Effect of Income Tax on Income Distribution in Türkiye: Evidence from Dynamic ARDL Simulations

Year 2024, Volume: 10 Issue: 2, 67 - 86, 31.12.2024

Kadir Karagöz

Abstract

Poverty and distorted income distribution are one of the main socioeconomic problems of many underdeveloped and developing countries. Another factor that worsens the situation for these countries is the inequality in income distribution and the existence of large differences between income groups. In this case, while a large segment of society has a low share in the total income, a large portion of the total income falls into the hands of a small minority. One of the main duties of governments is to ensure justice in income distribution in society, and one of the main instruments they can use for this purpose is income tax policy. An effective and fair income tax policy will tax people in direct proportion to their income, thus preventing the concentration of wealth in a certain segment and helping to protect the poor.
In this study, which is about the impact of taxes on income distribution, the situation in Turkey is investigated using time series methods. Findings obtained from the analysis based on the dynamic ARDL model reveal that income tax in Turkey does not affect income distribution in the long term but has a significant but positive effect in the short term. In other words, income tax policy in Turkey has an increasing impact on income distribution disorder in the short term, causing a situation that is detrimental to the poor. Accordingly, it would be useful to take corrective measures by rearranging tax rates according to income brackets.

Keywords

Income distribution, income tax, Theil’s T statistics, dynamic ARDL simulations

Türkiye’de Gelir Vergisinin Gelir Dağılımı Üzerindeki̇ Etkisi̇: Dinamik ARDL Simülasyonlarından Kanıtlar

Abstract

Yoksulluk ve çarpık gelir dağılımı, az gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan birçok ülkenin temel sosyoekonomik sorunlarından biridir. Bu ülkeler için durumu daha da kötüleştiren bir diğer faktör ise gelir dağılımındaki adaletsizlik ve gelir grupları arasında büyük farkların bulunmasıdır. Bu durumda toplumun büyük bir kesimi toplam gelirden düşük bir pay alırken, toplam gelirin büyük bir kısmı küçük bir azınlığın eline geçmektedir. Hükümetlerin temel görevlerinden biri toplumda gelir dağılımında adaleti sağlamaktır ve bu amaçla kullanabilecekleri temel araçlardan biri de gelir vergisi politikasıdır. Etkin ve adil bir gelir vergisi politikası, kişileri gelirleri ile doğru orantılı olarak vergilendirecek, böylece servetin belli bir kesimde yoğunlaşmasını önleyecek ve yoksulların korunmasına yardımcı olabilecektir.
Vergilerin gelir dağılımı üzerindeki etkisini konu alan bu çalışmada, Türkiye'deki durum zaman serisi yöntemleri kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Dinamik ARDL modeline dayalı analizden elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye'de gelir vergisinin uzun dönemde gelir dağılımını etkilemediğini ancak kısa dönemde anlamlı ancak pozitif bir etkiye sahip olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Diğer bir deyişle, Türkiye'de gelir vergisi politikası kısa vadede gelir dağılımındaki bozukluğu artırıcı bir etkiye sahiptir ve yoksulların aleyhine bir duruma neden olmaktadır. Bu itibarla, vergi oranları gelir dilimlerine göre yeniden düzenlenerek düzeltici önlemler alınması faydalı olacaktır

Keywords

Gelir dağılımı, gelir vergisi, Theil, dinamik ARDL simülasyonları

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