make sector comparisons for electricity consumption data. It was investigated whether there was a significant difference between the averages of the sector groups, the suitability of variance was examined and the Tamhane T2 test, one of the Pairwise Comparison Tests (Post Hoc), was used. As a result, in this study, electricity consumption data was analyzed with different statistical techniques, and information was produced for both current and future periods.

Keywords

• Cubic regression analysis
• Electricity consumption
• Forecasting