THE ECONOMIC GROWTH EFFECT OF PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN G-7 COUNTRIES WITH PANEL CANTILE REGRESSION APPROACH

Year 2023, Volume: 37 Issue: 1, 225 - 241, 29.03.2023

Fatih Volkan Ayyıldız

https://doi.org/10.48070/erciyesakademi.1224679

Abstract

After the Industrial Revolution, the worldwide increasing need for raw materials showed its reflection in the dimension of primary energy consumption. This has made primary energy consumption an important determinant in economic activities. Therefore, questioning the relationship between economic growth and primary energy consumption has a special importance in ensuring sustainable economic growth and development, which is one of the main common goals of countries. In this context, the aim of this study is to measure the effect of primary energy consumption on economic growth in the period of 1990-2021 in the sample of G-7 countries, which have 30.7% of the global capital as of 2021. For the purpose, panel quantile regression analysis was performed, Spearman's rank correlation test, Shapiro-Wilk W, Skewness/Kurtosis and Jarque-Bera normality tests and Hausman test were performed, respectively. Durbin-Watson / Baltagi-Wu autocorrelation tests and Breusch-Pagan / Cook-Weisberg varying variance tests were performed to determine whether there were autocorrelation and varying variance problems between panel quantile regression models calculated in the 10th-90th different quantile range. Since there are variance and autocorrelation problems between different quantile models, the model is estimated at the 50th quantile level with robust standard errors to solve these problems. As a result of the estimation of the model with robust standard errors using the panel quantile regression approach, it was found that a 1% increase in primary energy consumption in the G-7 countries during the 1990-2021 period increased the economic growth by approximately 2.29% at the 5% significance level.

Keywords

Economic growth, Primary energy consumption, Panel quantile regression analysis, G-7 countries

PANEL KANTİL REGRESYON YAKLAŞIMIYLA G-7 ÜLKELERİNDE BİRİNCİL ENERJİ TÜKETİMİNİN İKTİSADİ BÜYÜMEYE ETKİSİ

Abstract

Sanayi Devrimi sonrasında dünya çapında artan hammadde ihtiyacı yansımasını birincil enerji tüketimi boyutuyla göstermiştir. Bu durum birincil enerji tüketimin iktisadi faaliyetlerde önemli bir belirleyici olmasını sağlamıştır. Dolayısıyla, ülkelerin temel ortak hedeflerinden biri olan sürdürülebilir iktisadi büyüme ve kalkınmayı sağlamada iktisadi büyüme-birincil enerji tüketimi ilişkisinin sorgulanması ayrı bir öneme sahiptir. Bu bağlamda, bu çalışmanın amacı küresel sermayenin 2021 yılı itibariyle %30,7’sine sahip olan G-7 ülkeleri örnekleminde 1990-2021 döneminde birincil enerji tüketiminin iktisadi büyümeye etkisini ölçmektir. Amaç doğrultusunda panel kantil regresyon analizi yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın analiz kısmında sırasıyla Spearman sıralama korelasyon testi, Shapiro-Wilk W, Skewness/Kurtosis ve Jarque-Bera normallik sınamaları ve Hausman testi yapılmıştır. 10th-90th farklı kantil aralığında hesaplanan panel kantil regresyon modelleri arasında otokorelasyon ve değişen varyans sorunlarının olup olmadığına dair Durbin-Watson / Baltagi-Wu otokorelasyon testleri ve Breusch-Pagan / Cook-Weisberg değişen varyans testleri yapılmıştır. Farklı kantil modelleri arasında değişen varyans ve otokorelasyon sorunlarının olmasından ötürü bu sorunların çözümü için model robust (dirençli) standart hatalarla 50th kantil düzeyinde tahmin edilmiştir. Modelin panel kantil regresyon yaklaşımıyla robust (dirençli) standart hatalarla tahmini sonucunda %5 anlamlılık düzeyinde G-7 ülkelerinde 1990-2021 döneminde birincil enerji tüketiminde meydana gelen %1’lik bir artışın iktisadi büyümeyi yaklaşık olarak %2,29 oranında artırdığı bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır.

Keywords

İktisadi büyüme, Birincil enerji tüketimi, Panel kantil regresyon analizi, G-7 ülkeleri

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