Year 2018, Volume 02 , Issue 2, Pages 27 - 33 2018-12-31

Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model

Uğur BAŞER [1] , Mehmet BOZOĞLU [2] , Nevra ALHAS EROĞLU [3] , Bakiye KILIÇ TOPUZ [4]


Turkey is one of main producers and exporter countries of chestnut in the world. It is essential to assess scientifically the accurate future production and export potentials of chestnut on the basis of past trends. This study focuses on forecasting the chestnut production and export of Turkey up to the year 2021 using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The time series data for the chestnut production and export of Turkey were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Annual data for the period of 1961-2016 was used for the study. The study revealed that the best models for forecasting the chestnut production and export were ARIMA (1, 1, 1) and ARIMA (1, 2, 1), respectively. The ARIMA model showed that while the chestnut production of Turkey in 2021 would be 64.183 tonnes with lower limit of 38.946 tonnes and upper limit of 89420 tonnes. However, Turkey’s chestnut export in 2021 would be 7.962 tonnes with lower limit of 563 tonnes and upper limit of 15362 tonnes. The study concluded that Turkey’s chestnut production and export will increase in the forecasted years. The stakeholders of chestnut sector should take account these projections in their production and marketing decision.
Chestnut, Forecasting, Production, Export, ARIMA model, Turkey
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Primary Language en
Subjects Mathematics
Published Date 02 (2) 2018
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Orcid: 0000-0003-4961-2764
Author: Uğur BAŞER (Primary Author)
Institution: ONDOKUZ MAYIS UNIVERSITY, FACULTY OF AGRICULTURE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
Country: Turkey


Orcid: 0000-0001-8333-1865
Author: Mehmet BOZOĞLU
Institution: ONDOKUZ MAYIS UNIVERSITY, FACULTY OF AGRICULTURE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
Country: Turkey


Orcid: 0000-0002-1188-8274
Author: Nevra ALHAS EROĞLU
Institution: Turkish Statistical Institute Regional Directorate
Country: Turkey


Orcid: 0000-0002-3607-4306
Author: Bakiye KILIÇ TOPUZ
Institution: IGDIR UNIVERSITY, IĞDIR FACULTY OF AGRICULTURE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
Country: Turkey


Dates

Publication Date : December 31, 2018

Bibtex @research article { forecasting482789, journal = {Turkish Journal of Forecasting}, issn = {}, eissn = {2618-6594}, address = {Giresun Üniversitesi Fen Edebiyat Fakültesi İstatistik Bölümü, Güre Yerleşkesi, 28100 Merkez, Giresun}, publisher = {Giresun University}, year = {2018}, volume = {02}, pages = {27 - 33}, doi = {10.34110/forecasting.482789}, title = {Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model}, key = {cite}, author = {Başer, Uğur and Bozoğlu, Mehmet and Alhas Eroğlu, Nevra and Kılıç Topuz, Bakiye} }
APA Başer, U , Bozoğlu, M , Alhas Eroğlu, N , Kılıç Topuz, B . (2018). Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model . Turkish Journal of Forecasting , 02 (2) , 27-33 . DOI: 10.34110/forecasting.482789
MLA Başer, U , Bozoğlu, M , Alhas Eroğlu, N , Kılıç Topuz, B . "Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model" . Turkish Journal of Forecasting 02 (2018 ): 27-33 <https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/forecasting/issue/39381/482789>
Chicago Başer, U , Bozoğlu, M , Alhas Eroğlu, N , Kılıç Topuz, B . "Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model". Turkish Journal of Forecasting 02 (2018 ): 27-33
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model AU - Uğur Başer , Mehmet Bozoğlu , Nevra Alhas Eroğlu , Bakiye Kılıç Topuz Y1 - 2018 PY - 2018 N1 - doi: 10.34110/forecasting.482789 DO - 10.34110/forecasting.482789 T2 - Turkish Journal of Forecasting JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 27 EP - 33 VL - 02 IS - 2 SN - -2618-6594 M3 - doi: 10.34110/forecasting.482789 UR - https://doi.org/10.34110/forecasting.482789 Y2 - 2019 ER -
EndNote %0 Turkish Journal of Forecasting Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model %A Uğur Başer , Mehmet Bozoğlu , Nevra Alhas Eroğlu , Bakiye Kılıç Topuz %T Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model %D 2018 %J Turkish Journal of Forecasting %P -2618-6594 %V 02 %N 2 %R doi: 10.34110/forecasting.482789 %U 10.34110/forecasting.482789
ISNAD Başer, Uğur , Bozoğlu, Mehmet , Alhas Eroğlu, Nevra , Kılıç Topuz, Bakiye . "Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model". Turkish Journal of Forecasting 02 / 2 (December 2019): 27-33 . https://doi.org/10.34110/forecasting.482789
AMA Başer U , Bozoğlu M , Alhas Eroğlu N , Kılıç Topuz B . Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model. TJF. 2018; 02(2): 27-33.
Vancouver Başer U , Bozoğlu M , Alhas Eroğlu N , Kılıç Topuz B . Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model. Turkish Journal of Forecasting. 2018; 02(2): 27-33.