Mortgage Krizi ve YatırımcıPsikolojisi

Year 2016, Issue: 618, 59 - 69, 01.08.2016

Gülbahar Atasever

Abstract

Varlıkların temel değerinden sapması veya ekonomik temellere dayanmayan fiyat artışları olarak tanımlanan köpük kavramı, rasyonel ve irrasyonel (spekülatif) olarak ikiye ayrılmaktadır. Yatırımcıların gelecekteki fiyat artışlarını öngörerek ya da bilişsel önyargılarıyla hareket ederek piyasada kalmaları varlıkların çoğu zaman aşırı değerlenmesine yol açar. Gayrimenkul piyasasında da benzer bir süreç söz konusu olabilmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Mortgage Krizi yatırımcı psikolojisi bağlamında ele alınmıştır. Mortgage krizi sırasında yatırımcılar/yöneticiler pek çok psikolojik duygu/önyargıların etkisi altında kalmıştır. Bunlar temsililik hevristiki, sınırlı rasyonalite, aşırı güven ve risk alabilirlikteki artış, iyimser beklentiler, statüko yanlılığı ve sürü davranışı şeklinde sıralanabilir. Bu bağlamda, Mortgage Krizi’nin ilk aşamalarında aşırı güven, aşırı coşkunluk, iyimser beklentiler, risk alabilirlik piyasalara hakimken; zaman içinde piyasalara olan güvenin kaybolmasıyla birlikte korku, inkar, sürü davranışı gibi eğilimler fiyatlarda çöküşü beraberinde getirmiştir.

Keywords

Gayrimenkul Piyasası, Piyasalarda Köpük oluşumu, Yatırımcı Psikolojisi, Mortgage Krizi

Mortgage Crisis and Investor Psychology

Abstract

Notion of bubble as the deviation of the assets from their basic value or increase in the price that is not based on economic fundamentals can be understood under two headings: rational or irrational (speculative). When investors stay in the market by foreseeing an increase in the price or act according to their cognitive biases often cause the overvaluation of assets. The process is similar in the real estate market. In this study, Mortgage Crisis is taken into account in the context of investor psychology. Investors/managers were under the influence of many psychological biases during the Mortgage Crisis. These can be characterised as representative heuristics, limited rationality, overconfidence and increase in the risk taking behaviour, optimistic expectations, status quo bias and herd behaviour. In this context, overconfidence, excessive exuberance, optimistic expectations, risk taking dominate the market in the initial stages of the Mortgage Crisis. After a while because of the loss of the confidence trends such as fear, rejection, herd behaviour bring about the collapse of the price.

Keywords

The Real Estate Markets, Bubble in the Markets, Investor Psychology, Mortgage Crisis

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