Abstract
In this study, the reasons of international capital flows were tried to be analyzed under push and pull factors framework and applications of the theory were imple-mented on Turkish Economy between 1992 and 2010 quarterly. The effects of the explanatory variables of Turkish international capital movements on finance ac-count of balance of payment sheet were examined by SUR model and co integration between variables were checked and error correction model were modeled. Lately, causality between variables was examined.
Keywords
Capital Flows Finance Account Pull and push factors SUR Co integration Error Correction Model
References
- ASLAN, Özgür ve KORAP, H. Levent (2009) “Exogenous Characterisitc Of Short-term Capital Flows: Can They Be Under Control? Evidence From Turkey”, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19504 MPRA paper, 20.09.2010
- BRANA, Sophie and LAHET, Delphine (2009) “Determinants of Capital Inflows into Assia: The Relevance of Contagion Effects as Push Fac- tors”, Emerging Market Review, 11(2010), pp:273-284
- CALVO, Sara and CARMEN, Reinhart (1996) “Capital Flows to Latin America: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7124/1/CONTla.PAP.PDF Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 20.09.2010 Effects?”, World
- CHUHAN, Punam and CLAESSENS, Stijn and MAMINGI, Nlandu (1993) “Equity and Bond Flows to Asia and Latin America, The Role of Glo- bal wds.worldbank.org/servlet/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/1993/07/01/ 000009265_3961005013417/Rendered/PDF/multi0page.pdf World Bank, 20.09.2010 Factors”, http://www- , The
- DEMİR, Murat ve SEVER, Erşan (2009), “Kısa Vadeli Sermaye Hareketle- rinin Nedenleri, Etkileri Ve sermaye Hareketliliğinde Devleti Rolü: Türkiye Üzerine Bir İnceleme”, Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(29), ss: 214-239
- DI GIOVANNI, Julian (2002) “What Drives Capital Flows? The Case of Cross-Border http://escholarship.org/uc/item/7nq6d7wp, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute of Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley, 20.09.2010 and Financial Deepening”,
- ENGLE, Robert F. and GRANGER, W. J. (1987), “Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”, Econometrica, 55(2), pp:251-276
- FRANKEL, Jeffrey A. and OKONGWU, Chudozie (1995) “Liberalized Portfolio Capital Inflows in Emerging Markets: Sterilization, Expecta- tions, and the Incompleteness of Interest Rate Convergence”, http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.8.6770&rep =rep1&type=pdf , International Journal of Finance and Economics, 20.09.2010
- FERNANDEZ-ARIAS, Eduardo (1994) “The New Wave of Private Capital Inflows, http://wwwwds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/IW 3P/IB/1994/06/01/000009265_3970716141040/Rendered/PDF/multi_p age.pdf, The World Bank, International Economics Department, 20.09.2010 Push or Pull”,
- GRANGER, Clive W.J. (1969) “Investigating causal relations by economet- ric models and cross-spectral methods”. Econometrica, 37 (3) August, pp:424-438
- HARRIGAN, Jane and MAVROTAS, Georhe and YUSOP, Zulkornain (2002) “On The Determinants of Capital Flight: A New Approach”, Journal of The Assia Pacific Economy, 7(2), pp: 203-241
- GUJARATI, Damodar N. (2009), “Temel Ekonometri”, Çev: Ü. Şenesen ve G. G. Şenesen, Ayhan Matbaası, İstanbul
- KAR, Muhsin ve TATLISÖZ, Fatma (2008), “Türkiye‟de Doğrudan Yaban- cı Sermaye Hareketlerini Belirleyen Faktörlerin Ekonometrik Analizi”, KMU, İİBF Dergisi, 10(14), ss: 436-458
- KUTLAR, Aziz (2005), “Uygulamalı Ekonometri”, Nobel Yayınları, Anka- ra
- MODY, Ashoka and MURSHID, Antu Panini (2002) “Growing Up With Capital Flows”, http://www.amody.com/pdf/GrowingUp_jie.pdf , IMF Working Paper, 20.09.2010
- MODY, Ashoka and TAYLOR, Mark P. (2004), “International Capital Crunches: The Time Varying Role of Informational Asymmetries”, http://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/3757.html 20.09.2010
- RALHAN, Mukesh (2006) “Determinants of Capital Flows: A Cross- Country http://web.uvic.ca/econ/research/papers/pdfs/ewp0601.pdf, Economet- rics Working Paper, 20.09.2010 Analysis”,
- RODRIGUEZ, Xose A. and PALLAS, Julio (2008) “Determimants of Fore- ign Direct Investment in Spain”, Applied Economics, 40(19), pp: 2443- 2450
- SEBASTIAN, Edwards (1998) “Capital Flows, Real Exchange Rates, and Capital http://www.nber.org/papers/w680, National Bureau of Economic Rese- arch, 20.09.2010 Some Latin American Experiences”,
- TARİ, Recep (2008) “Ekonometri”, Avcı Ofset, İstanbul
- YAVUZ, N. Çil (2005) “Türkiye‟de İhracat ve İktisadi Büyüme Arasında Nedensellik http://iibf.kocaeli.edu.tr/ceko/armaganlar/turanyazgan/38.pdf, Fakültesi Sosyal Siyaset Konferansları, 20.09.2010 Analizi”, İktisat
- www.tcmb.gov.tr, ET: 20.09.2010
- www.federalreserve.gov, ET: 20.09.2010
- www.tuik.gov.tr, ET: 20.09.2010
- www.imkb.gov.tr, ET: 20.09.2010
Abstract
Bu çalışmada uluslararası sermaye hareketlerinin nedenleri, iten ve çeken faktörler taslağı altında incelenmiş ve teorinin uygulaması 1992-2010 yılları arası çeyrek dönemlik verilerle Türkiye Ekonomisi üzerine yapılmıştır. Türkiye uluslararası sermaye hareketlerini açıklayan değişkenlerin ödemeler bilançosu finans hesabı üzerine etkileri, SUR ile tahmin edildikten sonra veriler arasında eş bütünleşme araştırılmış ve hata düzeltme modeli (ECM) uygulanarak, nedensellikler test edil-miştir.
Keywords
Sermaye akımları finans hesabı İten ve çeken faktörler SUR eş bütünleşme hata düzeltme modeli
References
- ASLAN, Özgür ve KORAP, H. Levent (2009) “Exogenous Characterisitc Of Short-term Capital Flows: Can They Be Under Control? Evidence From Turkey”, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19504 MPRA paper, 20.09.2010
- BRANA, Sophie and LAHET, Delphine (2009) “Determinants of Capital Inflows into Assia: The Relevance of Contagion Effects as Push Fac- tors”, Emerging Market Review, 11(2010), pp:273-284
- CALVO, Sara and CARMEN, Reinhart (1996) “Capital Flows to Latin America: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7124/1/CONTla.PAP.PDF Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 20.09.2010 Effects?”, World
- CHUHAN, Punam and CLAESSENS, Stijn and MAMINGI, Nlandu (1993) “Equity and Bond Flows to Asia and Latin America, The Role of Glo- bal wds.worldbank.org/servlet/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/1993/07/01/ 000009265_3961005013417/Rendered/PDF/multi0page.pdf World Bank, 20.09.2010 Factors”, http://www- , The
- DEMİR, Murat ve SEVER, Erşan (2009), “Kısa Vadeli Sermaye Hareketle- rinin Nedenleri, Etkileri Ve sermaye Hareketliliğinde Devleti Rolü: Türkiye Üzerine Bir İnceleme”, Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(29), ss: 214-239
- DI GIOVANNI, Julian (2002) “What Drives Capital Flows? The Case of Cross-Border http://escholarship.org/uc/item/7nq6d7wp, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute of Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley, 20.09.2010 and Financial Deepening”,
- ENGLE, Robert F. and GRANGER, W. J. (1987), “Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”, Econometrica, 55(2), pp:251-276
- FRANKEL, Jeffrey A. and OKONGWU, Chudozie (1995) “Liberalized Portfolio Capital Inflows in Emerging Markets: Sterilization, Expecta- tions, and the Incompleteness of Interest Rate Convergence”, http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.8.6770&rep =rep1&type=pdf , International Journal of Finance and Economics, 20.09.2010
- FERNANDEZ-ARIAS, Eduardo (1994) “The New Wave of Private Capital Inflows, http://wwwwds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/IW 3P/IB/1994/06/01/000009265_3970716141040/Rendered/PDF/multi_p age.pdf, The World Bank, International Economics Department, 20.09.2010 Push or Pull”,
- GRANGER, Clive W.J. (1969) “Investigating causal relations by economet- ric models and cross-spectral methods”. Econometrica, 37 (3) August, pp:424-438
- HARRIGAN, Jane and MAVROTAS, Georhe and YUSOP, Zulkornain (2002) “On The Determinants of Capital Flight: A New Approach”, Journal of The Assia Pacific Economy, 7(2), pp: 203-241
- GUJARATI, Damodar N. (2009), “Temel Ekonometri”, Çev: Ü. Şenesen ve G. G. Şenesen, Ayhan Matbaası, İstanbul
- KAR, Muhsin ve TATLISÖZ, Fatma (2008), “Türkiye‟de Doğrudan Yaban- cı Sermaye Hareketlerini Belirleyen Faktörlerin Ekonometrik Analizi”, KMU, İİBF Dergisi, 10(14), ss: 436-458
- KUTLAR, Aziz (2005), “Uygulamalı Ekonometri”, Nobel Yayınları, Anka- ra
- MODY, Ashoka and MURSHID, Antu Panini (2002) “Growing Up With Capital Flows”, http://www.amody.com/pdf/GrowingUp_jie.pdf , IMF Working Paper, 20.09.2010
- MODY, Ashoka and TAYLOR, Mark P. (2004), “International Capital Crunches: The Time Varying Role of Informational Asymmetries”, http://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/3757.html 20.09.2010
- RALHAN, Mukesh (2006) “Determinants of Capital Flows: A Cross- Country http://web.uvic.ca/econ/research/papers/pdfs/ewp0601.pdf, Economet- rics Working Paper, 20.09.2010 Analysis”,
- RODRIGUEZ, Xose A. and PALLAS, Julio (2008) “Determimants of Fore- ign Direct Investment in Spain”, Applied Economics, 40(19), pp: 2443- 2450
- SEBASTIAN, Edwards (1998) “Capital Flows, Real Exchange Rates, and Capital http://www.nber.org/papers/w680, National Bureau of Economic Rese- arch, 20.09.2010 Some Latin American Experiences”,
- TARİ, Recep (2008) “Ekonometri”, Avcı Ofset, İstanbul
- YAVUZ, N. Çil (2005) “Türkiye‟de İhracat ve İktisadi Büyüme Arasında Nedensellik http://iibf.kocaeli.edu.tr/ceko/armaganlar/turanyazgan/38.pdf, Fakültesi Sosyal Siyaset Konferansları, 20.09.2010 Analizi”, İktisat
- www.tcmb.gov.tr, ET: 20.09.2010
- www.federalreserve.gov, ET: 20.09.2010
- www.tuik.gov.tr, ET: 20.09.2010
- www.imkb.gov.tr, ET: 20.09.2010
Details
| Primary Language | Turkish |
|---|---|
| Journal Section | Articles |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | December 15, 2011 |
| Submission Date | July 7, 2014 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2011 Volume: 4 Issue: 2 |
