WATER SECURITY AND REGIONAL STABILITY IN CENTRAL ASIA: THE CASE OF UZBEKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN

Abstract

The Amu Darya River, a critical water resource for Central Asia, frequently becomes a focal point of tensions between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. Recent discussions regarding the Amu Darya have been reignited following the construction of a canal by the Taliban administration in 2023. This research delves into the water-related issues between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan, with a particular emphasis on the significance of the Amu Darya River to the countries in the region. Adopting a historical perspective, this study systematically examines official reports, bilateral and multilateral agreements, and existing literature through comparative analysis. The findings suggest that cooperation and consensus at the bilateral level are paramount, overshadowing the contributions of regional and international organizations in resolving this issue.

Keywords

• Amu Darya River
• Uzbekistan
• Afghanistan
• Water scarcity
• Transboundary waters
• Constructivism
• Cooperation.

References

1. Abdullayev, Iskandar, Ekaterina Strikeleva and Shavkat Rakhmatullayev (2020). Water Sector Development in Central Asia and Afghanistan: Status Review and Development Options. Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia (CAREC) and sponsored by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).
2. Abilgazina, Aizhan, Jeremy Cohen and Allan Mustard (2020). The Vital Resource: Water Management in Central Asia. Washington: Caspian Policy Center. Retrieved from https://api.caspianpolicy.org/media/uploads/2020/11/The-Vital-Resource-Water-Management-in-Central-Asia-01.pdf. Accessed: 12.02.2024.
3. Ahmad, Masood and Mahwash Wasiq (2004). Water Resources Development in Northern Afghanistan and Its Implications for Amu Darya Basin. World Bank Working Paper No. 36, World Bank, Washington DC.
4. Ahn, Young-Jin and Zuhriddin Juraev (2023). Water Scarcity in Central Asia: Case of Uzbekistan and Neighboring Countries [Preprint]. Social Sciences. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202307.1153.v1. Accessed: 12.02.2024.
5. Ahn, Young-Jin, Zuhriddin Juraev and Alisher Gofurov (2023). Regional Water Crisis: A Case Study of Uzbekistan and its Neighboring Countries [Preprint]. Social Sciences. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202306.1710.v1
6. Alliance4water.org (2023). Managing Afghanistan’s Water Crisis for Economic Resilience. Alliance for Global Water Adoptation. Retrieved from https://www.alliance4water.org/wr4er-cases/managing-afghanistans-water-crisis-for-economic-resilience. Accessed: 12.02.2024.
7. Allouche, Jeremy (2020). “Nationalism, Legitimacy and Hegemony in Transboundary Water Interactions”. Water Alternatives, 13(2): 286–301.
8. Astana Times (2023). Kazakh President outlines priorities for resolving water ıssues, Aral Sea Crisis. Retrieved from https://astanatimes.com/2023/09/kazakh-president-outlines-priorities-for-resolving-water-issues-aral-sea-crisis/. Accessed: 12.02.2024.

9. Aydin-Kandemir, Fulya and Dursun Yildiz (2022). “Assessment of Growing Water and Food Security Crises in Afghanistan”. International Journal of Water Management and Diplomacy, 2022(5): 5–27.
10. Dadabaev, Timur, Jenniver Sehring and Nigora Djalilova (2023). “Central Asian Water Neighbourhood: A Constructivist Reconceptualisation of Hydropolitics in Central Asia”. Water Alternatives, 16(3): 930–948.
11. Caneecca.org (2023). The water crisis in Central Asia – how to find solutions? Climate Action Network. Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia (EECCA). Retrieved from https://caneecca.org/en/the-water-crisis-in-central-asia-how-tofind-solutions/ Accessed: 14.02.2024.
12. Central.asia-news.com (2023). Uzbekistan eyes new solutions for impending water crisis. Caravanserai. Retrieved from https://central.asia-news.com/en_GB/articles/cnmi_ca/features/ 2023/ 05/30/feature-01. Accessed: 15.02.2024.
13. Dehgan, Alex, Laura Jean Palmer-Moloney and Mehdi Mirzaee (2014). “Water Security and Scarcity: Potential Destabilization in Western Afghanistan and Iranian Sistanand Baluchestan Due to Transboundary Water Conflicts”. In Water and post-conflict peacebuilding, pp. 323-344. Routledge.
14. Eurasianet.org (2023). Central Asian rivers levels poised for dramatic plunge, forcing urgent measures. Retrieved from https://eurasianet.org/central-asianriver-levels-poised-for-dramatic-plunge-forcing-urgent-measures. Accessed: 12.02.2024.
15. Farahmand, Mohiden (2023). “Water Policy Analysis: Republican and Taliban Periods”. IEEE-SEM, 11(8): 81-110.
16. Furlong, Kathryn (2010). “Neoliberal Water Management: Trends, Limitations, Reformulations”. Environment and Society, 1(1): 46-75. https://doi: 10.3167/ares.2010.010103
17. Gafarli, Samir (2023). Navigating water conflict in Central Asia: the Amu Darya river and the Qosha Tepa Canal project. Retrieved from https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/08/24/navigating-water-conflict-in-central-asia-the-amu-darya-river-and-the-qosha-tepa-canal-project/. Accessed: 18.02.2024.
18. Guo, Lidan, Haiwei Zhou, Ziqiang Xia and Feng Huang (2016). “Evolution, opportunity and challenges of transboundary water and energy problems in Central Asia”. Springer Plus, 5(1): 1918. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40064-016-3616-0
19. Hamidov, Ahmad, Katharina Helming and Dagmar Balla (2016). “Impact of Agricultural Land Use in Central Asia: A Review”. Agronomy for Sustainable Development, 36(1): 6. https://doi: https://10.1007/s13593-015-0337-7
20. Hayat, Shakeel (2020). Inclusive Development and Multilevel Transboundary Water Governance: The Kabul River. 1st ed. London: CRC Press.
21. Hurd, Ian (2008). “Constructivism” in The Oxford Handbook of International Relations (Eds. Christian Reus-Smit and Duncan Snidal). Oxford University Press. doi: https://10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199219322.003.0017
22. Imamova, N. (2022). Uzbekistan, Central Asia try to redefine Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Retrieved from https://www.voanews.com/a/uzbekistan-central-asia-try-to-redefine-shanghai-cooperation-organization/6751857.html. Accessed: 18.02.2024.
23. Ipcinfo.org (2022). Afghanistan: Nearly 20 million Afghans experiencing high acute food insecurity. Retrieved from https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/resources/resources-details/en/c/1155598/. Accessed: 18.02.2024.
24. Ita.gov (2023). Uzbekistan – Country commercial guide. International Trade Administration. Retrieved from https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/uzbekistan-agricultural-sectors#:~:text=Overview,26%25%20of%20the%20labor%20force. Accessed: 18.02.2024.
25. Izteleuova, Elena (2022). Problema Afganistana v povestkah dnja Uzbekistana I Kazahstana [The problem of Afghanistan is on the agendas of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan]. Central Asian Bureau for Analytical Reporting. Retrieved from https://cabar.asia/ru/problema-afganistana-v-povestkah-dnya-uzbekistana-i-kazahstana. Accessed: 18.02.2024.
26. Jafarova, Nigar (2023). The water crises in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Retrieved from https://frontierview.com/insights/the-water-crises-in-central-asiaand-the-caucasus/. Accessed: 08.03.2024.
27. Jalilov, S.-M., Varis, O., and Keskinen, M. (2015). Sharing Benefits in Transboundary Rivers: An Experimental Case Study of Central Asian Water-Energy-Agriculture Nexus. Water, 7(12): 4778–4805. https://doi.org/10.3390/w7094778
28. Janusz-Pawletta, B., and Gubaidullina, M. (2015). Transboundary Water Management in Central Asia. Legal Framework to Strengthen Interstate Cooperation and Increase Regional Security. L’eau en Asie centrale, 195-215.
29. Janusz-Pawletta, Barbara (2015). “Current Legal Challenges to Institutional Governance of Transboundary Water Resources in Central Asia and Joint Management Arrangements”. Environmental Earth Sciences, 73(2): 887–896. doi: https://doi:10.1007/s12665-014-3471-7
30. Janusz-Pawletta, Barbara (2018). “Legal Framework of Interstate Cooperation on Water Resources of Central Asia”, in Water Resources in Central Asia: International Context. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-11205-9
31. Karthe, Daniel, Sergey Chalov and Dietrich Borchardt (2015). “Water Resources and Their Management in Central Asia in the Early Twenty First Century: Status, Challenges and Future Prospects”. Environmental Earth Sciences, 73(2): 487–499. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-014-3789-1
32. Kohistani, Shamali Madina (2022). SCO Council starts in Tashkent, situation in Afghanistan discussed. Retrieved from https://tolonews.com/afghanistan-179170. Accessed: 18.02.2024.
33. Kulenbekov, Zheenbek and Baktyiar Asanov (Eds.). (2021). Water Resource Management in Central Asia and Afghanistan: Current and Future Environmental and Water Issues. Springer Nature.
34. Kun.uz (2022). Water scarcity in Uzbekistan: Probable drought and escalating environmental challenges. Retrieved from https://kun.uz/en/news/2022/08/10/water-scarcity-in-uzbekistan-probable-drought-and-escalating-environmental-challenges. Accessed: 18.02.2024.
35. Kun.uz (2023). O’zbekiston-Afg’oniston munosabatlari haqida ekspertlar bilan intervyu [Interview with experts about Uzbekistan-Afghanistan relations]. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FFtUfZR19w. Accessed: 18.02.2024.
36. Kursiv.media (2023). President Tokayev warns about risk of droughts in Central Asia. Retrieved from https://kz.kursiv.media/en/2023-09-15/president-tokayevwarns-about-risk-of-droughts-in-central-asia/. Accessed: 18.02.2024.
37. Kuzmits, Bernd (2006). Cross-bordering water management in Central Asia. Working Paper 66, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10419/88309. Accessed: 10.03.2024.
38. Leao, Izabela, Mansur Ahmed and Anuja Kar (2018). Jobs from Agriculture in Afghanistan. Washington: World Bank.
39. Libert, Bo and Annukka Lipponen (2012). “Challenges and Opportunities for Transboundary Water Cooperation in Central Asia: Findings from UNECE’s Regional Assessment and Project Work. International Journal of Water Resources Development, 28(3): 565-576.
40. Libert, Bo (2018). Application of the UNECE Environmental Convention in Central Asia. Water Resources. In Central Asia: International Context (Ed.: Zhiltsov, Sergey, Igor S. Zonn, Andrey G. Kostianoy and Aleksandr V. Semenov) Water Resources in Central Asia: International Context (Vol. 85). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-11205-9
41. Lillis, Joanna (2012). Uzbekistan leader warns of water wars in Central Asia. Retrieved from https://eurasianet.org/uzbekistan-leader-warns-of-water-warsin-central-asia. Accessed: 18.02.2024.
42. Lillis, Joanna (2023). Uzbekistan resumes operations on Afghanistan railroad after dispute. Retrieved from https://eurasianet.org/uzbekistan-resumes-operations-on-afghanistan-railroad-after-dispute. Accessed: 18.02.2024.
43. McKinney, Daene C. (2003). Cooperative Management of Transboundary Water Resources in Central Asia. In Burghartand, Dan and Theresa Sabonis-Helf (Eds.), In the Tracks of Tamerlane-Central Asia’s Path into the 21st Century. National Defense University Press.
44. McKinney, Daene C. (2004). Cooperativemanagement of transboundarywaterresources in Central Asia. In the Tracks of Tamerlane: Central Asia’s Pathtothe 21st Century, pp. 187-220. Washington, DC: National Defense University,
45. Mirumachi, Naho (2015). Transboundary Water Politics in the Developing World. Routledge.
46. Mukhammadiev, Bakhtiyor (2014). Challenges of Transboundary Water Resources Management in Central Asia. In Philip Micklin, Nikolai V. Aladin and Igor Plotnikov (Eds.), The Aral Sea, pp. 233–251. Springer Berlin Heidelberg. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-02356-9_9
47. Nori, Saiyed Momin (2020). “Challenges of Transboundary Water Governance in Afghanistan”. Central Asian Journal of Water Research, 6(1): 18–38. doi: https://doi.org/10.29258
48. OSCE (2023). Impact of the Afghan crisis on the environment, water and energy in Central Asian regions bordering Afghanistan. Recommendations for the OSCE (49). Retrieved from https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/5/f/547007.pdf Accessed: 18.02.2024.
49. Pikulicka-Wilczewska, Agnieszka (2019). War, drought, diplomatic rifts deepen Afghanistan’s water crisis. Retrieved from https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2019/5/5/war-drought-diplomatic-rifts-deepen-afghanistans-water-crisis. Accessed: 18.02.2024.
50. Peña-Ramos, José Antonio, Philipp Bagus and Daria Fursova (2021). “Water Conflicts in Central Asia: Some Recommendations on the Non-Conflictual Use of Water”. Sustainability 13(6): 3479. https://doi:10.3390/su13063479
51. Pravilova, Ekaterina (2009). “River of Empire: Geopolitics, Irrigation, and the Amu Darya in the Late XIXth Century”. Cahiers d’Asie centrale, 17/18: 255-287.
52. Quie, Marissa (2014). “The Istanbul Process: Prospects For Regional Connectivity in the Heart of Asia”. Asia Europe Journal, 12(3): 285–300.
53. Reus–Smit, Christian (2002). “Imagining society: constructivism and the English School”. The British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 4(3): 487-509.
54. Roberts, Flora J. (2022). “Rival Eco-Anxieties: Legacy of Soviet Water Management in the Syr Darya Basin”. Security and Human Rights, 2022: 1-12. doi: https://10.1163/18750230-bja10011
55. Shabad, Theodore (1982). Soviet builds bridge quikly on the Afghan border. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/1982/05/23/world/soviet-builds-bridgequickly-on-the-afghan-border.html. Accessed: 18.02.2024.
56. Sheng, Jichuan and Michael Webber (2021). “Incentive Coordination for Transboundary Water Pollution Control: The Case of the Middle Route of China’s South-North Water Transfer Project”. Journal of Hydrology, 598: 125705. doi: https://doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125705
57. Silvan, Kristiina (2020). Uzbekistan’s new Central Asia policy the economic rationale and political implications of good neighbourliness. Finnish Institute of International Affairs.
58. Soliev, Ilkhom and Insa Theesfeld (2020). “Benefit Sharing for Solving Transboundary Commons Dilemma in Central Asia”. International Journal of the Commons, 14(1): 61–77. https://doi.org/10.5334/ijc.955
59. Statistics Agency under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan (2021). Share of agriculture, forestry and fisheries in GDP. Retrieved from https://www.stat.uz/en/press-center/news-of-committee/11325-qishloq-o-rmon-vabaliqchilik-xo-jaligining-yaimdagi-ulushi-3. Accessed: 18.02.2024.
60. Szalkai, Kinga (2012). A Constructivist Approach to Conflict and Cooperation over Trans-Boundary Waters. Masters of Arts Thesis, Centras European University, Budapest, Hungary.
61. Thomas, Vincent (2016). Developing transboundary water resources: What perspectives for cooperation between Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan? European Commission.
62. Tolipov, Farkhod (2018). The Tashkent conference on Afghanistan: Too much diplomacy, too little solution. Retrieved from The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst. Retrieved from https://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/13521-the-tashkent-conference-on-afghanistan-too-much-diplomacy-too-little-solution.html. Accessed: 18.02.2024.
63. Umarova, Nigora (2023). Tragedy of Aral Sea: Health and environmental impacts. Retrieved from https://daryo.uz/en/2023/08/04/tragedy-of-aral-sea-health-and-environmental-impacts. Accessed: 18.02.2024.
64. UNEP (2009). UNEP in Afghanistan. Laying the foundations for sustainable development. United Nations Environment Programme.
65. UNDP (2024). United Natons World Water Development Report 2024, Water for Prosperity and Peace. Retrieved from https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000388948. Accessed: 02.04.2024.
66. UNICEF (2022). United Nations Children’s Fund, Afghanistan: Wash on the Brink. Retrieved from https://www.unicef.org/media/118356/file/%20UNICEF%20Afghanistan%20WASH%20on%20the%20Brink%202022.pdf. Accessed: 18.02.2024.
67. Un-ihe.org (2023). Two years after Taliban takeover, Afghanistan’s worsening water crisis is a regional security threat. Institute for Water Education under the auspices of UNESCO. Retrieved from https://www.un-ihe.org/two-years-after-taliban-takeover-afghanistans-worsening-water-crisis-regional-security-threat. Accessed: 13.02.2024.
68. Usembassy.gov (2020). USAID Rehabilitates Yomonjar Canal to Improve Water Management, U.S.Embassy in Uzbekistan. Retrieved from canal-to-improve-water-management/. Accessed: 16.02.2024.
69. Uzbekov, Umidkhon, Bakhtiyor Pulatov, Bokhir Alikhanov and Alim Pulatov (2021). Predicting the impact of future climate change on streamflow in the Ugam River watershed. Retrieved from https://scite.ai/reports/10.2478/geosc-2021-0013. Accessed: 16.02.2024.
70. Wang, Xuanxuan, Yaning Chen, Zhi Li, Gonghuan Fang, Fei Wang and Haichao Hao (2021). “Water Resources Management and Dynamic Changes in Water Politics in the Transboundary River Basins of Central Asia”. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 25(6): 3281-3299.
71. Wendt, Alexander (1999). Social Theory of International Politics. Cambridge University Press.
72. World Bank (2020). Cotton-textile cluster in Uzbekistan: Status and outlook. Policy dialogue on agriculture modernization in Uzbekistan. World Bank Group. Retrieved from https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/305731601271791257/pdf/Policy-Dialogue-on-Agriculture-Modernization-in-Uzbekistan-Cotton-Textile-Clusters-in-Uzbekistan-Status-and-Outlook.pdf. Accessed: 16.02.2024.
73. WRI (2023). 25 Countries, housing one-quarter of the population, face extremely high water stress. World Resources Institute. Retrieved from https://www.wri.org/insights/highest-water-stressed-countries. Accessed: 16.02.2024.
74. Yan, Ziming, Xiaojuan Qiu, Debin Du and Seamus Grimes (2022). “Transboundary Water Cooperation in the Post-Cold War Era: Spatial Patterns and the Role of Proximity”. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(3): 19. doi: https://10.3390/ijerph19031503
75. Yildiz, Dursun (2015). “Afghanistan’s Transboundary Rivers and Regional Security”. World Scientific News, 16: 40-52.
76. Zhiltsov, Sergey S., Igor S. Zonn, Andrey G. Kostianoy and Aleksandr V. Semenov (Eds.). (2018). Water Resources in Central Asia: International Context (Vol. 85). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-11205-9
77. Zhiltsov, Sergey S., Igor S. Zonn, Andrey G. Kostianoy, and Aleksandr V. Semenov (Eds.) (2018). Water Resources in Central Asia: International Context. Vol. 85. Cham: Springer International Publishing.
78. Zonn, Igor S., Aleksandr V. Semenov, Alla V.Nikonorova and Vladimir G. Egorov (2018). Afghanistan water resources policy in Central Asia. Water Resources in Central Asia: International Context. 243-261. Springer.