APPLICABILITY OF TIME-DEPENDENT SEISMICITY MODEL FOR EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE ALONG THE NORTH ANATOLIAN FAULT ZONE

Year 2019, Volume: 20 Issue: 3, 238 - 251, 26.09.2019

Nilgün Lütfiye Sayıl

https://doi.org/10.18038/estubtda.624363

Abstract

The
applicability of the time-dependent seismicity model was investigated for
earthquakes occurrence along the North Anatolian Fault Zone. This region was
separated into thirteen seismogenic zones by virtue of specific seismological
and geomorphological criteria, and RTIMAP (regional time and magnitude
predictable) model was applied for these zones. The data including in both
instrumental period (Ms ³ 5.5) until the beginning of 2016 and historical
period (Io ³ 9.0 corresponding to Ms ³ 7.0) before 1900 have been used in the study. Interevent times and magnitudes of
mainshocks generated in each zone have predictive properties expressed by the
RTIMAP. For the region considered, the relationship with increasing
slope between the time interval of the events and the magnitude of the
preceding earthquake shows that this model is suitable. On the basis of these equations
and taking into account the formation time and magnitude of the last events in each zone, probabilities to the next main shocks in five decades and the magnitudes
of the next events were estimated.

Keywords

North Anatolian Fault Zone, Time-dependent Seismicity, RTIMAP, Earthquake Occurrence Probability

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