Türkiye’den Yurt Dışına YapılanDoğrudan Yatırımlar: Rejim DeğişimModeli Yaklaşımı

Year 2017, Issue: 625, 53 - 63, 01.03.2017

Raif Cergibozan , Caner Demir

Abstract

Bu çalışma Türkiye’nin yurt dışına yaptığı doğrudan yabancı yatırımlarının (DYY) zamana bağlı davranışını Markov Rejim Değişim Modeli aracılığıyla incelemektedir. Analiz 1992-2015 dönemini kapsamakta ve ana-ülkedeki dışa açıklık oranıyla yatırım maliyetlerini kontrol eden çeşitli rejim değişim modellerini içermektedir. Analiz sonuçları, her bir kontrol değişkeni ile uygulanan modellerin hemen hemen aynı yüksek ve düşük rejim olasılık örüntülerine işaret ettiğini ortaya koymaktadır. 2001 ulusal ekonomik krizi haricinde, Türkiye’nin yurt dışına yaptığı doğrudan yatırımları, 2000 öncesi ve sonrası olmak üzere iki belirgin ve ayrışık aşamayı göstermektedir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, üç-yıllık bir kriz sonrası toparlanmanın ardından, 2004 yılından bu yana, Türk yatırımcıların yurt dışında yatırım yapma eğilimini önemli ölçüde artmıştır.

Keywords

Dışarıya yönelik doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, Sermaye hareketliliği, Markov Rejim Değişim Modeli

Outward Foreign Direct Investment Flows from Turkey: Regime Switching Model Approach

Abstract

This study investigates the time-varying behavior of Turkish outward foreign direct investment (FDI) flows by employing the Markov Regime Switching Model. The analysis covers the 1992-2015 period and contains several regime switching models controlling openness rate and investment costs of the home country. The results reveal that estimations with each control variable indicate almost same high and low regime probability patterns. Except the 2001 national economic crisis, the outward FDI flows of Turkey demonstrate two distinguished and separated stages which are the pre- and post-2000 periods. According to the findings, after a three-year post crisis recovery stage, the propensity for investing in abroad of Turkish investors has noticeable increased since 2004.

Keywords

Outward foreign direct investment, Capital mobility, Markov regime switching model

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