Estimation of Red Meat Production in Turkey according to the Grey-Markov Chain Model

Abstract

Today, due to the place and importance of red meat in terms of nutrition and public health, meeting the reliable supply of red meat to meet the demand has become one of the most important issues. The production source of red meat in Turkey is cattle, sheep, goat and buffalo. Although Turkey is a rich country in terms of different species and breeds and animal potential, the yield per unit animal is low. Most of the meat is consumed fresh in Turkey. With the increasing importance of meeting the reliable red meat supply, the necessity of following the sector has emerged. Accurate estimation of red meat production in Turkey is important for establishing short, medium and long-term policies that will balance supply and demand. In this study, Grey-Markov chain model, which is a combination of Markov chains method and Grey estimation model, which can be used to predict future data with very limited data and information, was used in the estimation of red meat production. The obtained results show that the Grey-Markov chain model used has high predictive precision and applicability.

Keywords

• Grey estimation model
• Markov chain
• Meat production

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