Vergi Yapısı ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Year 2018, Issue: 643, 47 - 70, 01.09.2018

Mehmet Songur Cihan Yüksel

Abstract

Bir maliye politikası aracı olarak vergilerin ekonomik büyümeyle karşılıklı bir ilişkisinden söz etmek kuramsal olarak mümkündür. Ekonomik büyüme vergi tabanını genişleterek vergi gelirini etkileyebilmekte; vergilerdeki değişim de milli gelir dinamikleri yoluyla ekonomik büyümeyi etkileyebilmektedir. Ancak bu kuramsal kabulün ampirik olarak test edilmesi gerekmektedir. Bu nedenle çalışmamız Türkiye’nin 1980-2015 dönemi verileriyle, vergi yapısını oluşturan vergi türleri ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi Granger, Toda-Yamamoto ve Breitung-Candelon Frekans Alanı nedensellik testlerinden yararlanarak test etmiştir. Sonuçlar, toplam vergi gelirleri, dolaysız vergiler, dolaylı vergiler ve gelir vergileri ile ekonomik büyüme arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin varlığına işaret etmektedir. Diğer taraftan, elde edilen bulgular, toplam vergi gelirleri, dolaysız vergiler ve gelir vergisi ile ekonomik büyüme arasında nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu göstermektedir

Keywords

Vergi yapısı, dolaylı vergi, dolaysız vergi, ekonomik büyüme

The Relationship between Tax Structure and Economic Growth in Turkey

Abstract

It is theoretically possible to talk about the mutual relationship between taxation as a means of fiscal policyand economic growth.While economic growth can affect tax revenue by expanding the tax base; the change in taxes can also affect economic growth through national income dynamics. However, this theoretical acceptance must be tested empirically. For this reason, our study has tested the relationship between the tax types that compose the tax structure and economic growth for Turkey’s 1980-2015 period, using the Granger, Toda-Yamamoto and Breitung-Candelon Frequency Domain causality tests.The results indicate the existence of a long run relationship between total tax revenues, indirect taxes, direct taxes, income taxes and economic growth. On the other hand, the findings have shown that there exists a causal relationship between total tax revenues, indirect taxes, income taxes and economic growth

Keywords

Tax structure, indirect taxes, direct taxes, economic growth

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