Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Hane Halkı Tasarruflarının Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri

Year 2017, Issue: 633, 61 - 78, 01.11.2017

K. Batu Tunay

Abstract

Çalışmada gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerde hane halkının tasarrufları üzerinde etkili olan faktörler deneysel olarak analiz edilmiştir. Analizlerde makro ekonomik değişkenlere ve özellikle ekonomik dalgalanmaların etkilerine odaklanılmıştır. Literatürde tasarrufların makro ekonomik ve demografik belirleyicileri konusunda oldukça fazla deneysel çalışma yapılmış olmasına rağmen, döngüsel etkilerin fazla araştırılmadığı görülmektedir. Bu özelliği çalışmayı, benzerlerinden ayırmakta ve ilgili literatüre asıl katkısını oluşturmaktadır. Bu bağlamda özellikle çıktı açığı ve işsizlik açığı gibi ekonomik faaliyet hacmini yansıtan değişkenlerin tasarruflar üzerindeki etkileri araştırılmıştır. 1995-2015 dönemi yıllık verilerini kapsayan örneklem sistem dinamik panel veri modelleriyle analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, hane halkı tasarruflarının uzun vadeli faiz oranları ve halkın net servetinden etkilendiği yönündedir. Bazı değişkenlerin çoklu doğrusal bağlantı sorununa neden oldukları düşüncesiyle, değişkenlerin tasarruflarla münferit ilişkileri de incelenmiştir. Çıktı açığı ve işsizlik açığı gibi değişkenlerin tasarrufları negatif etkiledikleri belirlenmiştir. Bu bulgular ekonomik dalgalanmaların tasarruflar üzerindeki etkilerini gösterdiğinden önemlidir. Tasarrufların teşvik edilmesinin sürdürülebilir büyüme açısından büyük önem taşıdığı görülmüştür. Politik otoritelerin tasarrufları teşvik etmeye yönelik kararlarında döngüsel etkileri dikkate almaları gerekmektedir

Keywords

Tasarruflar, ekonomik döngüler, dinamik panel veri modelleri

Macroeconomic Determinants of House Hold Savings in Developed and Developing Countries

Abstract

In this study were analyzed empirically the factors influencing the household savings in the developed and developing countries. Analyzes focused on macroeconomic variables and particularly on the effects of economic fluctuations. Although much empirical study has been done on the macroeconomic and demographic determinants of savings in the literature, it is seen that cyclical effects have not been adequately researched. This feature distinguishes the study from its analogues and forms the real contribution to the relevant literature. In this context, the effects on the savings of variables that reflect the economic activity volume, especially the output gap and unemployment deficit, were investigated. The sample covering annual data the period 1995-2015 has been analyzed with system dynamic panel data models. Findings are that household savings are affected by long-term interest rates and people’s net wealth. Against the possible multicolinearity problem of some varibles, the individual relationships of variables with savings also have considered. Variables such as output gap and unemployment gap have been found to negatively impact savings. These findings are important because they show the effects of economic fluctuations on savings. Encouraging savings is crucial to sustainable growth. Political authorities need to consider cyclical effects in their decisions to encourage savings

Keywords

Savings, business cycles, dynamic panel data models

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