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Mortgage Krizi ve YatırımcıPsikolojisi

Year 2016, Issue: 618, 59 - 69, 01.08.2016

Abstract

Varlıkların temel değerinden sapması veya ekonomik temellere dayanmayan fiyat artışları olarak tanımlanan köpük kavramı, rasyonel ve irrasyonel (spekülatif) olarak ikiye ayrılmaktadır. Yatırımcıların gelecekteki fiyat artışlarını öngörerek ya da bilişsel önyargılarıyla hareket ederek piyasada kalmaları varlıkların çoğu zaman aşırı değerlenmesine yol açar. Gayrimenkul piyasasında da benzer bir süreç söz konusu olabilmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Mortgage Krizi yatırımcı psikolojisi bağlamında ele alınmıştır. Mortgage krizi sırasında yatırımcılar/yöneticiler pek çok psikolojik duygu/önyargıların etkisi altında kalmıştır. Bunlar temsililik hevristiki, sınırlı rasyonalite, aşırı güven ve risk alabilirlikteki artış, iyimser beklentiler, statüko yanlılığı ve sürü davranışı şeklinde sıralanabilir. Bu bağlamda, Mortgage Krizi’nin ilk aşamalarında aşırı güven, aşırı coşkunluk, iyimser beklentiler, risk alabilirlik piyasalara hakimken; zaman içinde piyasalara olan güvenin kaybolmasıyla birlikte korku, inkar, sürü davranışı gibi eğilimler fiyatlarda çöküşü beraberinde getirmiştir.

References

  • ABBES, Mouna Boujelbene (2013), “Does Overconfidence Bias Explain Volatility During the Global Financial Crisis”, World Transition Economy Researh, 19(3), pp.291-312.
  • ALTAY, Erdinç; (2008), “Rational Bubbles in Istanbul Stock Exchange: Lınear and NonLinear Unit Root Tests”, Economics in Emerging Markets, Edt. Lado Beridze, Nova Science Publishers, New York, pp.169-202.
  • BANERJEE, Abhijit V.; (1992), “A Simple Model of Herd Behaviour”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(3), pp.797-817.
  • BARBER, Brad M. and Terrance ODEAN; (2001), “Boys Will Be Boys. Gender, Overconfidence and Common Stock Investment”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, pp.261-292.
  • BARBERIS Nicholas C.; (2011), “Psychology and Financial Crisis of 2007-2008”, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Papers Series, pp.1-16.
  • BARRON, Martin; (2007), “Speculative Bubbles and the Dot. com Era”, ProQuest Dissertations and Theses, Stony Brook University.
  • BAYAR Yılmaz ve Cüneyt KILIÇ (2012), “Küresel Finansal Krizin Davranışsal Finans Perspektifinden Değerlendirilmesi”, İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, 62(2), ss.177-195.
  • BLANCHARD, Olivier J. and Mark W. WATSON; (1982), “Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets”, Nation Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Working Paper Series. (945), pp.1-30.
  • BDDK (2008), “ABD Mortgage Krizi”. Çalışma Tebliği, Sayı:3.
  • BRUNNERMEIER, Markus K.; (2008), “Bubbles”, Durlauf and L. Blume (Ed.), The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. COLLYNS, Charles and Abdelhak SENHADJI; (2002), “Lending Booms, Real Estate Bubbles and the Asian Crisis”, IMF Working Paper, pp.1-45.
  • DIAMOND Peter & Hannu VARTIAINEN (2007), Behavioral Economics and Its Applications, Princeton University Press, New Jersey. DÖM Serpil (2003), “Yatırımcı Psikolojisi”, Değişim Yayınları, İstanbul.
  • FIRAT Emine& Ramazan KURTOĞLU (2015), “Finans Dünyasının Krizler Karşısındaki Belirsizliği Davranışsal Ekonomi”, Aksaray Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 7(1), ss.87-101.
  • GARBER, Peter M.; (1990), “Famous First Bubbles”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 4(2), pp.35-54.
  • GIGERENZER Gerd & Reinhard SELTEN (2002), Bounded Rationality The Adaptive Toolbox, Rethinking Rationality, Edt. Gıgerenzer G&Selten R., MIT Press, USA.
  • GROSSE Robert (2010), “The Global Financial Crisis: A Behavioral View”, SSRN Electronic Journal, http://papers.ssrn. com/sol3/Papers.cfm?abstract_id=1537744
  • KAHNEMAN, Daniel and Amos TVERSKY; (1974), “Judgment Under Uncertainty. Heuristics and Biases”, Science, 185(4157), pp.1124-1131.
  • KOMAROMI, Gyorgy; (2006), Anatomy of Stock Market Bubbles, The ICFAI University Press, India. KINDLEBERGER, Charles P.; (1996), Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises, Wiley, 3rd Edition, New York.
  • KULALI İhsan (2016), “Etkin Piyasalar Hipotezi ve Davranışsal Finans Çatışması”, Finans ve Bankacılık Çalışmaları Dergisi, 5(2), ss.46-57.
  • LAIH Yih-Wenn& Yung-Shi LIAU (2013), “Herding Behaviour During the Subprime Mortgage Crisis: Evdence From Six AsiaPasific Stock Markets”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 5(7), pp.71-84.
  • MOINAS, Sophie and Sebastien POUGET; (2010), “Rational and Irrational Bubbles: An Experiment”, http://spouget.free.fr/ Bubbles.pdf.
  • REDHEAD Keith A.; (2008), “Behavioral Model of the Dot.Com Bubble and Crash”, Economics, Finance and Accounting: Applied Research, Working Paper Series, Coventry University, pp.1-39.
  • SHILLER, Robert J.; (2001), “Bubbles, Human Judgment and Expert Opinion”, Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper, Yale University, (1303), pp.1-16.
  • SZYSZKA, Adam; (2010), “Behavioral Anatomy of the Financial Crisis”, Journal of Centrum Cathedra, 3(2), pp. 121-135.
  • UTKUS, Stephen P. (2011), “Market Bubbles and Investor Psychology”, https://pressroom.vanguard.com/nonindexed/Market_bubbles_and_investor_psychology.pdf. pp.1-12.
  • WIEDEMER, David., Robert WIEDEMER,, A., Cindy SPITZER, Eric JANSZEN (2006), America’s Bubble Economy: Profit When It Pops, John Wiley&Sons..Inc., New Jersey.
  • YAO Shujie &Dan LUO. (2009), “The Economic Psychology of Stock Market Bubbles in China”, The World Economy, 32(5), pp.667-691.
  • http://www.emlakkonut.com.tr/_Assets/Upload/Status/ EKGYO_01a.pdf, “Gayrimenkul ve Konut Sektörüne Bakış”, 2014. (ET.15.08.2016)

Mortgage Crisis and Investor Psychology

Year 2016, Issue: 618, 59 - 69, 01.08.2016

Abstract

Notion of bubble as the deviation of the assets from their basic value or increase in the price that is not based on economic fundamentals can be understood under two headings: rational or irrational (speculative). When investors stay in the market by foreseeing an increase in the price or act according to their cognitive biases often cause the overvaluation of assets. The process is similar in the real estate market. In this study, Mortgage Crisis is taken into account in the context of investor psychology. Investors/managers were under the influence of many psychological biases during the Mortgage Crisis. These can be characterised as representative heuristics, limited rationality, overconfidence and increase in the risk taking behaviour, optimistic expectations, status quo bias and herd behaviour. In this context, overconfidence, excessive exuberance, optimistic expectations, risk taking dominate the market in the initial stages of the Mortgage Crisis. After a while because of the loss of the confidence trends such as fear, rejection, herd behaviour bring about the collapse of the price.

References

  • ABBES, Mouna Boujelbene (2013), “Does Overconfidence Bias Explain Volatility During the Global Financial Crisis”, World Transition Economy Researh, 19(3), pp.291-312.
  • ALTAY, Erdinç; (2008), “Rational Bubbles in Istanbul Stock Exchange: Lınear and NonLinear Unit Root Tests”, Economics in Emerging Markets, Edt. Lado Beridze, Nova Science Publishers, New York, pp.169-202.
  • BANERJEE, Abhijit V.; (1992), “A Simple Model of Herd Behaviour”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(3), pp.797-817.
  • BARBER, Brad M. and Terrance ODEAN; (2001), “Boys Will Be Boys. Gender, Overconfidence and Common Stock Investment”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, pp.261-292.
  • BARBERIS Nicholas C.; (2011), “Psychology and Financial Crisis of 2007-2008”, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Papers Series, pp.1-16.
  • BARRON, Martin; (2007), “Speculative Bubbles and the Dot. com Era”, ProQuest Dissertations and Theses, Stony Brook University.
  • BAYAR Yılmaz ve Cüneyt KILIÇ (2012), “Küresel Finansal Krizin Davranışsal Finans Perspektifinden Değerlendirilmesi”, İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, 62(2), ss.177-195.
  • BLANCHARD, Olivier J. and Mark W. WATSON; (1982), “Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets”, Nation Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Working Paper Series. (945), pp.1-30.
  • BDDK (2008), “ABD Mortgage Krizi”. Çalışma Tebliği, Sayı:3.
  • BRUNNERMEIER, Markus K.; (2008), “Bubbles”, Durlauf and L. Blume (Ed.), The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. COLLYNS, Charles and Abdelhak SENHADJI; (2002), “Lending Booms, Real Estate Bubbles and the Asian Crisis”, IMF Working Paper, pp.1-45.
  • DIAMOND Peter & Hannu VARTIAINEN (2007), Behavioral Economics and Its Applications, Princeton University Press, New Jersey. DÖM Serpil (2003), “Yatırımcı Psikolojisi”, Değişim Yayınları, İstanbul.
  • FIRAT Emine& Ramazan KURTOĞLU (2015), “Finans Dünyasının Krizler Karşısındaki Belirsizliği Davranışsal Ekonomi”, Aksaray Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 7(1), ss.87-101.
  • GARBER, Peter M.; (1990), “Famous First Bubbles”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 4(2), pp.35-54.
  • GIGERENZER Gerd & Reinhard SELTEN (2002), Bounded Rationality The Adaptive Toolbox, Rethinking Rationality, Edt. Gıgerenzer G&Selten R., MIT Press, USA.
  • GROSSE Robert (2010), “The Global Financial Crisis: A Behavioral View”, SSRN Electronic Journal, http://papers.ssrn. com/sol3/Papers.cfm?abstract_id=1537744
  • KAHNEMAN, Daniel and Amos TVERSKY; (1974), “Judgment Under Uncertainty. Heuristics and Biases”, Science, 185(4157), pp.1124-1131.
  • KOMAROMI, Gyorgy; (2006), Anatomy of Stock Market Bubbles, The ICFAI University Press, India. KINDLEBERGER, Charles P.; (1996), Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises, Wiley, 3rd Edition, New York.
  • KULALI İhsan (2016), “Etkin Piyasalar Hipotezi ve Davranışsal Finans Çatışması”, Finans ve Bankacılık Çalışmaları Dergisi, 5(2), ss.46-57.
  • LAIH Yih-Wenn& Yung-Shi LIAU (2013), “Herding Behaviour During the Subprime Mortgage Crisis: Evdence From Six AsiaPasific Stock Markets”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 5(7), pp.71-84.
  • MOINAS, Sophie and Sebastien POUGET; (2010), “Rational and Irrational Bubbles: An Experiment”, http://spouget.free.fr/ Bubbles.pdf.
  • REDHEAD Keith A.; (2008), “Behavioral Model of the Dot.Com Bubble and Crash”, Economics, Finance and Accounting: Applied Research, Working Paper Series, Coventry University, pp.1-39.
  • SHILLER, Robert J.; (2001), “Bubbles, Human Judgment and Expert Opinion”, Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper, Yale University, (1303), pp.1-16.
  • SZYSZKA, Adam; (2010), “Behavioral Anatomy of the Financial Crisis”, Journal of Centrum Cathedra, 3(2), pp. 121-135.
  • UTKUS, Stephen P. (2011), “Market Bubbles and Investor Psychology”, https://pressroom.vanguard.com/nonindexed/Market_bubbles_and_investor_psychology.pdf. pp.1-12.
  • WIEDEMER, David., Robert WIEDEMER,, A., Cindy SPITZER, Eric JANSZEN (2006), America’s Bubble Economy: Profit When It Pops, John Wiley&Sons..Inc., New Jersey.
  • YAO Shujie &Dan LUO. (2009), “The Economic Psychology of Stock Market Bubbles in China”, The World Economy, 32(5), pp.667-691.
  • http://www.emlakkonut.com.tr/_Assets/Upload/Status/ EKGYO_01a.pdf, “Gayrimenkul ve Konut Sektörüne Bakış”, 2014. (ET.15.08.2016)
There are 27 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Gülbahar Atasever

Publication Date August 1, 2016
Published in Issue Year 2016 Issue: 618

Cite

APA Atasever, G. (2016). Mortgage Krizi ve YatırımcıPsikolojisi. Finans Politik Ve Ekonomik Yorumlar(618), 59-69.
AMA Atasever G. Mortgage Krizi ve YatırımcıPsikolojisi. FPEYD. August 2016;(618):59-69.
Chicago Atasever, Gülbahar. “Mortgage Krizi Ve YatırımcıPsikolojisi”. Finans Politik Ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, no. 618 (August 2016): 59-69.
EndNote Atasever G (August 1, 2016) Mortgage Krizi ve YatırımcıPsikolojisi. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar 618 59–69.
IEEE G. Atasever, “Mortgage Krizi ve YatırımcıPsikolojisi”, FPEYD, no. 618, pp. 59–69, August 2016.
ISNAD Atasever, Gülbahar. “Mortgage Krizi Ve YatırımcıPsikolojisi”. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar 618 (August 2016), 59-69.
JAMA Atasever G. Mortgage Krizi ve YatırımcıPsikolojisi. FPEYD. 2016;:59–69.
MLA Atasever, Gülbahar. “Mortgage Krizi Ve YatırımcıPsikolojisi”. Finans Politik Ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, no. 618, 2016, pp. 59-69.
Vancouver Atasever G. Mortgage Krizi ve YatırımcıPsikolojisi. FPEYD. 2016(618):59-6.