Finansal Gelişmişlik ve Beşeri Sermaye Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye için Zaman Serileri Analizi (1971-2013)

Year 2017, Issue: 624, 25 - 39, 01.02.2017

N. Savaş Demirci Deniz Özyakışır

Abstract

Finansal gelişmişlik ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiler üzerine birçok çalışma ortaya konmuş fakat finansal gelişmişlik ve modern içsel büyüme teorilerine göre ekonomik büyümenin başlıca kaynaklarından biri olan beşeri sermaye arasındaki ilişki gözlerden büyük ölçüde kaçmıştır. Bu noktada ekonomik büyüme ile yakın ilişki içinde bulunan bu iki değişken arasındaki ilişkinin de incelenmesi gerekmektedir. Çalışmada tarafımızdan oluşturulan beşeri sermaye endeksi ve finansal gelişmişlik göstergesi olarak finansal sektör tarafından kullandırılan kredilerin GSYİH’ya % oranı arasındaki ilişkiler, 1971-2013 dönemi yıllık verileriyle Türkiye için Johansen eşbütünleşme testi ve VECM’ye dayalı Granger nedensellik testi ile araştırılmıştır. Ekonometrik analiz sonuçları; finansal gelişmişlik ve beşeri sermayenin eşbütünleşik olduğunu, aralarında uzun dönemde pozitif bir ilişkinin bulunduğunu ve kısa ve uzun dönemde beşeri sermayeden finansal gelişmişliğe doğru nedenselliğin varlığını göstermektedir. Bu bağlamda beşeri sermayeye yapılacak yatırımların uzun vadede ülkemizde finansal gelişmişlik düzeyini artıracağı söylenebilir

Keywords

Finansal gelişmişlik, Beşeri sermaye, Eşbütünleşme, Nedensellik, Vektör Hata Düzeltme Modeli (VECM)

The Relationship Between Financial Development and Human Capital: Time Series Analysis for Turkey (1971-2013)

Abstract

There are many articles about the relationship between financial development and economic growth but the relationship between financial development and human capital which is one of the sources of economic growth according to modern endogenous growth theories has been largely overlooked. At this point the relationship between these two variables that have close connections with economic growth should be examined. In this article the relationship between human capital index that we have generated and domestic credits provided by financial sector (% of GDP) have been analysed for Turkey with 1971-2013 annual data by using Johansen cointegration test and VECM based Granger causality test. Econometric analysis results show that financial development and human capital are cointegrated, there is a positive relationship between these variables and causality from human capital to financial development in the short and long run. In this context we can say that human capital investments will increase the level of financial development in our country in the long term

Keywords

Financial development, Human capital, Cointegration, Causality, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

References

• APPLETON, Simon and Francis TEAL; (1998), Human Capital and Economic Development, A background paper prepared for the African Development Report, http://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Publications/00157612-FRERP-39.PDF, 2.10.2016.
• ARORA, Rashmi Umesh and Shyama RATNASIRI; (2011); Financial Development, Financial Inclusion and Human Capital: How Close Is the Link? A Study of India, Paper Presented in the Indian Economy Update, https://crawford.anu.edu.au/acde/ asarc/pdf/papers/conference/INDIA2011_05.pdf, 3.10.2016.
• ARORA, Rashmi Umesh; (2012), ‘‘Financial Inclusion and Human Capital in Developing Asia: the Australian Connection’’, Third World Quarterly, 33 (1), pp. 177-197.
• ASTERIOU, Dimitrios and Stephen G. HALL; (2007), Applied Econometrics, Palgrave Macmillan, New York.
• BAGEHOT, Walter; (1873), Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market, Henry S. King and Co., London.
• BECKER Gary, (1962), “Investment in Human Capital: A Theoretical Analysis”, Journal of Political Economy, 70 (5), pp. 9-49.
• CİHAK, Martin, Aslı DEMİRGÜÇ-KUNT, Erik FEYEN and Ross LEVINE; (2012), Benchmarking Financial Systems around the World, The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6175, https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/12031/wps6175.pdf, 3.10.2016.
• CREANE, Susan, Rishi GOYAL, A. Mushfiq MOBARAK and Randa SAB; (2004), Financial Sector Development in the Middle East and North Africa, IMF Working Paper 04/201, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=17746, 28.9.2016.
• CROCKETT, Andrew; (2011), What Financial System for the 21st Century?, Per Jacobsson Lecture, http://www.bis.org/ events/agm2011/sp110626.pdf, 3.10.2016.
• DÜLGEROĞLU, Ercan; (2003), Kalkınma Ekonomisi, Uludağ Üniversitesi Güçlendirme Vakfı Yayını, Bursa.
• ENDERS, Walter; (2014), Applied Econometric Time Series, John Wiley&Sons, New Jersey.
• ENGLE, Robert F. and Clive William John GRANGER; (1987), ‘‘Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing’’, Econometrica, 55 (2), pp. 251-276.
• ERYİĞİT, Sibel Balı, Kadir Yasin ERYİĞİT and Ercan DÜLGEROĞLU; (2015), ‘‘Local Financial Development and Capital Accumulations: Evidence from Turkey’’, Panoeconomicus, 62 (3), pp. 339-360.
• EVANS, Dwyfor, Christopher J. GREEN and Victor MURINDE; (2002), ‘‘The Importance of Human Capital and Financial Development in Economic Growth: New Evidence Using the Translog Production Function’’, International Journal of Finance&Economics, 7 (2), pp. 123-140.
• FITZGERALD, Valpy; (2006), Financial Development and Economic Growth: A Critical View, Background Paper for World Economic and Social Survey 2006, http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wess/wess_bg_papers/bp_wess2006_ fitzgerald.pdf, 7.10.2016.
• GOLDIN, Claudia; (2016), “Human Capital”, Claude DIEBOLT and Michael HAUPERT (Ed.), Handbook of Cliometrics, Springer Verlag, Heidelberg, pp. 55-86.
• GRANGER, Clive William John and Paul NEWBOLD; (1974), ‘‘Spurious Regression in Econometrics’’, Journal of Econometrics, 2 (1974), pp. 111-120.
• GRANGER, Clive William John; (1969), ‘‘Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods’’, Econometrica, 37 (3), pp. 424-438.
• GRANGER, Clive William John; (1981), ‘‘Some Properties of Time Series Data and Their Use in Econometric Model Specification’’, Journal of Econometrics, 16 (1), pp. 121-130.
• GROSSMAN, Gene M. and Elhanan HELPMAN; (1991), ‘‘Trade, Knowledge Spillovers, and Growth’’, European Economic Review, 35(3), pp. 517-526.
• GUJARATI, Damodar N.; (2003), Basic Econometrics, McGraw-Hill, New York.
• GURLEY, John G. and Edward S. SHAW; (1967), ‘‘Financial Structure and Economic Development’’, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 15 (3), pp. 257-268.