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Effects of Terror on Tourism Activities in BRICS and MINT Countries

Year 2016, Issue: 618, 43 - 50, 01.08.2016

Abstract

In the globalized world economy, economic events that bring about uncertainties have an impact on all countries. Tourism has been gaining importance in the world economy with its rapid development and significant contributions to the economy. In the meantime, increasing terror events all around the world have been affecting tourism mobility. This study aims to investigate the effects of terror events occurred in recent years on the tourist arrivals in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey) countries. For this aim, bootstrap causality test based on SUR model, which was suggested by Konya (2006), was employed to data from the period 2002-2013. According to the empirical results, a unidirectional causality from tourism to terror was found only in Mexico

References

  • ALTAY, H., A. EKİNCİ, ve M.A. PEÇE; (2013), “Ortadoğu’da
  • Terörün Ekonomik Etkileri: Türkiye, Mısır ve Suudi Arabistan Üzerine Bir İnceleme”, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 37, ss. 267-288. ARANA, J.E. and C.J. LEON; (2008), “The Impact of Terrorism on Tourism Demand”, Annals of Tourism Research, 35(2), pp. –315.
  • Tourism and Pilgrimage, 2(1), pp. 58-67. BALTAGI, B. H., Q. FENG and C. KAO; (2012), “A Lagrange
  • BHATTACHARYA,M. and P.K. NARAYAN; (2005), “Testing for the random walk hypothesis in the case of visitor arrivals: evidence from Indian tourism”, Applied Economics, 37(13), pp. 1490, doi: 10.1080/00036840500109332.
  • BİLGEL, F. and B.C. KARAHASAN; (2015), “The Economic Costs of Separatist Terrorism in Turkey”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, pp. 1-23, doi:10.1177/0022002715576572.
  • BLANKE, J., T.CHIESA and R.CROTTI; (2013), “Chapter 1.1.
  • The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Index 2013: Contrib- uting to National Growth and Employment”, in The Travel &
  • Tourism Competitiveness Report 2013 Reducing Barriers to Economic Growth and Job Creation, (J. Blanke and T. Chiesa, eds.), pp. 3-41, Geneva: World Economic Forum. BLOMBERG, S., G. D. HESS and A. ORPHANIDES; (2004)
  • ‘‘The Macroeconomic Consequences of Terrorism”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 51, pp. 1007-1032.
  • BLOMBERG, S.B., G.D. HESS and A. WEERAPANA; (2004)
  • “An Economic Model of Terrorism”, Conflict Management and Peace Science, 21(1), pp. 17-28. BREUSCH, T. and A.PAGAN; (1980), “The Lagrange multiplier test and its application to model specifications in economet- rics”, Reviews of Economics Studies, 47, ss. 239–253.
  • DRAKOS, K. and C. KALLANDRANIS; (2015), “A Note on the Effect of Terrorism on Economic Sentiment”, De- fence and Peace Economics, 26(6), pp. 600-608, doi: 1080/10242694.2015.1016295.
  • DRAKOS, K. and A.M. KUTAN; (2003), “Regional effects of ter- rorism on tourism in three Mediterranean countries”, Journal of
  • Conflict Resolution, 47(5), pp. 621-641. DWYER, L.; (2015), “Globalization of tourism: Drivers and out- comes”. Tourism Recreation Research, 40(3), pp. 326-339, doi: 1080/02508281.2015.1075723.
  • EMSEN, Ö.S ve M.K. DEĞER (2004), “Turizm Üzerine Teröriz- min Etkileri: 1984-2001 Türkiye Deneyimi”, Akdeniz İİBF Der- gisi (7), 2004, ss. 67-83.
  • ENDERS,W. and T. SANDLER; (1991), “Causality between transnational terrorism and tourism: The case of Spain”, Ter- rorism, 14, pp. 49-58.
  • ENDERS,W., T. SANDLER, and G. F. PARISE; (1992), “An econometric analysis of the impact of terrorism on tourism”, Kyklos, 45, ss. 531-554.
  • FERIDUN, M.; (2011), “Impact of terrorism on tourism in Tur- key: empirical evidence from Turkey”, Applied Economics, (24), pp. 3349-3354, doi: 10.1080/00036841003636268.
  • GAIBULLOEV, K. and T. SANDLER; (2008), “Growth Conse- quences of Terrorism in Western Europe”, Kyklos 61(3), pp. 424.
  • GAIBULLOEV, K., T. SANDLER and D. SUL; (2010), “New Em- pirics of Transnational Terrorism and Its Impact on Economic
  • Growth,” Third Annual Conference on Terrorism and Policy, Center for Global Collective Action, University of Texas at Dal- las, Richardson, TX, May 20, 2010.
  • GHADERI, Z., B. SABOORI and M. KHOSHKAM; (2016)
  • “Does security matter in tourism demand?”, Current Issues in Tourism, pp. 1-14, doi: 10.1080/13683500.2016.1161603.
  • GRIES, T. and D.MEIERRIEKS; (2010), “From Butter to Guns, from Guns to Butter? Causality Between Terrorism and Eco- nomic Development”, CEA Conference 2010, Quebec City, May 2010.
  • GRIES, T., T. KRIEGER and D. MEIERRIEKS; (2011), “Causal linkages between domestic terrorism and economic growth”
  • GTI, (GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX); (2015), http://economic- sandpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Global-Terrorism- Index-2015.pdf, 08.01.2016.
  • HADDAD, C., A. NASR, E. GHIDA and H. AL IBRAHIM; (2015)
  • “Chapter 1.3. How to Re-Emerge as a Tourism Destination Af- ter a Period of Political Instability ”, in The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2015 Growth through Shocks, (R. Crotti and T. Misrahi, eds.), pp. 53-57, Geneva: World Eco- nomic Forum.
  • ITB (Internationale Tourismus-Börse Berlin); (2015), ITB World Travel Trends Report 2015/2016, Berlin: Messe Berlin GmbH.
  • JENKINS, C.L.; (2015), “Tourism policy and planning for de- velopingcountries: some critical issues”, Tourism Recreation Research, 40(2), pp. 144-156, doi:10.1080/02508281.2015.1
  • JOHANSEN, S. and K. JUSELIUS; (1990), “Maximum Likeli- hood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration– with Applica- tions to the Demand for Money,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), pp. 169–210.
  • KÓNYA, L.; (2006). “Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD Countries with a panel data approach”. Eco- nomic Modelling, 23, pp. 978–992.
  • LEAN, H.H. and R. SMYTH; (2009), “Asian Financial Crisis
  • Avian Flu and Terrorist Threats: Are Shocks to Malaysian Tour- ist Arrivals Permanent or Transitory?”, Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 14(3), pp. 301-321. LLUSA, F. and J. TAVARES; (2006), “Economics and Terror- ism: What We Know, What We Should Know and the Data We
  • Need”, Proceedings of the 10th Annual International Confer- ence on Economics and Security, Thessaloniki, Greece, 22-24 June, 2006.
  • MADANOGLU, M. , M. D. OLSEN and F.A. KWANSA; (2007), “The Impact of Terrorist Bombings on the Market
  • Values of Hospitality and Tourism Enterprises: Global Evi- dence From Turkey, Spain, and Indonesia”, The Journal of Hospitality Financial Management, 15(2), pp. 49-60, doi: 1080/10913211.2007.10653842.
  • MEIERRIEKS, D. and T. GRIES; (2012), “Economic Perfor- mance and Terrorist Activity in Latin America”, Defence and Peace Economics, 23(5), pp. 447-470, doi:10.1080/10242694 2012.656945.
  • MURAT, S., S. ŞENER ve V.YILANCI; (2013), “İktisadi Krizler
  • Doğal Afetler, Terör Faaliyetleri Türkiye'ye Gelen Turistler Üzer- inde Etkili mi?”, İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, 63(1), ss.1-15. PESARAN, M. H., Y. SHIN, and R. J. SMITH, (2001), “Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships”, Jour- nal of Applied Econometrics, 16, pp. 289–326.
  • PESARAN, M.H.; (2004), General Diagnostic Tests for Cross
  • Section Dependence in Panels, CESifo Working Paper 1229; IZA Discussion Paper 1240.[970].
  • RAZA, S.A. and S.T. JAWAID; (2013), “Terrorism and tourism: A conjunction and ramification in Pakistan”, Economic Model- ling, 33 (2013), pp. 65–70
  • SAHA, S. and G. YAP; (2014), “The Moderation Effects of Political Instability and Terrorism on Tourism Development: A Cross-Country Panel Analysis”, Journal of Travel Research, (4), pp. 509-521.
  • SANDLER, T.; (2014), “The analytical study of terrorism: Tak- ing stock”, Journal of Peace Research, 51(2), pp. 257-271.
  • SANTANA-GALLEGO, M., J. ROSELLO-NADAL and J. FOU- RIE; (2016), The effects of terrorism, crime and corruption on tourism, ERSA (Economic Research South Africa) Working Pa- per No. 595, April, 2016.
  • SMYTH, R.,NIELSEN, I and MISHRA,V.; (2009), “ ‘I’ve been to
  • Bali too’(and I will be going back): are terrorist shocks to Bali's tourist arrivals permanent or transitory?”, Applied Economics, (11), pp. 1367-1378, doi: 10.1080/00036840601019356.
  • TOSUN, C. , D. J. TIMOTHY and Y. ÖZTÜRK; (2003), “Tour- ism Growth, National Development and Regional Inequality in
  • Turkey”, Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 11(2-3), pp. 133-161, doi: 10.1080/09669580308667200.
  • TURNER, R. and Z. SEARS; (2013), “Chapter 1.5. Travel &
  • Tourism as a Driver of Employment Growth”, in The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2013 Reducing Barriers to
  • Economic Growth and Job Creation, (J. Blanke and T. Chiesa, eds.), pp. 63-69, Geneva: World Economic Forum. UNWTO (United Nations World Tourism Organisation), 2015.
  • UNWTO Tourism Highlights 2015 Edition. World Tourism Orga- nization, 2015 (Elektronik Kopya), 30.05.2016.
  • YAYA, Mehmet E.; (2009), “Terrorism and Tourism: The Case of Turkey”, Defence and Peace Economics, 20(6), pp. 477-497, doi : 10.1080/10242690903105414.
  • ZELLNER, A.; (1962), “An efficient method of estimating seem- ingly unrelated regressions and tests for aggregation bias”

Terörün BRICS ve MINT Ülkelerindeki Turizm Faaliyetleri Üzerine Etkisi

Year 2016, Issue: 618, 43 - 50, 01.08.2016

Abstract

Küreselleşen dünya ekonomisinde, ekonomik açıdan belirsizliklere sebep olacak olaylar bütün ülkeleri etkilemektedir. Son yıllarda dünya ekonomisi içerisinde hızlı gelişimi ve ekonomilere olan katkısı sebebiyle turizm ülkeler açısından büyük önem kazanmıştır. Bununla birlikte, tüm dünyada artış eğiliminde olan terör olayları turizm hareketliliğini etkilemektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, son yıllarda yaşanan terör olaylarının BRICS (Brezilya, Rusya, Hindistan, Çin ve Güney Afrika) ve MINT (Meksika, Endonezya, Nijerya ve Türkiye) ülkelerini ziyaret eden turist sayısına olan etkilerini incelemektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda, 2002-2013 dönemi inceleme konusu yapılmıştır. Ekonometrik yöntem olarak, Konya (2006) tarafından önerilen SUR modeline dayalı bootstrap nedensellik testi kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre, ele alınan BRICS ve MINT ülkelerinden yalnızca Meksika’da turizmden terörizme doğru nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir

References

  • ALTAY, H., A. EKİNCİ, ve M.A. PEÇE; (2013), “Ortadoğu’da
  • Terörün Ekonomik Etkileri: Türkiye, Mısır ve Suudi Arabistan Üzerine Bir İnceleme”, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 37, ss. 267-288. ARANA, J.E. and C.J. LEON; (2008), “The Impact of Terrorism on Tourism Demand”, Annals of Tourism Research, 35(2), pp. –315.
  • Tourism and Pilgrimage, 2(1), pp. 58-67. BALTAGI, B. H., Q. FENG and C. KAO; (2012), “A Lagrange
  • BHATTACHARYA,M. and P.K. NARAYAN; (2005), “Testing for the random walk hypothesis in the case of visitor arrivals: evidence from Indian tourism”, Applied Economics, 37(13), pp. 1490, doi: 10.1080/00036840500109332.
  • BİLGEL, F. and B.C. KARAHASAN; (2015), “The Economic Costs of Separatist Terrorism in Turkey”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, pp. 1-23, doi:10.1177/0022002715576572.
  • BLANKE, J., T.CHIESA and R.CROTTI; (2013), “Chapter 1.1.
  • The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Index 2013: Contrib- uting to National Growth and Employment”, in The Travel &
  • Tourism Competitiveness Report 2013 Reducing Barriers to Economic Growth and Job Creation, (J. Blanke and T. Chiesa, eds.), pp. 3-41, Geneva: World Economic Forum. BLOMBERG, S., G. D. HESS and A. ORPHANIDES; (2004)
  • ‘‘The Macroeconomic Consequences of Terrorism”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 51, pp. 1007-1032.
  • BLOMBERG, S.B., G.D. HESS and A. WEERAPANA; (2004)
  • “An Economic Model of Terrorism”, Conflict Management and Peace Science, 21(1), pp. 17-28. BREUSCH, T. and A.PAGAN; (1980), “The Lagrange multiplier test and its application to model specifications in economet- rics”, Reviews of Economics Studies, 47, ss. 239–253.
  • DRAKOS, K. and C. KALLANDRANIS; (2015), “A Note on the Effect of Terrorism on Economic Sentiment”, De- fence and Peace Economics, 26(6), pp. 600-608, doi: 1080/10242694.2015.1016295.
  • DRAKOS, K. and A.M. KUTAN; (2003), “Regional effects of ter- rorism on tourism in three Mediterranean countries”, Journal of
  • Conflict Resolution, 47(5), pp. 621-641. DWYER, L.; (2015), “Globalization of tourism: Drivers and out- comes”. Tourism Recreation Research, 40(3), pp. 326-339, doi: 1080/02508281.2015.1075723.
  • EMSEN, Ö.S ve M.K. DEĞER (2004), “Turizm Üzerine Teröriz- min Etkileri: 1984-2001 Türkiye Deneyimi”, Akdeniz İİBF Der- gisi (7), 2004, ss. 67-83.
  • ENDERS,W. and T. SANDLER; (1991), “Causality between transnational terrorism and tourism: The case of Spain”, Ter- rorism, 14, pp. 49-58.
  • ENDERS,W., T. SANDLER, and G. F. PARISE; (1992), “An econometric analysis of the impact of terrorism on tourism”, Kyklos, 45, ss. 531-554.
  • FERIDUN, M.; (2011), “Impact of terrorism on tourism in Tur- key: empirical evidence from Turkey”, Applied Economics, (24), pp. 3349-3354, doi: 10.1080/00036841003636268.
  • GAIBULLOEV, K. and T. SANDLER; (2008), “Growth Conse- quences of Terrorism in Western Europe”, Kyklos 61(3), pp. 424.
  • GAIBULLOEV, K., T. SANDLER and D. SUL; (2010), “New Em- pirics of Transnational Terrorism and Its Impact on Economic
  • Growth,” Third Annual Conference on Terrorism and Policy, Center for Global Collective Action, University of Texas at Dal- las, Richardson, TX, May 20, 2010.
  • GHADERI, Z., B. SABOORI and M. KHOSHKAM; (2016)
  • “Does security matter in tourism demand?”, Current Issues in Tourism, pp. 1-14, doi: 10.1080/13683500.2016.1161603.
  • GRIES, T. and D.MEIERRIEKS; (2010), “From Butter to Guns, from Guns to Butter? Causality Between Terrorism and Eco- nomic Development”, CEA Conference 2010, Quebec City, May 2010.
  • GRIES, T., T. KRIEGER and D. MEIERRIEKS; (2011), “Causal linkages between domestic terrorism and economic growth”
  • GTI, (GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX); (2015), http://economic- sandpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Global-Terrorism- Index-2015.pdf, 08.01.2016.
  • HADDAD, C., A. NASR, E. GHIDA and H. AL IBRAHIM; (2015)
  • “Chapter 1.3. How to Re-Emerge as a Tourism Destination Af- ter a Period of Political Instability ”, in The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2015 Growth through Shocks, (R. Crotti and T. Misrahi, eds.), pp. 53-57, Geneva: World Eco- nomic Forum.
  • ITB (Internationale Tourismus-Börse Berlin); (2015), ITB World Travel Trends Report 2015/2016, Berlin: Messe Berlin GmbH.
  • JENKINS, C.L.; (2015), “Tourism policy and planning for de- velopingcountries: some critical issues”, Tourism Recreation Research, 40(2), pp. 144-156, doi:10.1080/02508281.2015.1
  • JOHANSEN, S. and K. JUSELIUS; (1990), “Maximum Likeli- hood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration– with Applica- tions to the Demand for Money,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), pp. 169–210.
  • KÓNYA, L.; (2006). “Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD Countries with a panel data approach”. Eco- nomic Modelling, 23, pp. 978–992.
  • LEAN, H.H. and R. SMYTH; (2009), “Asian Financial Crisis
  • Avian Flu and Terrorist Threats: Are Shocks to Malaysian Tour- ist Arrivals Permanent or Transitory?”, Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 14(3), pp. 301-321. LLUSA, F. and J. TAVARES; (2006), “Economics and Terror- ism: What We Know, What We Should Know and the Data We
  • Need”, Proceedings of the 10th Annual International Confer- ence on Economics and Security, Thessaloniki, Greece, 22-24 June, 2006.
  • MADANOGLU, M. , M. D. OLSEN and F.A. KWANSA; (2007), “The Impact of Terrorist Bombings on the Market
  • Values of Hospitality and Tourism Enterprises: Global Evi- dence From Turkey, Spain, and Indonesia”, The Journal of Hospitality Financial Management, 15(2), pp. 49-60, doi: 1080/10913211.2007.10653842.
  • MEIERRIEKS, D. and T. GRIES; (2012), “Economic Perfor- mance and Terrorist Activity in Latin America”, Defence and Peace Economics, 23(5), pp. 447-470, doi:10.1080/10242694 2012.656945.
  • MURAT, S., S. ŞENER ve V.YILANCI; (2013), “İktisadi Krizler
  • Doğal Afetler, Terör Faaliyetleri Türkiye'ye Gelen Turistler Üzer- inde Etkili mi?”, İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, 63(1), ss.1-15. PESARAN, M. H., Y. SHIN, and R. J. SMITH, (2001), “Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships”, Jour- nal of Applied Econometrics, 16, pp. 289–326.
  • PESARAN, M.H.; (2004), General Diagnostic Tests for Cross
  • Section Dependence in Panels, CESifo Working Paper 1229; IZA Discussion Paper 1240.[970].
  • RAZA, S.A. and S.T. JAWAID; (2013), “Terrorism and tourism: A conjunction and ramification in Pakistan”, Economic Model- ling, 33 (2013), pp. 65–70
  • SAHA, S. and G. YAP; (2014), “The Moderation Effects of Political Instability and Terrorism on Tourism Development: A Cross-Country Panel Analysis”, Journal of Travel Research, (4), pp. 509-521.
  • SANDLER, T.; (2014), “The analytical study of terrorism: Tak- ing stock”, Journal of Peace Research, 51(2), pp. 257-271.
  • SANTANA-GALLEGO, M., J. ROSELLO-NADAL and J. FOU- RIE; (2016), The effects of terrorism, crime and corruption on tourism, ERSA (Economic Research South Africa) Working Pa- per No. 595, April, 2016.
  • SMYTH, R.,NIELSEN, I and MISHRA,V.; (2009), “ ‘I’ve been to
  • Bali too’(and I will be going back): are terrorist shocks to Bali's tourist arrivals permanent or transitory?”, Applied Economics, (11), pp. 1367-1378, doi: 10.1080/00036840601019356.
  • TOSUN, C. , D. J. TIMOTHY and Y. ÖZTÜRK; (2003), “Tour- ism Growth, National Development and Regional Inequality in
  • Turkey”, Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 11(2-3), pp. 133-161, doi: 10.1080/09669580308667200.
  • TURNER, R. and Z. SEARS; (2013), “Chapter 1.5. Travel &
  • Tourism as a Driver of Employment Growth”, in The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2013 Reducing Barriers to
  • Economic Growth and Job Creation, (J. Blanke and T. Chiesa, eds.), pp. 63-69, Geneva: World Economic Forum. UNWTO (United Nations World Tourism Organisation), 2015.
  • UNWTO Tourism Highlights 2015 Edition. World Tourism Orga- nization, 2015 (Elektronik Kopya), 30.05.2016.
  • YAYA, Mehmet E.; (2009), “Terrorism and Tourism: The Case of Turkey”, Defence and Peace Economics, 20(6), pp. 477-497, doi : 10.1080/10242690903105414.
  • ZELLNER, A.; (1962), “An efficient method of estimating seem- ingly unrelated regressions and tests for aggregation bias”
There are 56 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Selim Başar

Serkan Künü This is me

Sertaç Hopoğlu This is me

Publication Date August 1, 2016
Published in Issue Year 2016 Issue: 618

Cite

APA Başar, S., Künü, S., & Hopoğlu, S. (2016). Terörün BRICS ve MINT Ülkelerindeki Turizm Faaliyetleri Üzerine Etkisi. Finans Politik Ve Ekonomik Yorumlar(618), 43-50.
AMA Başar S, Künü S, Hopoğlu S. Terörün BRICS ve MINT Ülkelerindeki Turizm Faaliyetleri Üzerine Etkisi. FPEYD. August 2016;(618):43-50.
Chicago Başar, Selim, Serkan Künü, and Sertaç Hopoğlu. “Terörün BRICS Ve MINT Ülkelerindeki Turizm Faaliyetleri Üzerine Etkisi”. Finans Politik Ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, no. 618 (August 2016): 43-50.
EndNote Başar S, Künü S, Hopoğlu S (August 1, 2016) Terörün BRICS ve MINT Ülkelerindeki Turizm Faaliyetleri Üzerine Etkisi. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar 618 43–50.
IEEE S. Başar, S. Künü, and S. Hopoğlu, “Terörün BRICS ve MINT Ülkelerindeki Turizm Faaliyetleri Üzerine Etkisi”, FPEYD, no. 618, pp. 43–50, August 2016.
ISNAD Başar, Selim et al. “Terörün BRICS Ve MINT Ülkelerindeki Turizm Faaliyetleri Üzerine Etkisi”. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar 618 (August 2016), 43-50.
JAMA Başar S, Künü S, Hopoğlu S. Terörün BRICS ve MINT Ülkelerindeki Turizm Faaliyetleri Üzerine Etkisi. FPEYD. 2016;:43–50.
MLA Başar, Selim et al. “Terörün BRICS Ve MINT Ülkelerindeki Turizm Faaliyetleri Üzerine Etkisi”. Finans Politik Ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, no. 618, 2016, pp. 43-50.
Vancouver Başar S, Künü S, Hopoğlu S. Terörün BRICS ve MINT Ülkelerindeki Turizm Faaliyetleri Üzerine Etkisi. FPEYD. 2016(618):43-50.