Telafi ve Etkinlik Hipotezi: Rals Eş-Bütünleşme ve Bootstrap Nedesenllik Testleri ile Türkiye İçin Yeni Kanıtlar

Year 2021, Volume: 35 Issue: 4, 1518 - 1533, 17.12.2021

Zerrin Kılıçarslan Cüneyt Dumrul Yasemin Dumrul

https://doi.org/10.48070/erciyesakademi.1013147

Abstract

Dışa açıklık ve küreselleşme ile birlikte ülkelerin karşılaştıkları risk ve belirsizlikler de artmaktadır. Kamu harcaması, söz konusu risklerin etkilerini en aza indirmek amacıyla kullanılan önemli politika araçlarından biridir. Dışa açıklık ve küreselleşmeye bağlı olarak ortaya çıkan kamu harcama artış ve azalışları literatürde telafi ve etkinlik hipotezleri çerçevesinde incelenmektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de etkinlik ve telafi hipotezinin geçerliliği 1970-2018 dönemi yıllık verileri ile RALS eş-bütünleşme ve bootstrap nedensellik testleriyle incelenmiştir. Analiz sonuçları ticari açıklıktaki artışın kamu harcamalarını negatif etkilediğini ifade eden etkinlik hipotezini ve küreselleşmedeki artışın kamu harcamalarını artırdığını ifade eden telafi hipotezini desteklemektedir. Ayrıca bootstrap nedensellik testi sonucuna göre ticari açıklıktan kamu harcamalarına doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmaktadır.

Keywords

Hükümet büyüklüğü, Küreselleşme, Ticari açıklık, RALS Eş-bütünleşme testi, Bootstrap nedensellik testi

The Compensation and Efficiency Hypotheses: New Evidence for Turkey With Rals Cointegration and Bootstrap Causality Tests

Abstract

Along with openness and globalization, the risks and uncertainties faced by countries are also increasing. Government expenditures are one of the important policy tools used to minimize the effects of these risks. Increases and decreases in government expenditures due to openness and globalization are examined in the literature within the framework of compensation and efficiency hypotheses. In this study, the validity of Turkey's compensation and efficiency hypotheses was examined using annual data for the period 1970-2018 and RALS co-integration and bootstrap causality tests. In the analyzes, it is estimated whether both trade openness and globalization affect government expenditures. In the study, results have been reached to support the efficiency hypothesis, which states that the increase in trade openness negatively affects government expenditures. The compensation hypothesis states that the increase in globalization increases government expenditures. In addition, according to the results of the bootstrap causality test, it was found that there is a one-way causality relationship from trade openness to government expenditures.

Keywords

Globalization, Government size, Globalization, Trade openness, RALS co-integration test, Bootstrap causality test

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