Economic Impacts of Expected Istanbul Earthquake: Scenario Generation

Abstract

It is difficult to make precise estimations about the time, location, and magnitude of earthquakes which can cause significant consequences such as massive casualties and economic losses. Although the earthquakes cannot be prevented, minimization of losses can be achieved with effective disaster management. In this study, four most likely scenarios that are put forward by the geological engineers and scientists are evaluated to illustrate the potential impacts of a possible earthquake. Therefore, effects of an earthquake on physical damage, sectoral growth and post-earthquake government expenditures, tax revenues, investments, imports, and exports are numerically estimated. Additionally, since Istanbul has an intense economic relations and workforce flow beyond its borders, it is evaluated as a whole with Kocaeli and Tekirdağ provinces. The impact of the earthquake is privatized on the basis of Istanbul, Kocaeli and Tekirdağ districts. Considering the location of the fault lines and length of breaks, it is thought that different districts would be affected by the earthquake in different degrees, and impacts of scenarios are created in this direction. Damage rates in different districts due to different magnitudes are predicted by taking 17 August 1999 Izmit Bay Earthquake as a basis. As a result of this study, the damage rates of the building stock and industrial facilities, number of casualties, sectoral and expenditure change rates in the districts of Istanbul, Tekirdağ and Kocaeli are determined. In addition, the change rates in physical, sectoral, and expenditure areas are also reflected on the rest of Türkiye. Thus, the results obtained from the scenarios will help to generate certain policy strategies after the earthquake and contribute to reducing economic, social, and physical damage.

Keywords

• Natural disaster
• Earthquake
• Scenario analysis
• Disaster economics
• Loss estimation

References

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