Yıl 2014,
Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 60 - 75, 08.10.2014
Namnso Bassey Udoekanem, James İdemudia Nuhu
Öz
Rent is the economic return to land resources. Key property market participants such as investors and developers often use rental value as an indicator to appraise the viability of their real estate development and investment schemes. On this basis, understanding the nature and basic features of rental movements provides a better comprehension of the dynamics of the commercial property market. This study examined the determinants of commercial property rental growth in Minna, Nigeria. Primary and secondary data were utilized for the study. Primary data obtained for the study include office rental levels and office space data in the study area for the period, 2001-2012. Secondary data obtained for the study are mainly macroeconomic variables in Nigeria for the period, 2001-2012. Appropriate statistical techniques were used for data analysis. The study revealed that real GDP growth and vacancy rate are the major determinants of rental growth in the office property market in the city as they account for about 83% of the variation in office property rents in the commercial property market in the city. Also, Rental index for office properties in Minna using 2001 as the base year indicates progressive upward movement in rental values of office properties in the city within the study period.
Kaynakça
- Archer, W. R. & Ling, D.C. (1997),“The Three Dimensions of Real Estate Markets: Linking Space, Capital and Property Markets”,Journal of Real EstateFinance,fall: 7Barlowe, R. (1986), Land Resource Economics4 th . Ed., New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
- Baum, A. and Crosby, N. (1995),Property Investment Appraisal2 nd . Ed., London: InternationalThomson Business Press.
- Baum, A. and Mackmin, D. (1989),The Income Approach to Property Valuation,3th. Ed., London:Routledge.
- Boon, F.N. and Higgins, D. (2007),“Modelling the Commercial Property Market: An
- EmpiricalStudy of the Singapore Office Market”,Pacific Rim Property Research Journal, 13(2): 176-193. Born, W. L. and Pyhrr, S. A. (1994),“Real Estate Valuation: The Effect of Market and PropertyCycles”,Journal of Real Estate Research, 9(4): 455-486.
- CBN (2010),Statistical Bulletin, Abuja: Central Bank of Nigeria.
- CBN (2012),Quarterly Statistical Bulletin (Q4), Abuja: Central Bank of Nigeria.
- Clapp, J. M. (1993),“Dynamics of Office Markets: Empirical Findings and Research
- Issues”, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association Monograph Series, No.Washington, DC: The Urban Institute Press. Corcoran, P. J. (1987),“Explaining the Commercial Real Estate Market”, Journal of
- Portfolio Management,Spring: 15-21. Corgel, J.B., Smith, H.C. and Ling, D. H. (2000),Real Estate Perspectives: An
- Introduction to Real Estate, 4 th Ed., New York: McGraw-Hill Corgel, J. B. and Gay, G. D. (1987),“Local Economic Base, Geographic
- Diversification, and Risk Management of Mortgage Portfolios”,Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, 15(3):256–67. Crosby, N. (1983),“The Investment Method of Valuation: A Real Value
- Approach”,Journal of Valuation 1: 341-50; 2: 48-59. Crosby, N. (1984),“The Investment Valuation Techniques: The Shape of things to come”, The Valuer, 53(7):196-7.
- Gardiner, C. and Henneberry, J. (1988),“The Development of a Simple Office Rent Prediction Model”,Journal of Property Valuation and Investment, 7(1): 36-52.
- Giussani, B., Hsia, M. and Tsolacos, S. (1993),“A Comparative Analysis of the Major Determinants of Office Rental Values in Europe”,Journal of Property Valuation and Investment, 11(2): 157-173.
- Gordon, J., Mosbaugh, P. and Canter, T. (1996),“Integrating Regional Economic Indicators with the Real Estate Cycle”,Journal of Real Estate Research, 12(3): 46950 Hargitay, S.E and Yu, S. M. (1993),Property Investment Decisions: A Quantitative Approach, London: E & F. N. Spon
- Grissom, T., Hartzell, D., Liu, C. (1987), Anapproach to industrial real estate market segmentationand valuation using the arbitrage pricing paradigm,Journal of the American Real Estate and UrbanEconomics Association, No15(3): 199–219.
- Hartzell, D.J., Shulman, D. G. and Wurtzebach, C. H. (1987),“Refining the Analysis of Regional Diversification for Income-Producing Real Estate”,Journal of Real Estate Research, 2(2): 85-95.
- Hekman, J. (1985),“Rental Price Adjustment and Investment in the Office Market”, Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, 13(1):32
- Hoesli, M. and MacGregor, B. (2000),Property Investment: Principles and Practice of Portfolio Management, London: Pearson Education Ltd.
- Houlder, V. (1992),“Why bricks are no longer bankable”,Financial Times, 10 April:
- Hui, E.C.M. and Yu, K. H. (2006),“The Dynamics of Hong Kong’s Office Rental Market”,International Journal of Strategic PropertyManagement,10: 145-168.
- Ifediora, G.S.A. (1993),“Appraisal Framework”, Enugu: Iwuba Ifediora and Associates.
- Igboko, N.P. (1992),“Research Project on Valuation Methods in Nigeria with Special Reference to the Years Purchase”. Lagos: The Nigerian Institution of Estate Surveyors and Valuers.
- Investment Property Forum (2007),Understanding Commercial Property Investment, www. Ipf.org.uk,Retrieved 3 December, 2007.
- Johnson, T.; Davies, K. and Shapiro, E. (2000),“Modern Methods of Valuation of Lands”, Houses and Buildings (9e). London: Estates Gazette.
- Kalu, I. U. (2001), “Property Valuation and Appraisal”, Owerri: Bon Publications.
- Karakozova, O. (2005),“Modelling and Forecasting Property Rents and Returns”,Helsinki: Swedish School of Economics and Business Administration.
- Kivilahti, A. and Vitanen, K. (2006),“Dynamics of the Commercial Property Markets in Finland”, Paper presented at the XXIII FIG Congress held at Munich, Germany, 8th – 13th October.
- McCartney, J. (2012),“Short and Long-Run Rent Adjustment in the Dublin Office
- Market”,“Journal of Property Research”, 29(3):201-226. McWilliams, D. (1992),“Commercial Property and Company Borrowing”,Royal
- Institution of Chartered Surveyors, Paper No. 22. London: RICS. Morley, S. (1983),“Investment Valuation”, In Darlow, C. (Ed). Valuation and Investment Appraisal, London: Estates Gazette.
- NBS (2010), “National Manpower Stock and Employment Generation Survey”, Abuja: National Bureau of Statistics
- NBS (2012), Quarterly Statistical Report, Abuja: National Bureau of Statistics
- NIESV (2013), Investment Property Databank, Abuja: The Nigerian Institution of
- Estate Surveyors and Valuers. Pollakowski, H. O.; Wachter, S.M and Lynford, L. (1992), “Did Office Market Size
- Matter in the 1980s? A Time-Series Cross-Sectional Analysis of Metropolitan Area
- Office Markets”,Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, 20(1):303-24. Richmond, D. (1993),Introduction to Valuation, 3. Ed., London: Macmillan.
- Scott, P. and Judge, G. (2000),“Cycles and Steps in British Commercial Property
- Values”,Applied Economics, 32: 1287-1297.
- Shilton, L. (1995),“Patterns of Office Space Demand Cycles”,Real Estate Research
- Institute,Working Paper. Tonelli, M., Cowley, M. and Boyd, T. (2004),“Forecasting Office Building Rental
- Growth Using a Dynamic Approach”,Pacific Rim Property Research Journal, 10(3): 283-30 Udo, G.O. (2003),“Model Building in Property Valuation”, Enugu: Institute for
- Development Studies, University of Nigeria. Voith, R. and Crone, T. (1988),“National Vacancy Rates and the Persistence of
- Shocks in the U.S. Office Markets”,Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, 16(4):437–58. Wyatt, P. (2007),“Property Valuation in Economic Context”, Oxford: Blackwell.
- Yusof, A. M. (2001),“Modelling Office Market in Malaysia”, Paper presented at the Pacific Rim Real Estate Society Conference held at Adelaide, January 21st – 24 th .
- Namnso Bassey Udoekanem is a Lecturer in the Department of Estate Management and Valuation, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria. He holds a Bachelor of Science (B.Sc) and Master of Science (M.Sc) Degrees in Estate Management of the University of Nigeria, Nsukka. He was awarded the University of Nigeria Academic Prize to the best graduating student in Valuation in the Department of Estate Management of the University for the 2000/2001 academic session. His PhD Thesis has reached an advanced stage of completion at the Department of Estate Management and Valuation, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria. His research interest is in property investment valuation, property market analysis and property development appraisal.
- Namnso Bassey Udoekanem, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nijerya’da Gayrı Menkul Değerlendirme Yönetimi Bölümünde öğretim elemanı olarak görev yapmaktadır. Lisans ve Yüksek Lisans derecelerini Nijeryada Gayrı Menkul Değerlendirme Yönetimi üzerine tamamlamıştır. 2000-2001 akademik yılında aynı bölümde en başarılı öğrenci olarak ödüllendirilmiştir.Yine aynı üniversitenin aynı bölümünde doktora çalışması tamamlanmak üzeredir.Özel ilgi alanları; yatırım değerleme, yatırım piyasa analizi ve yatırım geliştirmedir.
- James Idemudia Ighalo is a Professor in the Department of Estate Management and Valuation, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria. He holds a PhD Degree in Land Economy of the University of Cambridge, UK. He has published extensively in national and international journals. His research interest is in urban economy, housing and land policies. Prof. Dr. James Idemudia Ighalo,Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nijerya’da Gayrı Menkul Değerlendirme Yönetimi Bölümünde görev yapmaktadır. Doktora derecesini Kembriç Üniversitesinden almıştır. Ulusal ve uluslararsı dergilerde birçok makalesi yayınlanmıştır. Muhammad Bashar Nuhu is a senior lecturer in the Department of Estate Management and Valuation, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria. He holds a PhD Degree in Estate Management of the Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria. His research interest is in land policies, land information system and property investment analysis. Muhammad Bashar Nuhu,Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nijerya’da Gayrı Menkul Değerlendirme Yönetimi Bölümünde öğretim elemanı olarak görev yapmaktadır.Doktora eğitimini Nijeryada,Federal University of Technology, Gayrı Menkul Değerlendirme Yönetimi üzerine tamamlamıştır. İlgi alanları, arazi politikaları, arazi bilgi sistemleri ve mülkiyet yatırım analizleri olarak belirlenmektedir.
Determinants Of Commercial Property Rental Growth in Minna, Nigeria
Yıl 2014,
Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 60 - 75, 08.10.2014
Namnso Bassey Udoekanem, James İdemudia Nuhu
Öz
gayrımenkul oranı, ofis gayrımenkul piyasasında kira artışlarını açıklayan en önemli iki belirleyici olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Ancak, bu artış ofis gayrımenkul değeri ile ticari gayrımenkul değeri arasında %83’e kadar değişebilmektedir. Çalışma 2001 yılı sabit yıl alındığında 2012 yılına kadar geçen sürede ofis gayrımenkul kiralama değerlerinde yukarıya doğru bir hareket olduğunu ortaya koymuştur
Kaynakça
- Archer, W. R. & Ling, D.C. (1997),“The Three Dimensions of Real Estate Markets: Linking Space, Capital and Property Markets”,Journal of Real EstateFinance,fall: 7Barlowe, R. (1986), Land Resource Economics4 th . Ed., New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
- Baum, A. and Crosby, N. (1995),Property Investment Appraisal2 nd . Ed., London: InternationalThomson Business Press.
- Baum, A. and Mackmin, D. (1989),The Income Approach to Property Valuation,3th. Ed., London:Routledge.
- Boon, F.N. and Higgins, D. (2007),“Modelling the Commercial Property Market: An
- EmpiricalStudy of the Singapore Office Market”,Pacific Rim Property Research Journal, 13(2): 176-193. Born, W. L. and Pyhrr, S. A. (1994),“Real Estate Valuation: The Effect of Market and PropertyCycles”,Journal of Real Estate Research, 9(4): 455-486.
- CBN (2010),Statistical Bulletin, Abuja: Central Bank of Nigeria.
- CBN (2012),Quarterly Statistical Bulletin (Q4), Abuja: Central Bank of Nigeria.
- Clapp, J. M. (1993),“Dynamics of Office Markets: Empirical Findings and Research
- Issues”, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association Monograph Series, No.Washington, DC: The Urban Institute Press. Corcoran, P. J. (1987),“Explaining the Commercial Real Estate Market”, Journal of
- Portfolio Management,Spring: 15-21. Corgel, J.B., Smith, H.C. and Ling, D. H. (2000),Real Estate Perspectives: An
- Introduction to Real Estate, 4 th Ed., New York: McGraw-Hill Corgel, J. B. and Gay, G. D. (1987),“Local Economic Base, Geographic
- Diversification, and Risk Management of Mortgage Portfolios”,Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, 15(3):256–67. Crosby, N. (1983),“The Investment Method of Valuation: A Real Value
- Approach”,Journal of Valuation 1: 341-50; 2: 48-59. Crosby, N. (1984),“The Investment Valuation Techniques: The Shape of things to come”, The Valuer, 53(7):196-7.
- Gardiner, C. and Henneberry, J. (1988),“The Development of a Simple Office Rent Prediction Model”,Journal of Property Valuation and Investment, 7(1): 36-52.
- Giussani, B., Hsia, M. and Tsolacos, S. (1993),“A Comparative Analysis of the Major Determinants of Office Rental Values in Europe”,Journal of Property Valuation and Investment, 11(2): 157-173.
- Gordon, J., Mosbaugh, P. and Canter, T. (1996),“Integrating Regional Economic Indicators with the Real Estate Cycle”,Journal of Real Estate Research, 12(3): 46950 Hargitay, S.E and Yu, S. M. (1993),Property Investment Decisions: A Quantitative Approach, London: E & F. N. Spon
- Grissom, T., Hartzell, D., Liu, C. (1987), Anapproach to industrial real estate market segmentationand valuation using the arbitrage pricing paradigm,Journal of the American Real Estate and UrbanEconomics Association, No15(3): 199–219.
- Hartzell, D.J., Shulman, D. G. and Wurtzebach, C. H. (1987),“Refining the Analysis of Regional Diversification for Income-Producing Real Estate”,Journal of Real Estate Research, 2(2): 85-95.
- Hekman, J. (1985),“Rental Price Adjustment and Investment in the Office Market”, Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, 13(1):32
- Hoesli, M. and MacGregor, B. (2000),Property Investment: Principles and Practice of Portfolio Management, London: Pearson Education Ltd.
- Houlder, V. (1992),“Why bricks are no longer bankable”,Financial Times, 10 April:
- Hui, E.C.M. and Yu, K. H. (2006),“The Dynamics of Hong Kong’s Office Rental Market”,International Journal of Strategic PropertyManagement,10: 145-168.
- Ifediora, G.S.A. (1993),“Appraisal Framework”, Enugu: Iwuba Ifediora and Associates.
- Igboko, N.P. (1992),“Research Project on Valuation Methods in Nigeria with Special Reference to the Years Purchase”. Lagos: The Nigerian Institution of Estate Surveyors and Valuers.
- Investment Property Forum (2007),Understanding Commercial Property Investment, www. Ipf.org.uk,Retrieved 3 December, 2007.
- Johnson, T.; Davies, K. and Shapiro, E. (2000),“Modern Methods of Valuation of Lands”, Houses and Buildings (9e). London: Estates Gazette.
- Kalu, I. U. (2001), “Property Valuation and Appraisal”, Owerri: Bon Publications.
- Karakozova, O. (2005),“Modelling and Forecasting Property Rents and Returns”,Helsinki: Swedish School of Economics and Business Administration.
- Kivilahti, A. and Vitanen, K. (2006),“Dynamics of the Commercial Property Markets in Finland”, Paper presented at the XXIII FIG Congress held at Munich, Germany, 8th – 13th October.
- McCartney, J. (2012),“Short and Long-Run Rent Adjustment in the Dublin Office
- Market”,“Journal of Property Research”, 29(3):201-226. McWilliams, D. (1992),“Commercial Property and Company Borrowing”,Royal
- Institution of Chartered Surveyors, Paper No. 22. London: RICS. Morley, S. (1983),“Investment Valuation”, In Darlow, C. (Ed). Valuation and Investment Appraisal, London: Estates Gazette.
- NBS (2010), “National Manpower Stock and Employment Generation Survey”, Abuja: National Bureau of Statistics
- NBS (2012), Quarterly Statistical Report, Abuja: National Bureau of Statistics
- NIESV (2013), Investment Property Databank, Abuja: The Nigerian Institution of
- Estate Surveyors and Valuers. Pollakowski, H. O.; Wachter, S.M and Lynford, L. (1992), “Did Office Market Size
- Matter in the 1980s? A Time-Series Cross-Sectional Analysis of Metropolitan Area
- Office Markets”,Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, 20(1):303-24. Richmond, D. (1993),Introduction to Valuation, 3. Ed., London: Macmillan.
- Scott, P. and Judge, G. (2000),“Cycles and Steps in British Commercial Property
- Values”,Applied Economics, 32: 1287-1297.
- Shilton, L. (1995),“Patterns of Office Space Demand Cycles”,Real Estate Research
- Institute,Working Paper. Tonelli, M., Cowley, M. and Boyd, T. (2004),“Forecasting Office Building Rental
- Growth Using a Dynamic Approach”,Pacific Rim Property Research Journal, 10(3): 283-30 Udo, G.O. (2003),“Model Building in Property Valuation”, Enugu: Institute for
- Development Studies, University of Nigeria. Voith, R. and Crone, T. (1988),“National Vacancy Rates and the Persistence of
- Shocks in the U.S. Office Markets”,Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, 16(4):437–58. Wyatt, P. (2007),“Property Valuation in Economic Context”, Oxford: Blackwell.
- Yusof, A. M. (2001),“Modelling Office Market in Malaysia”, Paper presented at the Pacific Rim Real Estate Society Conference held at Adelaide, January 21st – 24 th .
- Namnso Bassey Udoekanem is a Lecturer in the Department of Estate Management and Valuation, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria. He holds a Bachelor of Science (B.Sc) and Master of Science (M.Sc) Degrees in Estate Management of the University of Nigeria, Nsukka. He was awarded the University of Nigeria Academic Prize to the best graduating student in Valuation in the Department of Estate Management of the University for the 2000/2001 academic session. His PhD Thesis has reached an advanced stage of completion at the Department of Estate Management and Valuation, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria. His research interest is in property investment valuation, property market analysis and property development appraisal.
- Namnso Bassey Udoekanem, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nijerya’da Gayrı Menkul Değerlendirme Yönetimi Bölümünde öğretim elemanı olarak görev yapmaktadır. Lisans ve Yüksek Lisans derecelerini Nijeryada Gayrı Menkul Değerlendirme Yönetimi üzerine tamamlamıştır. 2000-2001 akademik yılında aynı bölümde en başarılı öğrenci olarak ödüllendirilmiştir.Yine aynı üniversitenin aynı bölümünde doktora çalışması tamamlanmak üzeredir.Özel ilgi alanları; yatırım değerleme, yatırım piyasa analizi ve yatırım geliştirmedir.
- James Idemudia Ighalo is a Professor in the Department of Estate Management and Valuation, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria. He holds a PhD Degree in Land Economy of the University of Cambridge, UK. He has published extensively in national and international journals. His research interest is in urban economy, housing and land policies. Prof. Dr. James Idemudia Ighalo,Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nijerya’da Gayrı Menkul Değerlendirme Yönetimi Bölümünde görev yapmaktadır. Doktora derecesini Kembriç Üniversitesinden almıştır. Ulusal ve uluslararsı dergilerde birçok makalesi yayınlanmıştır. Muhammad Bashar Nuhu is a senior lecturer in the Department of Estate Management and Valuation, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria. He holds a PhD Degree in Estate Management of the Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria. His research interest is in land policies, land information system and property investment analysis. Muhammad Bashar Nuhu,Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nijerya’da Gayrı Menkul Değerlendirme Yönetimi Bölümünde öğretim elemanı olarak görev yapmaktadır.Doktora eğitimini Nijeryada,Federal University of Technology, Gayrı Menkul Değerlendirme Yönetimi üzerine tamamlamıştır. İlgi alanları, arazi politikaları, arazi bilgi sistemleri ve mülkiyet yatırım analizleri olarak belirlenmektedir.