FISCAL POLICY AND MACROSTABILITY IN KAZAKHSTAN: ASSESSING THE PROCYCLICALITY OF EXPENDITURES

Bakhitzhamal Aidosova; Dariga Khamitova; Saule Tulegenova; Indira Kulakayeva

FISCAL POLICY AND MACROSTABILITY IN KAZAKHSTAN: ASSESSING THE PROCYCLICALITY OF EXPENDITURES

Abstract

Resource-rich countries frequently exhibit fiscal behavior that reinforces economic fluctuations. This article evaluates the procyclicality of Kazakhstan’s public finances and examines whether recent reforms to fiscal rules and transfer arrangements – particularly those related to the National Fund and intergovernmental transfers – have improved the stabilization of expenditures. Drawing on harmonized annual (2000–2024) and quarterly (2002Q1–2024Q4) official data, we estimate the elasticities of revenues and expenditures with respect to the output gap and assess how these relationships evolve around major institutional changes. We find that revenues and expenditures are both procyclical, but the main transmission mechanism operates through the revenue side: revenue elasticities are persistently larger than expenditure elasticities. Episodes of reform coincide with a statistically significant reduction in expenditure sensitivity of roughly 0.08–0.12 percentage points, whereas revenue sensitivity shows little change. Current expenditures display stronger procyclicality than capital expenditures, and subnational budgets exhibit higher cyclicality overall – though this effect is attenuated when transfers follow stable, formula-based rules rather than discretionary supplements.

Keywords

References

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Economic Theory (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Bakhitzhamal Aidosova ^* This is me
0000-0002-0818-9421
Kazakhstan

Dariga Khamitova This is me
0000-0002-2903-9908
Kazakhstan

Saule Tulegenova This is me
0000-0003-0679-3059
Kazakhstan

Indira Kulakayeva This is me
0009-0002-9655-8780
Kazakhstan

Publication Date

January 30, 2026

Submission Date

October 22, 2025

Acceptance Date

January 22, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 8 Number: 1

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA97NL64XZ

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Aidosova, B., Khamitova, D., Tulegenova, S., & Kulakayeva, I. (2026). FISCAL POLICY AND MACROSTABILITY IN KAZAKHSTAN: ASSESSING THE PROCYCLICALITY OF EXPENDITURES. Eurasian Research Journal, 8(1), 79-107. https://izlik.org/JA97NL64XZ

AMA

1.Aidosova B, Khamitova D, Tulegenova S, Kulakayeva I. FISCAL POLICY AND MACROSTABILITY IN KAZAKHSTAN: ASSESSING THE PROCYCLICALITY OF EXPENDITURES. ERJ. 2026;8(1):79-107. https://izlik.org/JA97NL64XZ

Chicago

Aidosova, Bakhitzhamal, Dariga Khamitova, Saule Tulegenova, and Indira Kulakayeva. 2026. “FISCAL POLICY AND MACROSTABILITY IN KAZAKHSTAN: ASSESSING THE PROCYCLICALITY OF EXPENDITURES”. Eurasian Research Journal 8 (1): 79-107. https://izlik.org/JA97NL64XZ.

EndNote

Aidosova B, Khamitova D, Tulegenova S, Kulakayeva I (January 1, 2026) FISCAL POLICY AND MACROSTABILITY IN KAZAKHSTAN: ASSESSING THE PROCYCLICALITY OF EXPENDITURES. Eurasian Research Journal 8 1 79–107.

IEEE

[1]B. Aidosova, D. Khamitova, S. Tulegenova, and I. Kulakayeva, “FISCAL POLICY AND MACROSTABILITY IN KAZAKHSTAN: ASSESSING THE PROCYCLICALITY OF EXPENDITURES”, ERJ, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 79–107, Jan. 2026, [Online]. Available: https://izlik.org/JA97NL64XZ

ISNAD

Aidosova, Bakhitzhamal - Khamitova, Dariga - Tulegenova, Saule - Kulakayeva, Indira. “FISCAL POLICY AND MACROSTABILITY IN KAZAKHSTAN: ASSESSING THE PROCYCLICALITY OF EXPENDITURES”. Eurasian Research Journal 8/1 (January 1, 2026): 79-107. https://izlik.org/JA97NL64XZ.

JAMA

1.Aidosova B, Khamitova D, Tulegenova S, Kulakayeva I. FISCAL POLICY AND MACROSTABILITY IN KAZAKHSTAN: ASSESSING THE PROCYCLICALITY OF EXPENDITURES. ERJ. 2026;8:79–107.

MLA

Aidosova, Bakhitzhamal, et al. “FISCAL POLICY AND MACROSTABILITY IN KAZAKHSTAN: ASSESSING THE PROCYCLICALITY OF EXPENDITURES”. Eurasian Research Journal, vol. 8, no. 1, Jan. 2026, pp. 79-107, https://izlik.org/JA97NL64XZ.

Vancouver

1.Bakhitzhamal Aidosova, Dariga Khamitova, Saule Tulegenova, Indira Kulakayeva. FISCAL POLICY AND MACROSTABILITY IN KAZAKHSTAN: ASSESSING THE PROCYCLICALITY OF EXPENDITURES. ERJ [Internet]. 2026 Jan. 1;8(1):79-107. Available from: https://izlik.org/JA97NL64XZ