Wagner Kanunu’nun TürkiyeEkonomisi için Sınanması: ÇeşitliZaman Serisi Bulguları

Year 2017, Issue: 625, 75 - 89, 01.03.2017

Raif Cergibozan , Emre Çevik Caner Demir

Abstract

Bu çalışma, çeşitli zaman serisi yöntemleri kullanarak Türkiye’de Wagner Kanunu’nun geçerliliğini sınamaktadır. Wagner Kanunu, basit olarak, ekonomi büyüdükçe kamu harcamalarının artma eğiliminde olduğunu öne sürmektedir. Bu amaçla, çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisinin 1960-2015 dönemine ilişkin bazı ekonometrik bulgulara yer verilmektedir. Johansen eşbütünleşme testi ve ARDL sınır testinden elde edilen sonuçlar kamu harcamalarıyla ekonomik büyüme arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Çalışma ayrıca yapısal kırılmaları da göz önünde bulundurarak FMOLS ve DOLS tahmin sonuçlarını sunmaktadır. Uygulanan tüm analizlerden elde edilen bulgular birbirleriyle tutarlı olup, Wagner Kanunu’nun Türkiye ekonomisi için geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir.

Keywords

Wagner Kanunu, Kamu Harcamaları, Eşbütünleşme, ARDL Sınır Testi, FMOLS, DOLS.

Testing the Wagner's Law for Turkish Economy: Some Findings from Time Series Data

Abstract

This study tests the validity of Wagner’s Law in Turkey by employing several time series methods. Wagner’s Law basicly suggests that government spendings tend to increase as the economy grows. For this purpose, the study presents some econometric findings from Turkish economy for the 1960-2015 period. The results obtained via the Johansen cointegration test and ARDL bounds test indicate that there exists a long-run relationship between government expenditure and economic growth. The study also presents FMOLS and DOLS estimation results considering the structural breaks. The findings from all the analyses of the study are consistent with each other and reveal that Wagner’s Law is valid for Turkish economy

Keywords

Wagner’s Law, Public Expenditures, Cointegration, ARDL Bounds Test, ARDL, FMOLS, DOLS

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